Gail
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30% hatched area on Day 3.
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Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread
- Thread starter Kory
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MattW
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While everyone's focused on the headline-maker out west, it's looking like a bit of a weaker threat for N Georgia. There's still the threat for tornadoes embedded in the line of storms, but I don't think it's nearly what will be happening to the west.
Looking at everything this morning, not much has changed. However, I do think the timing of this event is coming into light. The line of storms in Mississippi will likely slow down as the upper low pivots, this slowing down will be just what is needed to allow the warm sector to become more unstable Saturday morning/midday and lead to supercells. However, once the upper low pivots the whole system will begin to accelerate by mid morning Saturday. This may cause the line to catch up to the supercells and merge, and the line itself will likely become the major player. If the pivot happens a little earlier than expected, the warm sector may not have time to reach maximum potential as the whole system will be charging eastward through Mississippi. If it happens a little later, the risk of supercells is higher for Alabama. If it is too late, the dynamics will max out a little east of the higher instability.
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- #64
Kory
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This continues to look like a significant severe weather event. At the very LEAST, this will be a QLCS that will produce widespread damaging winds. Given some of the LLJ values in excess of 75kts, this may be destructive winds. The warm sector will be key. The shear values are so high, we will need enough instability to get the updrafts going to produce supercells and tornadoes in the warm sector ahead...otherwise they’ll get torn apart. If we do get sustained updrafts with the cellular convection, all bets is we will have tornadoes...some possibly strong.
Timhsv
Member
IMO, this kicks it up another notch if the surface low is down to 998, in this position, and and strengthening to the NE.
**Update: 06Z has it down to 996 near LIT
**Update: 06Z has it down to 996 near LIT
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- #66
Kory
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Does the 06z euro show warm sector cellular convection?
Timhsv
Member
Yes, to some degree. It reflects the QLCS looks more broken up
the euro
One thing that stands out to me is that this lower pressure is happening just before the system begins to tilt which tells me the strongest pressure falls are just beginning...so the pressure will likely go lower.
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- #69
Kory
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The euro has a CAM resolution of the 06z which shows several supercells out ahead of the main line which is broken segments. Oh boy.
where do you see this?
Equus
Member
I don't usually get storm anxiety anymore, but this setup has me pretty on edge if nothing backs down. Looks like even a failure mode would bring nasty winds with a statewide QLCS. Pretty high ceiling on this one.
CheeselandSkies
Member
For Friday afteroon over E. Texas, EHI ticked up again on the 12Z NAM but VBV is quite pronounced above 850mb in forecast soundings from the most unstable areas. That's not a look for sustained open warm sector tornadic supercells. There could be some pretty potent QLCS tornadoes though with the amount of turning below 850mb.
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skelly
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I’m with you. Not happy about what I’m hearing so far...
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- #74
Kory
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Private chat on Discord.
Ok, I am not aware of any cam parameters on the euro, but maybe something has changed.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Shear profiles are more impressive over southern parts of MS/AL/the FL panhandle for Saturday, with adequate instability as early as 15Z (9 AM CST). Could be a nasty day for that area if this look holds up. There's a slight amount of VBV in this sounding but not nearly as much as progged by the NAM for Friday. IIRC the profiles looked similar going into 12/16.
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I used to never have storm anxiety. Never bothered me. Until the morning of April 27, 2011 and a funnel cloud went right over my house. (We heard it and I saw my neighbor's tree kissing the ground.) There have since been two more funnel clouds to go over the house (one touched down a mile away), so now I get anxious when we have an event, especially a potentially high-end event.
Equus
Member
I'm honestly thinking this becomes one long sustained two day outbreak if the QLCS stays together in thar shear profile from Friday through Saturday. Just spitting tornadoes out all along its length for two days if there's not a fly in that ointment by game time.
the real issue with the 12z nam is that low level instability doesn't go as far north as has been shown by the Euro. It limits Td's in the upper 50's, 60's are further south. It this is true, it will be correct as the shear will tear apart the weak updrafts, but this goes against what we the models have been showing thus far.
Equus
Member
The Euro keeps saying Mississippians should find a bunker Friday night, yeesh. Remains the most aggressive model. NAM doesn't want to bring dews in as far as the Euro thinks into AL which makes me question isolated cell potential buuuut that's just the NAM for now I think; the timing also says late morning but WAA would override time of day with a system this potent.
