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Invest 92L/Hurricane Isaias Severe WX

Not many models are handling the outer band production well atm. I'm going to play the outsider and say I'll be careful with the wording but it's got a good ceiling going for it tor wise. I can't wait for CAMs to come in.
 
Think I'll revert some of my wording for now. I'm beginning to question instability as a whole with this one. Models consistently frequent warm temps aloft/entrainment that would likely mean a imbalance of shear/instability. I have a feeling models are probably underplaying some portion of this, but regardless, I'm not Gung Ho on the sigtor threat at the minute. Although with high low level shear, several tornadoes are a clear possibility late Friday night as Isaias makes landfall.


This belongs in the SW thread but there's a signal for well next week in the Plains that models are beginning to get together on. I believe the Plains will return to svr potential. Intensity TBD.

I have a feeling too that the FL Panhandle isn't where this threat will fully peak. The Carolinas in a remnant stage could be more intriguing given good dry air but not too much entrainment so strong shear and instability combines in the area.
 
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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Think I'll revert some of my wording for now. I'm beginning to question instability as a whole with this one. Models consistently frequent warm temps aloft/entrainment that would likely mean a imbalance of shear/instability. I have a feeling models are probably underplaying some portion of this, but regardless, I'm not Gung Ho on the sigtor threat at the minute. Although with high low level shear, several tornadoes are a clear possibility late Friday night as Isaias makes landfall.


This belongs in the SW thread but there's a signal for well next week in the Plains that models are beginning to get together on. I believe the Plains will return to svr potential. Intensity TBD.

I have a feeling too that the FL Panhandle isn't where this threat will fully peak. The Carolinas in a remnant stage could be more intriguing given good dry air but not too much entrainment so strong shear and instability combines in the area.
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Though it is Dixie..in regards to instability.
 
Kds86z said:
Though it is Dixie..
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You sound a bit like a certain guy on here when you say that haha, just would've given a extra grade if you said Dixie does what it wants LOL

In all seriousness, yes, but the magical trope of it being Dixie doesn't necessarily mean these issues will just be dismissed. I know instability will probably increase a little bit so my comment is absolutely subject to change but yeah
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
You sound a bit like a certain guy on here when you say that haha, just would've given a extra grade if you said Dixie does what it wants LOL

In all seriousness, yes, but the magical trope of it being Dixie doesn't necessarily mean these issues will just be dismissed. I know instability will probably increase a little bit so my comment is absolutely subject to change but yeah
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Yeah for sure. Just never know is my thinking. I lean toward 50/50.
 
Kds86z said:
Yeah for sure. Just never know is my thinking. I lean toward 50/50.
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Completely fair perspective. We all don't know what will happen honestly, neither d the models. They're just grasps on what could be
 
A bit off topic, but if alabama and Georgia play as planned saturday night. It's gonna be a difficult day to throw the long ball lol.

My wife's going to be aggravated at me as well, for watching the weather and football all day saturday so im going to have to make sure I get all my chores done and more beforehand hahaha.
 
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