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Invest 92L/Hurricane Isaias Severe WX

Not many models are handling the outer band production well atm. I'm going to play the outsider and say I'll be careful with the wording but it's got a good ceiling going for it tor wise. I can't wait for CAMs to come in.
 
Think I'll revert some of my wording for now. I'm beginning to question instability as a whole with this one. Models consistently frequent warm temps aloft/entrainment that would likely mean a imbalance of shear/instability. I have a feeling models are probably underplaying some portion of this, but regardless, I'm not Gung Ho on the sigtor threat at the minute. Although with high low level shear, several tornadoes are a clear possibility late Friday night as Isaias makes landfall.


This belongs in the SW thread but there's a signal for well next week in the Plains that models are beginning to get together on. I believe the Plains will return to svr potential. Intensity TBD.

I have a feeling too that the FL Panhandle isn't where this threat will fully peak. The Carolinas in a remnant stage could be more intriguing given good dry air but not too much entrainment so strong shear and instability combines in the area.
 
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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Think I'll revert some of my wording for now. I'm beginning to question instability as a whole with this one. Models consistently frequent warm temps aloft/entrainment that would likely mean a imbalance of shear/instability. I have a feeling models are probably underplaying some portion of this, but regardless, I'm not Gung Ho on the sigtor threat at the minute. Although with high low level shear, several tornadoes are a clear possibility late Friday night as Isaias makes landfall.


This belongs in the SW thread but there's a signal for well next week in the Plains that models are beginning to get together on. I believe the Plains will return to svr potential. Intensity TBD.

I have a feeling too that the FL Panhandle isn't where this threat will fully peak. The Carolinas in a remnant stage could be more intriguing given good dry air but not too much entrainment so strong shear and instability combines in the area.
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Though it is Dixie..in regards to instability.
 
Kds86z said:
Though it is Dixie..
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You sound a bit like a certain guy on here when you say that haha, just would've given a extra grade if you said Dixie does what it wants LOL

In all seriousness, yes, but the magical trope of it being Dixie doesn't necessarily mean these issues will just be dismissed. I know instability will probably increase a little bit so my comment is absolutely subject to change but yeah
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
You sound a bit like a certain guy on here when you say that haha, just would've given a extra grade if you said Dixie does what it wants LOL

In all seriousness, yes, but the magical trope of it being Dixie doesn't necessarily mean these issues will just be dismissed. I know instability will probably increase a little bit so my comment is absolutely subject to change but yeah
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Yeah for sure. Just never know is my thinking. I lean toward 50/50.
 
Kds86z said:
Yeah for sure. Just never know is my thinking. I lean toward 50/50.
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Completely fair perspective. We all don't know what will happen honestly, neither d the models. They're just grasps on what could be
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Completely fair perspective. We all don't know what will happen honestly, neither d the models. They're just grasps on what could be
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My big question is how far west the low makes landfall, could drastically increase the size or the tornado outbreak if it were to occur.
 
A bit off topic, but if alabama and Georgia play as planned saturday night. It's gonna be a difficult day to throw the long ball lol.

My wife's going to be aggravated at me as well, for watching the weather and football all day saturday so im going to have to make sure I get all my chores done and more beforehand hahaha.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
My big question is how far west the low makes landfall, could drastically increase the size or the tornado outbreak if it were to occur.
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The thing is that the more I am looking at model data, I am looking drastically less convinced of a long duration inland tor event here and even more skeptical of anything significant. Time for a "debunking hype" writeup instead.

I'm beginning to see that social media is being a bit too influenced by Milton comparisons when in reality, it's not a good comparison. Look at how pinched this warm sector is after it makes landfall via the GFS (I know but there see other models suggesting this general warm sector size too.)

sfcthetae_b.us_se.png
If you want a good prolific inland event, you need a larger warm sector and plus, look how detached the low is. Half of your outer bands will be interacting with lesser moisture and weaker theta-E. Profiles are marginally favorable for transient supercells in this area, but not a higher end, long lived tropical tor event. I'm beginning to look less and less convinced at a genuinely notable tropical tor event here.

I'm liking the Carolinas a LOT more as of now with tornado potential. Favorable large warm sector and it's unknown atm how strong the remnant jet response will actually be as to low level shear in this vicinity but instability will be there with this one.

And I've got a big time analog to this to convince the majority of you about this too. Hurricane Nate. In October 2017, this thing is extremely similar. It dropped 8 tornadoes in Alabama, but none above EF-2 intensity, whereas the remnants decayed in the Carolinas and yet dropped two EF2s. My concerns about the Carolinas here are the potential for stuff to grow rather upscale along the low's outer bands as a result of this front also sagging through. Nate is extremely similar in nature, and i personally believe that this type of scenario will likely verify. Nate had a lack of destabilising but strong shear still pulled EF0-EF1 tornadoes out and when the system had access to dry air + 3CAPE and strong shear, a brief sigtor risk verified in a area not looked at. There's my thoughts on this one.


sfcthetae_b.conus.png


Screenshot_2026-10-08-00-00-17-416.jpeg
 
Kds86z said:
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This guy is like one of the biggest shitposters on WXTwitter. Hard to tell if he's being legit or not but I'm gonna vouch that there are definitely differences within those both soundings. Milton absolutely had 2k-3k SBCAPE too, it was not that low as RAP said. Far more different.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
This guy is like one of the biggest shitposters on WXTwitter. Hard to tell if he's being legit or not but I'm gonna vouch that there are definitely differences within those both soundings. Milton absolutely had 2k-3k SBCAPE too, it was not that low as RAP said. Far more different.
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Good to know thanks. I’m not following him so idk why his posts popping up. Will block or mute.
 
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Kds86z said:
Good to know thanks. I’m not following him so idk why his posts popping up. Will block or mute.
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Oh, no, like when he doesn't shitpost, he's solid but I think it's a pretty stupid engagement post to make. Just that's all
 
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