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Hurricane Ida

Some pretty strong wording from the NHC in the latest forecast discussion.

"Based on all of this information, there is
higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will be
approaching the Gulf coast late in the weekend."
 
latest update has a major hurricane approaching the coast of Louisiana

 
Unfortunately, it looks like the reminants of Ida could affect the same areas of western middle Tennessee affected by flash flooding last weekend with more heavy rain early next week.
 
I have an uneasy feeling about this one as it relates to New Orleans. I’ve been telling my family for the last couple days there to prepare for a Cat 3 or low end Cat 4. NHC is saying their current intensity forecast is well below the FSU super ensemble.

Also, as the city sits about 40 miles east of the current track, I’ve noticed these have a tendency to inch right as they approach to coastline. And considering the system is still under light SSW shear, that center has been getting nudged further N of forecast. Just not a good spot for the city to be in.

Oh yeah, 3 main storm water pumping stations are inoperable too!

 
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Not there quite yet -


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 82.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 82.1 West. Ida is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion
should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western
Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf
of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall
along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Reports from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
today and Ida is expected to be a hurricane when it nears western
Cuba later today. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when
Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the
weekend, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane when it
approaches the northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently
reported on Cayman Brac and a wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) has
been observed on Cayo Largo, Cuba, within the past hour or two.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
Kory said:
She’s knocking on the door of hurricane as she approaches Cuba. Per satellite and recon, sure seems like rapid intensification is beginning.
Click to expand...
Certainly seems like she's strengthening ahead of schedule, and very little land interaction to slow it down.
 
This really does feel like a perfect storm (no pun intended) scenario for it to intensify rapidly all the way up to landfall.

 
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