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Hurricane Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto

18ZGFS is yet another scenario - Imelda never makes landfall, Humberto catches her right before and pulls her out to sea.
 
18Z ECMWF follows the GFS, Imelda stays really undeveloped almost all the way to the SC coast, then gets pulled out by Humberto. I like this - hope this trend of no landfall scenarios continues!
 
I'm just having a hard time believing that with every other storm overperforming in intensity that Imelda is going to struggle as much as forecast. Maybe the models are thinking it will suck in some of the slug of dry air currently in the northern Gulf?
 
Humberto has had a 70mph (75 to 145) wind increase in 18 hours and a 50mbar (990 to 940) pressure drop as well.

Interestingly, Humberto 2025 has had a bigger wind increase in 18 hours than Humberto 2007 did. Hurricane Humberto in 2007 only saw a 50mph wind increase in 18 hours.
 
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00ZGFS coming in. Closer to the FL coast, but then a hard right turn out to sea off the GA coast as Humberto pulls Imelda out to dance.
 
Humberto is still forecast to become the second Category 5 of the hurricane season, but it seems to be keeping its eye stable
 
The errors from 48-hours ago for the GFS -- the "center" is significantly further west than forecast.
1758979207815.png




Just to show this, to make landfall in Jacksonville, Florida, the 12z official Best Track just needs to be 145 n mi off the current center prediction.

1758979575490.png




Here's my rendition of the current chances of sustained winds at any point in the next 120 hours. The algorithm uses the NHC track and forecast wind radii, 5-year error distribution, and a Monte Carlo simulation of 3000 possible jiggles of the track in order to produce its estimates. These numbers will inevitably change as time goes on. Notably, it currently keeps all hurricane-force winds offshore.


1758980007518.png
 
Jacob Aden said:
View attachment 46730

That will do it, Imelda has formed. (Yes, I know, it is technically only a TD, based on the storm's structure, Imelda will be along shortly.)
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Well the rocket is about to launch with this one now that we got a center so quickly
 
Wow, what a change in modelling over just a day or so. Forecasts now mostly favor the storm center remaining offshore. Worth noting, though, as @wx_guy mentioned, the center is further west than anticipated by guidance. Good chance it pulls a Dorian and scrapes by the eastern coast of FL.
1758984534400.png1758984546513.png
 
Officially TD9 as of the 11:00 A.M update. Still has a bit of work to do, either killing off or absorbing the southern end of the wave axis. Conditions in the Bahamas are extremely favorable for intensification. I would not be surprised at all if Imelda exceeds the current intensity guidance.
 
Clancy said:
Wow, what a change in modelling over just a day or so. Forecasts now mostly favor the storm center remaining offshore. Worth noting, though, as @wx_guy mentioned, the center is further west than anticipated by guidance. Good chance it pulls a Dorian and scrapes by the eastern coast of FL.
View attachment 46731View attachment 46732
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Hopefully, they don't windshield wiper their way back over the Carolinas.
 
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