TornadoFan
Member
So it just dropped 13 mb? Jeez.Down to 905mb!
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So it just dropped 13 mb? Jeez.Down to 905mb!
I wonder if they will rise the surge potential? Maybe 20'+?I shudder to think the size and depth of the dome of water being built up under Milton.
Yeah, the category at landfall really doesn't matter. the water has been piled up higher and higher and has momentum to the northeast. The surge is going to be historic.880 would mean ( gulp ) 200mph would be highly likely.
The stronger it gets, the greater the surge, no matter if it's a 4 or 3 at landfall.
I've seen what a cat 5 surge in a weakening cat 3 hurricane can do at landfall. I worked the aftermath of Katrina.
The NHC has only assigned active hurricanes winds over 185 mph 1x & that was Patricia, which it gave 200, & that later turned out to be 215. I guess Allen had 190, but that was in 1980. I feel like the FL Keys Hurricane, Gilbert & Wilma peaked at higher than 185 given their extreme pressures. But the NHC stuck with 185, at least for Gilbert & Wilma. EDIT: And why was Camille scaled back from 190 to 175?880 would mean ( gulp ) 200mph would be highly likely.
The stronger it gets, the greater the surge, no matter if it's a 4 or 3 at landfall.
I've seen what a cat 5 surge in a weakening cat 3 hurricane can do at landfall. I worked the aftermath of Katrina.
I expect an official update soon with those numbers…ADT up to 7.6 with pressure down to 900mb with 158 kts (180mph)
ADT up to 7.6 with pressure down to 900mb with 158 kts (180mph)
And you also have to consider the stress already put on it by Helene, tooI am not an engineer but I just don't see how that water wall built around Tampa General can hold up to not just the surge, but the incredible wave action on top with winds. It was tested with Helene being far away.