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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Erin

Hurricane Erin

Lake Martin EF4 said:
Holy excrement it's already a major hurricane. 120 MPH. Forecast peak up to 150 MPH.

For some statistics nerdery, this is the first major hurricane named with a female name on List 5 since Michelle in 2001. A 24 year gap.
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And it’s rare occasion where a name becomes a MH more than once without retirement.

Erin was a Category 3 in 2001, so this current iteration of Erin is the strongest one seen ever.
 
This thing is also moving nearly due west, just north of due west.
 
wx_guy said:
It's outside of the forecast Cone from 5 AM.
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Think this could reach the Bahamas? I feel like it could. The east coast definitely should watch this closely due to how far west it is getting.
 
For both 48 hours and 72 hours, the Bahamas landfall would be > 100th percentile of errors from the past 5 years, which would mean IF it were possible, it'd be an unprecedented error on the forecasts (looking back the past 5 years). So extremely unlikely, but who knows?

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Yeah I think this is a Cat 5 now, with winds likely 165 mph or so.

EDIT: I stand corrected, if the dropsonde is accurate, it's still a solid Cat 4.

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I guess maybe the ICON model was onto something after all for once.
 
Atlantic said:
I guess maybe the ICON model was onto something after all for once.
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True, let's just hope not as far west as the ICON.

It's about 30 minutes before either plane hits the center again, so I'm betting it will be a bonified Cat 5 by that point.
 
wx_guy said:
True, let's just hope not as far west as the ICON.

It's about 30 minutes before either plane hits the center again, so I'm betting it will be a bonified Cat 5 by that point.
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So at the rate Erin is intensifying it could hit sub-900 mbs in just a few hours barring another surprise shear or SAL or an EWRC.
 
The thing that is the biggest thing at this point (if there was something to question at all) is that northeast ridge in particular modeling the strength effectively at the mid levels. It may be that the storm is being influenced by its’ mid level flow which could be very well stronger than advertised. I’m not totally convinced yet that ridge in the northeast Atlantic is going to just totally collapse. Even on X this morning it was mentioned that west to south west motion was too long for it to just be considered a typical wobble.
 
majorhurricane1703 said:
The thing that is the biggest thing at this point (if there was something to question at all) is that northeast ridge in particular modeling that effectively at the mid levels. It may be that the storm is being influenced by its’ mid level flow which could be very well stronger than advertised. I’m not totally convinced yet that ridge in the northeast Atlantic is going to just totally collapse.
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It is still continuing westwards. It also is south of the current cone too. That to me is very concerning for the future trajectory of this thing.
 
Atlantic said:
It is still continuing westwards. It also is south of the current cone too. That to me is very concerning for the future trajectory of this thing.
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Well remember also before it reached north of the islands it was delaying moving west northwest for 24 hours. I highly doubt that happens in this case, but it can’t be discounted either.
 
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