I am still in the camp of non-OTS though.
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Current Tropical Systems Erin
Hurricane Erin
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wx_guy
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I'm actually a bit confused -- the 0z best track position still has it at 16.3 N...but looking at the satellite, I can't possibly believe that. It looks to my eyes to be at 16N or maybe lower.
We haven’t gotten a good microwave pass yet to determine whether the satellite trend is valid, so I can see why 00Z stayed there. Should we get a pass I could guess we might see a revision of that point of the track.
majorhurricane1703
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I still don’t think it is moving WNW. It may be out of the NHC cone soon if that’s the case, because I agree with what you are saying.
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wx_guy
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Just more observations.
5 PM forecast (8/11) for 2 AM Thursday morning:
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.8N 47.0W
5 AM forecast (8/12) for 2 AM Thursday morning:
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.4N 46.8W
5 PM forecast (8/12) for 2 AM Thursday morning:
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.6N 46.8W
5 AM forecast (8/13) for 2 AM Thursday morning:
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.5N 47.1W
5 PM forecast (8/13) for 2 AM Thursday morning:
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.3N 47.2W
We're about 4 hours from that point, wonder what latitude it'll be at...
5 PM forecast (8/11) for 2 AM Thursday morning:
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.8N 47.0W
5 AM forecast (8/12) for 2 AM Thursday morning:
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.4N 46.8W
5 PM forecast (8/12) for 2 AM Thursday morning:
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.6N 46.8W
5 AM forecast (8/13) for 2 AM Thursday morning:
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.5N 47.1W
5 PM forecast (8/13) for 2 AM Thursday morning:
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.3N 47.2W
We're about 4 hours from that point, wonder what latitude it'll be at...
Cyclonic Paracosm
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I cast, this does not look good, wow its gonna look insane come morning
majorhurricane1703
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The NHC at 11 pm elected to keep it at 16.3 N. Don’t understand that. It definitely is not higher than 16.1 N.
That’s certainly an ominous look.
Cyclonic Paracosm
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Waiting for new scans?? But towns now, I wanna see what comes next cuz that is uhm, slightly concerning
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wx_guy
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The plot is now outside the NHC from 48 hours ago.
The NHC Cone goes out 67 miles at 48 hours, so we see over the past 24 hours, the trend has been outside the 48-hour cone, with the storm to the south about 70-80 nautical miles, This is 85-90 statute miles.
If the trend continues, Puerto Rico may be in play.
The NHC Cone goes out 67 miles at 48 hours, so we see over the past 24 hours, the trend has been outside the 48-hour cone, with the storm to the south about 70-80 nautical miles, This is 85-90 statute miles.
If the trend continues, Puerto Rico may be in play.
That’s very concerning. Also seeing shifts to the west too so we will need to pay even closer attention to this storm.
Recon is set to fly into Erin tonight so we will get a better understanding of Erin’s true intensity and pressure.
majorhurricane1703
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I was watching a live video podcast channel late last night and there are some new concerning trends. The GFS does move it north but the high builds farther offshore the northeast coast and the storm gets trapped as it moves north. Something to watch.
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As of the 8 AM best track update, Erin is up to 60 mph. Also, moving due west. Here's the updated NHC Cone from 48 hours ago - it's almost out of the Cone, but not quite. But the NHC clearly expected the WNW turn before now, and it hasn't happened yet.
In fact, if we look at the cone issued just last night, it's still moving south of even that forecast.
The 3-day error for the Official NHC track is about 120 statute miles (106 nautical miles), and it's mostly in the southern direction and a bit west of forecast. The forecast 3 days ago predicted Erin would be at 18 N at this time, but instead, it's closer to 16 N. In addition to this changing the eventual trajectory, I wonder if this will make it harder for any weakness between the High pressures to even pick Erin up. Definitely a worrying trend.
In fact, if we look at the cone issued just last night, it's still moving south of even that forecast.
The 3-day error for the Official NHC track is about 120 statute miles (106 nautical miles), and it's mostly in the southern direction and a bit west of forecast. The forecast 3 days ago predicted Erin would be at 18 N at this time, but instead, it's closer to 16 N. In addition to this changing the eventual trajectory, I wonder if this will make it harder for any weakness between the High pressures to even pick Erin up. Definitely a worrying trend.
joshoctober16
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semi offtopic but what is going on to its south? looks like giant waves or something, whatever this is its slowly moving northeast.
If it gets caught between highs, the best thing we can hope for is that it stalls and weakens. But something tells me that that won’t.
majorhurricane1703
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Still moving west as of 11 am. It will be interesting to see just how much longer that will continue. Another 6 hours of this and the islands will almost certainly be in play.
Cyclonic Paracosm
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thats a jump from last night woow
warneagle
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I mean this is exactly what was forecast all along. It was just a matter of waiting for it to get to the better SSTs/less dry air today.
majorhurricane1703
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It’s at a higher latitude than yesterday, but not by much with respect to the latitude reported by the NHC. Still thinking it is moving westward despite gaining some latitude.