Hurricane Hurricane Beryl

1719931639384.png

Def some mid level dry air intrusion to the CDO, NW quadrant. Big blow up of convection NE. Come on shear, we are all cheering for you, and Jamaica will thank you. <fingers crossed>
 
Great visualization of the intensity of Beryl over time. Fingers crossed it weakens considerably and hopefully will mostly avert Hispaniola altogether, they have enough things to contend with lately. Jamaica (and its nearly 3 million inhabitants) are in serious danger, however.
 
Fox Weather keeps talking about dry air entrainment in Beryl. There's hardly any significant dry air around Beryl.....
 

Attachments

  • g16split-1.jpg
    g16split-1.jpg
    567.1 KB · Views: 0
I know it's still very far out, but most recent runs of the GFS are supportive of Beryl turning towards the US, with the most recent run showing Beryl intensifying very rapidly in the Gulf and hitting the southern tip of Texas as a strong category 2 hurricane. Also of note, all GFS models that I see are showing it directly impacting Jamaica.

The Euro still has it hitting Mexico as a pretty weak TS.
 
I think the NHC has made it clear in recent discussions on Beryl that no one effing knows what it’s going to do anymore LOL it has defied all odds and expectations and the models can’t agree on how to handle it. Lots of uncertainty in both track and intensity beyond 60 hours.
 
wx_guy said:
I think the NHC has made it clear in recent discussions on Beryl that no one effing knows what it’s going to do anymore LOL it has defied all odds and expectations and the models can’t agree on how to handle it. Lots of uncertainty in both track and intensity beyond 60 hours.
Click to expand...
Which isn't unique to Beryl. Beryl has defied expectations, but long term track/intensity forecasts are almost always inaccurate.
 
What a beast. Hanging on well. Shear continues to relax in front of her as she moves - now no 40s left on the map. Structure looks good - CDO consolidated and now we get a bit of the "compressed SW" look to her as some of that shear is still managing to impact some of Beryl, but a big, very symmetrical blow up of convection at the core. A very healthy Beryl still at noon. I'm getting more and more concerned about Jamaica.

1719941622352.png

1719941796433.png

NOAA9 Mission #10 is starting now, so we'll soon know what this mornings effects have been. Hoping we see winds down some - but concerned we won't.
 
Last edited:
Winds down to 155mph as of 1pm CDT
 
Looks like it's beginning another EWRC. Can anyone confirm?
 
Not EWRC I don't think - eye looks stable on Mimic. Or at least was most recently.
 
Meanwhile, I officially have 60 (with more to come) satellite images/animations of Beryl saved to put into the PowerPoint I'll be working on post season.
 
These videos by Brandon display clear cut high end cat4 damage.

The bottom third video at minute 6:30 shows a school made out of pretty thick concrete being leveled, even swept slightly.

Definitely the work of a mesovorticy since the smaller structure clearly made of the same materials next to it is untouched.


 
And of course, Mother Nature decides to spin off a high-end Category 4 landfall in Grenada and earliest Category 5 on record, in the same storm, before the season has really even started...

Anyhow, those damage shots from Cariacou are nasty. I'd be willing to bet money the most severe wind damage (the one that popped into mind is the image of that concrete building literally leveled right next to ones still standing) was caused by so-called "mini swirls". Ted Fujita studied them in the aftermath of Hurricanes Andrew and Iniki, and the research he put into them is so fascinating. These mini swirls are not true tornadoes, as eyewall mesovortices contribute to their formation but the swirls do not connect with any convective cloud bases. In Hurricane Andrew, he estimated that these swirls lasted no more than a second or two, but possibly had wind gusts up to 200 mph.
 
TH2002 said:
And of course, Mother Nature decides to spin off a high-end Category 4 landfall in Grenada and earliest Category 5 on record, in the same storm, before the season has really even started...

Anyhow, those damage shots from Cariacou are nasty. I'd be willing to bet money the most severe wind damage (the one that popped into mind is the image of that concrete building literally leveled right next to ones still standing) was caused by so-called "mini swirls". Ted Fujita studied them in the aftermath of Hurricanes Andrew and Iniki, and the research he put into them is so fascinating. These mini swirls are not true tornadoes, as eyewall mesovortices contribute to their formation but the swirls do not connect with any convective cloud bases. In Hurricane Andrew, he estimated that these swirls lasted no more than a second or two, but possibly had wind gusts up to 200 mph.
Click to expand...
There was quite a lot of vorticity visible from satellite in and around the eyewall as it moved over the island, likely a correct assumption.
 
I wasn’t shocked at all to see the damage, not because I was expecting it, but because how many times I’ve seen it.

Ever since 2015, we basically haven’t had a year without seeing cat4 damage or higher, with the exception of 2023.

Joaquin in the Bahamas, Mathew in Haiti/Dominica, Harvey, Irma and Maria in Texas, the leewards and Florida, Micheal in Florida, Dorian in the Bahamas, Laura, Eta, and Iota, in Louisiana, and Central Americas, Ida in Louisiana, Ian in Florida, and again with Beryl and who knows what’s next this season.

It feels like high end cat4 to cat5 damage is common now in the Atlantic.
 
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top