Houston Metro Severe Weather Threat May 6, 2025.

[AJS]

View attachment 41007
A semi discrete mode with a few discrete cells in TX/LA. The 16z run seems MDT worthy to me.

Got a couple of cells that could go right through my area according to this run..

 

[OH-IOan]

Yea, I'm hoping they go with a MDT, just to be safe. Not going to be a "historic outbreak" of course, but could be a December 28-type situation, where we saw that violent (received an EF3-rating, though) tornado that went south of Port Arthur.

 

[AJS]

Yea, I'm hoping they go with a MDT, just to be safe. Not going to be a "historic outbreak" of course, but could be a December 28-type situation, where we saw that violent (received an EF3-rating, though) tornado that went south of Port Arthur.

Yeah, that HRRR run is a bit concerning though.

 

[Jbop]

Has the SPC ever done an upgrade before the next scheduled update

 

[WhirlingWx]

At 12:14 PM, Milam County Sheriff Office reported a tornado on FM 1600 (reading the warning text of the tornado warned storm)

 

[OH-IOan]

At 12:14 PM, Milam County Sheriff Office reported a tornado on FM 1600 (reading the warning text of the tornado warned storm)

Interesting, you don't see the "SOURCE" column being that specific very often

 

[DanLarsen34]

Has the SPC ever done an upgrade before the next scheduled update

I can't really recall them doing that to increase a risk. They did issue an updated outlook on 4/27/2014, day of the Vilonia EF-4, that downgraded the risk from a High to a moderate across Arkansas about an hour after they issued their evening outlook.

 

[WhirlingWx]

Interesting, you don't see the "SOURCE" column being that specific very often

Whoever reported it had to be very close, I don't know how you'd see anything in that mess of rain.

Still don't see a CC drop but the couplet is there.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WhirlingWx]

I spy crashing outflow from west of Lexington to north of Wimberley. This could undercut storms that try to form out in front of it.

 

[AJS]

Could be a very long day ahead of us.

 

[WhirlingWx]

I spy crashing outflow from west of Lexington to north of Wimberley. This could undercut storms that try to form out in front of it.

Also, in case it's not clear, I'm not calling for an #eventcancel. That outflow is still pretty far from the Houston metro and I wouldn't go as far as saying that Bryan-College Station is out of the woods yet for a tornado threat either.

 

[AJS]

Also, in case it's not clear, I'm not calling for an #eventcancel. That outflow is still pretty far from the Houston metro and I wouldn't go as far as saying that Bryan-College Station is out of the woods yet for a tornado threat either.

Where do you guys think the best chance for discrete activity is?

 

[Ozonelayer]

Where do you guys think the best chance for discrete activity is?

Probably west of the Houston metro. And a very conditional risk in southern Louisiana.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Excuse me?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Where do you guys think the best chance for discrete activity is?

HRRR has a long track supercell a long the Lousianna Mississippi southern border. Not sure if I'm buying but looks to be along the warm front.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also. I really don't like the look of the OWS stuff in Southeast Texas on future radar. That's going to cause some major issues if it verifies, maybe it gets too clutter and the storms choke each other off, atleast I hope. (Low level lapse rates are pretty low currently that maybe a hiccup as well)

 

[Kds86z]

Also. I really don't like the look of the OWS stuff in Southeast Texas on future radar. That's going to cause some major issues if it verifies, maybe it gets too clutter and the storms choke each other off, atleast I hope. (Low level lapse rates are pretty low currently that maybe a hiccup as well)

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Oh well that answers that question @Kds86z

 

[Kds86z]

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