- Thread starter
- #41
AJS
Member
Got a couple of cells that could go right through my area according to this run..
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OH-IOan
Member
Yea, I'm hoping they go with a MDT, just to be safe. Not going to be a "historic outbreak" of course, but could be a December 28-type situation, where we saw that violent (received an EF3-rating, though) tornado that went south of Port Arthur.
- Thread starter
- #43
AJS
Member
Yeah, that HRRR run is a bit concerning though.
WhirlingWx
Member
At 12:14 PM, Milam County Sheriff Office reported a tornado on FM 1600 (reading the warning text of the tornado warned storm)
OH-IOan
Member
Interesting, you don't see the "SOURCE" column being that specific very often
DanLarsen34
Member
I can't really recall them doing that to increase a risk. They did issue an updated outlook on 4/27/2014, day of the Vilonia EF-4, that downgraded the risk from a High to a moderate across Arkansas about an hour after they issued their evening outlook.
WhirlingWx
Member
Whoever reported it had to be very close, I don't know how you'd see anything in that mess of rain.
Still don't see a CC drop but the couplet is there.
Kds86z
Member
WhirlingWx
Member
I spy crashing outflow from west of Lexington to north of Wimberley. This could undercut storms that try to form out in front of it.
- Thread starter
- #51
AJS
Member
Could be a very long day ahead of us.
WhirlingWx
Member
Also, in case it's not clear, I'm not calling for an #eventcancel. That outflow is still pretty far from the Houston metro and I wouldn't go as far as saying that Bryan-College Station is out of the woods yet for a tornado threat either.
- Thread starter
- #53
AJS
Member
Where do you guys think the best chance for discrete activity is?
Ozonelayer
Member
Probably west of the Houston metro. And a very conditional risk in southern Louisiana.
Ozonelayer
Member
HRRR has a long track supercell a long the Lousianna Mississippi southern border. Not sure if I'm buying but looks to be along the warm front.
Also. I really don't like the look of the OWS stuff in Southeast Texas on future radar. That's going to cause some major issues if it verifies, maybe it gets too clutter and the storms choke each other off, atleast I hope. (Low level lapse rates are pretty low currently that maybe a hiccup as well)
Kds86z
Member
Attachments
Oh well that answers that question @Kds86z
