HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ST. MARTIN AND SINT
MAARTEN BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 52.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..195NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane, the first so far into Jose,
found the hurricane was much stronger than previously estimated. A
standard 90 percent reduction of the 146-kt peak flight-level wind
at 700 mb yields an intensity estimate of about 130 kt, which is
the basis for the initial intensity. In the short term, Jose is in a
fairly favorable environment. Although the SHIPS-diagnosed shear is
near 20 kt, the hurricane is small enough that it has thus far
remained sheltered from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Irma to
the west. Internal dynamics will therefore most likely be the
driving factor of Jose's intensity for the next day or so. After
that time, all of the intensity guidance forecasts weakening,
perhaps assuming that eventually the shear will begin to affect the
hurricane. Due to the very high initial intensity of Jose, the
intensity forecast is quite a bit higher than the model consensus,
even after adjusting for the initial intensity. However, the NHC
forecast still follows the model trend of steady weakening beyond 24
The aircraft data also indicated that the center of Jose is a
little farther south than previously estimated. Because of that,
the NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly south and west of
the previous one. Otherwise, there is no significant change to
the track forecast, and Jose is still expected to turn northwest
before reaching the Leeward Islands on Saturday, as the subtropical
ridge begins to retreat eastward. There is fairly good agreement
between the global models for the first 48 h. After that, it is
still unclear if Jose will begin to move east with an approaching
mid-latitude mid-level trough, or if it will remain trapped in
light steering flow. As a course of least regret, my forecast
splits the difference between these scenarios and shows a slow
northeastward motion at day 5.
Not much talk on Jose this week I see, but he's still hanging around and now the models show him becoming a hurricane again (perhaps major hurricane) not too far from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. There's been a big west trend over the last 24-36 hours with his track. Here's an image from the 06z GFS. The 00z had it making landfall on long island
Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 56A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017
...JOSE STILL A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose
was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 69.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4
km/h). Jose is expected to meander off the coast of New England for
the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).