Fall Severe Weather - 2017 (1 Viewer)


MichelleH

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374
Location
Hanceville, AL
Areas affected...Portions of Tennessee and northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517...

Valid 182324Z - 190130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517
continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east within and near Watch 517
this evening, with an attendant threat of a few damaging gusts and
perhaps a tornado. The line should gradually weaken with eastward
extent this evening, such that downstream watch issuance is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A nearly continuous line of thunderstorms is advancing
across Tennessee and northern Alabama early this evening. Over the
last hour, there was a localized uptick in tornado potential
south/east of the Nashville area, with three distinct tornadic
debris signatures in Rutherford, Wilson, and Trousdale counties.
While cells will continue to outpace remaining low-level buoyancy,
impressive low-level shear may still yield a quick tornado across
Middle Tennessee over the next hour.
Otherwise, an isolated damaging
wind threat will likely persist through the 01Z expiration time of
Watch 517.

Farther south, convection has at times consolidated into a few
stronger segments over northern Alabama. Local observations have yet
to indicate severe wind gusts, but considering the strength of
low-level flow and presence of weak mixed-layer CAPE, isolated
damage will remain possible for the next couple hours, before
surface-based buoyancy is shunted farther south.
 

MichelleH

Member
Messages
374
Location
Hanceville, AL
Here in Lawrence county we got hit pretty hard my power is currently out


Sent from my iPhone using TalkWeather

Hope everything is ok. Lauderdale County got hit really hard too. Last I read, most of the county was without power, lots of downed trees and the Advanced Auto Parts in Florence was pretty much destroyed.
 

StormStalker

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Tuscumbia, AL
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Some damage north of Florence in the Petersville area. One auto parts store sustained significant damage and some damage to a field house in Killen at Brooks High School. Lots of trees/powe lines down all over the shoals and of course power outages to go along with that.
 

MichelleH

Member
Messages
374
Location
Hanceville, AL
I've been meaning to post this, and keep forgetting. Back on 11/19, Brian Peters posted this in his blog post from the 33/40 weather blog. I don't know how to read models, so can anybody let us know if this pattern is still showing up? Thanks so much!!

"Looking further into the future, the pattern for voodoo country stays fairly active. The GFS is pumping up a nice ridge over the eastern US around the 29th of November which should spell some really warm temperatures for late November. I dare say we might see values reaching the lower 70s. A short wave in Canada and the Great Lakes will dampen the ridge somewhat around the 2nd of December. But the look of the upper air pattern is rather scary for the 4th of December with a pattern that strongly suggests the potential for a significant round of severe weather. This is voodoo country, so we’re not making a specific forecast right now. I’m just saying that if this pattern verifies, it is definitely suggestive of big round of severe weather. We’ll continue to watch this, but we know this far out in voodoo country, changes will occur and the whole feature may be gone in the next model run."
 

rolltide_130

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Location
Harvest, Alabama
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I've been meaning to post this, and keep forgetting. Back on 11/19, Brian Peters posted this in his blog post from the 33/40 weather blog. I don't know how to read models, so can anybody let us know if this pattern is still showing up? Thanks so much!!

"Looking further into the future, the pattern for voodoo country stays fairly active. The GFS is pumping up a nice ridge over the eastern US around the 29th of November which should spell some really warm temperatures for late November. I dare say we might see values reaching the lower 70s. A short wave in Canada and the Great Lakes will dampen the ridge somewhat around the 2nd of December. But the look of the upper air pattern is rather scary for the 4th of December with a pattern that strongly suggests the potential for a significant round of severe weather. This is voodoo country, so we’re not making a specific forecast right now. I’m just saying that if this pattern verifies, it is definitely suggestive of big round of severe weather. We’ll continue to watch this, but we know this far out in voodoo country, changes will occur and the whole feature may be gone in the next model run."

That's a rather bold claim by him considering how bad models have been.. and this is 300+ hours out... Not really sure what he's getting at here.

Now I'm not saying that we WON'T get any severe weather the month of December, and as the atmosphere continues to respond to the developing Nina the overall pattern could become more conductive for severe, but calling for a significant threat the first week when we're 14 days out is a pretty big stretch..
 

MichelleH

Member
Messages
374
Location
Hanceville, AL
That's a rather bold claim by him considering how bad models have been.. and this is 300+ hours out... Not really sure what he's getting at here.

Now I'm not saying that we WON'T get any severe weather the month of December, and as the atmosphere continues to respond to the developing Nina the overall pattern could become more conductive for severe, but calling for a significant threat the first week when we're 14 days out is a pretty big stretch..
Well, he did clarify that it was in "voodoo land," but a lot of non-weather geeks read this blog....
 

KoD

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I'd put as much faith in the voodoo land GFS as I would a palm reading psychic. After all, severe threats can spontaneously disappear from the models <36hrs out, or the models can be in flawless agreement and all bust spectacularly. No way I'd be concerned with something 300+ hrs out, let alone 120+ hrs out. Being cognizant of the overall pattern is important though, and I think that's really what they're trying to convey on that blog... But they use a few buzz words to keep readers interested.
 

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