Fall Severe Weather - 2017

[gangstonc]

It looks like things are starting to happen with this fall's severe weather season. There is a day 3 outlook from spc. How do you guys think this fall will shape up?

 

[SilentShadow87]

Bit of a late reply but this particular event is shaping up to be a decent squall line with a possibility of a derecho and maybe a few tornadoes. As for the general severe season, it's looking that the locus of severe weather might be pretty far west, probably into the Southern Plains.

 

[akt1985]

What do you all think of the scattered thunderstorm chance this Friday and Saturday for north and central Alabama? Any chance for severe weather? We are about into November.

 

[Kory]

Things look pretty quiet on the severe wx front. Obviously, isolated severe with these weaker systems is possible, but nothing large scale looks to be brewing on the horizon.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Things look pretty quiet on the severe wx front. Obviously, isolated severe with these weaker systems is possible, but nothing large scale looks to be brewing on the horizon.

Are we talking about Alabama in particular here or generally? Sunday's system seems to be shaping up quite nicely.

 

[Kory]

Are we talking about Alabama in particular here or generally? Sunday's system seems to be shaping up quite nicely.

I should've been more specific, but I was generally referring to the Southeast, where most of the members are located. My apologies.

Sunday, indeed, looks good near the Great Lakes...and it appears supercells will be the dominant storm mode.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I should've been more specific, but I was generally referring to the Southeast, where most of the members are located. My apologies.

Sunday, indeed, looks good near the Great Lakes...and it appears supercells will be the dominant storm mode.

Ah okay, and yep, agreed. It's a real shame I'm working Sunday, otherwise I might drive out for a local chase...it's really not that common for my neck of the woods to get supercells at this time of the year.

 

[MichelleH]

The wasps and bumblebees make me kind of interested in today. Only a marginal risk with 2% tornado probs, but might be worth keeping an eye on.

 

[StormStalker]

73/65 here with the sun been in and out all afternoon. Wasn't expecting a severe threat today but we'll see what happens.

 

[MichelleH]

Jason Simpson just mentioned this on Facebook. He said there isn't a very big tornado threat for west AL, but there is a threat.

 

[MichelleH]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1747.html

 

[KoD]

The wasps and bumblebees make me kind of interested in today. Only a marginal risk with 2% tornado probs, but might be worth keeping an eye on.

Idk if that's a euphemism or not, but there was an absurd amount of wasps outside my house today. I thought it was very bizarre.

 

[MichelleH]

Idk if that's a euphemism or not, but there was an absurd amount of wasps outside my house today. I thought it was very bizarre.

Lol! No, not an euphemism! They were literally swarming in our yard and driveway! And I'm terrified of any kind of bees!! I noticed earlier that some storms had started popping up in Mississippi, but now everything has died down. Hmm. I know it's just so "stuffy" and that can't be a good thing for Alabama in November!

 

[Kory]

This Saturday looks to feature some stronger storms with an approaching cold front. One thing working against it is the narrow CAPE corridor that will be relegated to right along the boundary due to poor return flow trajectories. Shear profiles look favorable, so we'll have to keep an eye on things as the SPC has already outlooked regions to the West and North for Day 5.

It is something to keep an eye on though, especially since this appears to be affecting Tuscaloosa right during our last home game.

 

[JayF]

This Saturday looks to feature some stronger storms with an approaching cold front. One thing working against it is the narrow CAPE corridor that will be relegated to right along the boundary due to poor return flow trajectories. Shear profiles look favorable, so we'll have to keep an eye on things as the SPC has already outlooked regions to the West and North for Day 5.

It is something to keep an eye on though, especially since this appears to be affecting Tuscaloosa right during our last home game.

I know I will be keeping an eye on this as we have a soccer tournament this weekend.

 

[Mike S]

This Saturday looks to feature some stronger storms with an approaching cold front. One thing working against it is the narrow CAPE corridor that will be relegated to right along the boundary due to poor return flow trajectories. Shear profiles look favorable, so we'll have to keep an eye on things as the SPC has already outlooked regions to the West and North for Day 5.

It is something to keep an eye on though, especially since this appears to be affecting Tuscaloosa right during our last home game.

Good news is it is still plenty far out for timing to change

 

[SilentShadow87]

Friday may have the geographically largest risk area I've ever seen in a D4-D8 outlook. And on the exact anniversary of the 2013 Midwest outbreak as well. Now granted it's forecast to be a low CAPE/high shear event with strong lower to upper level flow, which would support straight-line winds as the primary risk rather than tornadoes, but still.

 

[KoD]

Friday may have the geographically largest risk area I've ever seen in a D4-D8 outlook. And on the exact anniversary of the 2013 Midwest outbreak as well. Now granted it's forecast to be a low CAPE/high shear event with strong lower to upper level flow, which would support straight-line winds as the primary risk rather than tornadoes, but still.

 

[MichelleH]

Yep, the outlined area went *poof*

 

[Kory]

SPC reasoning...too much inconsistency. To be honest, models' handling of this system has been largely inconsistent. The timing differences alone should've been enough to preclude an outlook, not to mention there is differences on handling the synoptic features between the Euro and GFS.