Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

[A Guy]

Would like @A Guy input on cycloid stuff, very knowledgeable on this topic. I believe cycloid analysis has very legitimate merit fwiw, but only when carried out in a careful manner (and not applied in every circumstance) Can’t go into much details here atm but I might in a later post

EDIT: also, I would absolutely not designate it as pseudoscience, that’s a massive stretch to me.

I don't have any special insights, all I can say is that I read the relevant literature when those that called it pseudoscience usually had not (and even if something is wrong, that doesn't make it 'pseudoscience' specifically). It's based on assumptions that are reasonable, if not strictly correct, and is reliant on geometry that doesn't particularly special (though I couldn't do it myself, but I'm increasingly realising that my school maths education was actually appalling and missed a lot of useful things).

There are some unanswered questions I think are worth considering:

- The method assumes that the marks are produced from a point, but it's not clear to me from simulations that's actually the case. The issue this raises is whether the marks are representative of windspeed at all.
- The method assumes that the marks are regular, i.e. that both the speed relative to, and distance from the centre are steady. Both the fact that real-life marks are often visibly distorted, and tornado simulations show that neither of these assumptions is true (which is what Fujita was trying to get around when he studied the 1965 Greentown tornado). How much does this matter?
- Most analyses I've seen correspond to EF-scale windspeeds. However, the marks are generated at very low levels, so it's not clear how these correspond with standard gust values (i.e. 3 seconds at ten metres or similar). The modelling I've seen on ground marks was on a metre scale, but something on a significantly finer scale would be more informative.

That said I don't think the assumptions and unknowns are tremendously more problematic than some of those behind EF-scale damage analyses.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I'm surprised 2002-2007 hasn't been mentioned very much as an era to reexamine. Definitely one of the peak periods of egregious conservatism, which is important because it created a lot of the justification for eventually rolling out the EF scale.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

This is not going to be a popular take on this forum, but I’ve silently reached the conclusion that Chapman might not be upgradable, at least from a structural damage perspective and considering NWS survey standards. I did a deep dive looking at every angle of the main farmhouse in question. The first thing I noticed was that the portion of the foundation stem wall that got cracked and ripped apart, may have been cracked prior to the tornado and been a pre-existing weak spot. The reason I say this is that the crack happened right where “corner pop” occurs. Corner pop is the cracking of foundation corners caused by expansion of brick veneer caused by temperature changes. The Chapman farmhouse was brick veneer. Also, the foundation had two sections: a larger basement portion and a smaller crawlspace portion with a concrete stemwall (that’s the portion that had its corner buckled). There were two more problems I noticed, the first of which was that none of the sill plates on the main basement portion were removed. Not a single one. While I think factors like “not enough” sill plate removal are dubious amid extreme contextual damage (*cough* Saltical’s analysis of the Wicker Street home *cough*), I do consider ZERO sill plate removal and bolt bending to be a sign of an anchoring problem. It may seem pedantic, but it is a clue that signifies a real problem, specifically that the bolts and plates didn’t do their jobs and didn’t put up much of a fight as the house was removed from the foundation. The smaller crawlspace portion did lose sill plates however, which suggests some kind of inconsistency in the construction between the two foundation sections. In addition, the third problem was that the crawlspace portion was pretty much buried under a layer of debris, which may classify it as a DOD9 rather than a DOD10. If Chapman has a path forward for an upgrade, it will probably rely on the tree, railroad, and farm machinery damage, but I’m not exactly sure what the main basis would be among those three things.

This is why I'm so interested in the methodology they'll be using to reanalyze these tornadoes. If it's a Grazulius style analysis, the house wouldn't need to be the sole deciding factor for a new rating. There's so much more to look at contextually. However, I also don't know what the basis would be for rerating the contextual damage. Major head scratcher. Maybe it's just a case of all the evidence being collectively very supportive of "highly-probable EF5 wind speeds".

Another big question is if the Lyza team's process is going to remain entirely confidential, or will we see several small publications (like Fujita used to publish) related to forensic analysis and the progress of our understanding? If it's the latter we certainly won't run out of things to discuss here.

I really want to see more statistical analysis of lofted objects. Ladue sounded extremely skeptical about vehicles as a violent tornado DI, but I think there's more effective ways to incorporate thrown objects into the EF scale. For example, probability curves based on an objects general volume, mass, and distance traveled. Maybe all three variables could be used in an algorithm that generates a final score. The final score would then determine the rating. Surely, with enough Monte Carlo simulations a methodology could eventually be developed. This might actually be what Connell Miller and team are already working on now that I think of it.

 

[eep]

As far as I know, Belmond was not rated F5 based on cycloid analysis, but a single house that was swept off its basement at the edge of town. You might be confusing it with Charles City. No offense, but you’ve made several claims regarding various DIs from several different historic tornadoes that seem to be a a result of confusion, or at the very least you haven’t elaborated on your claims. For example, you mentioned the Washington, IL EF4 lofting parking stops despite almost the entirety of its path being in residential areas with no parking lots besides an automotive business and an apartment complex. We never got clarification on where the alleged lofting of parking stops occurred despite us asking about it. Not trying to attack you or anything, and you could very well be correct, but making sure you have things straight in your head and being able to back up your claims is really important in this hobby. There was an old user on this forum who had a penchant for mixing up DIs with unrelated tornado events, and it caused big problems. That’s what I am trying to avoid.


This is not going to be a popular take on this forum, but I’ve silently reached the conclusion that Chapman might not be upgradable, at least from a structural damage perspective and considering NWS survey standards. I did a deep dive looking at every angle of the main farmhouse in question. The first thing I noticed was that the portion of the foundation stem wall that got cracked and ripped apart, may have been cracked prior to the tornado and been a pre-existing weak spot. The reason I say this is that the crack happened right where “corner pop” occurs. Corner pop is the cracking of foundation corners caused by expansion of brick veneer caused by temperature changes. The Chapman farmhouse was brick veneer. Also, the foundation had two sections: a larger basement portion and a smaller crawlspace portion with a concrete stemwall (that’s the portion that had its corner buckled). There were two more problems I noticed, the first of which was that none of the sill plates on the main basement portion were removed. Not a single one. While I think factors like “not enough” sill plate removal are dubious amid extreme contextual damage (*cough* Saltical’s analysis of the Wicker Street home *cough*), I do consider ZERO sill plate removal and bolt bending to be a sign of an anchoring problem. It may seem pedantic, but it is a clue that signifies a real problem, specifically that the bolts and plates didn’t do their jobs and didn’t put up much of a fight as the house was removed from the foundation. The smaller crawlspace portion did lose sill plates however, which suggests some kind of inconsistency in the construction between the two foundation sections. In addition, the third problem was that the crawlspace portion was pretty much buried under a layer of debris, which may classify it as a DOD9 rather than a DOD10. If Chapman has a path forward for an upgrade, it will probably rely on the tree, railroad, and farm machinery damage, but I’m not exactly sure what the main basis would be among those three things.

Sorry about the Cycloid upgrade claim, shouldn't have said it not remembering which tornado it was. (maybe Oelwein? Take it with a grain of salt though, if someone else remembers please inform me.)

Also that is kinda why I said Chapman only as a maybe, after a user on here pointed out some of the problems with the first farmhouse combined with Marshall's analysis makes it pretty clear you kinda have to make an Enderlin-esque case for it.

 

[buckeye05]

Sorry about the Cycloid upgrade claim, shouldn't have said it not remembering which tornado it was. (maybe Oelwein? Take it with a grain of salt though, if someone else remembers please inform me.)

Also that is kinda why I said Chapman only as a maybe, after a user on here pointed out some of the problems with the first farmhouse combined with Marshall's analysis makes it pretty clear you kinda have to make an Enderlin-esque case for it.

It’s all good, it’s just important to keep things accurate and verifiable when it comes to these topics. But to clarify, the one you are thinking of is Charles City. Same day as Oelwein.

Also I’m still curious about the Washington 2013 parking stops claim. Is that a real thing? You mentioned it during the Greenfield discussion but haven’t elaborated, and I can’t find anything to verify it.

 

[eep]

It’s all good, it’s just important to keep things accurate and verifiable when it comes to these topics. But to clarify, the one you are thinking of is Charles City. Same day as Oelwein.

Also I’m still curious about the Washington 2013 parking stops claim. Is that a real thing? You mentioned it during the Greenfield discussion but haven’t elaborated, and I can’t find anything to verify it.

I tried searching for it cause I swore someone posting lofted parking stops from Washington on here but I also couldn't find anything. Unfortunately I might lean on it also being a mismatched memory. Apologies.

Note that I recall it being somewhere around here in the SigTor thread but again, I couldn't find anything.

Ended up finding those stormtrack messages, interesting to say the least.
View attachment 18729
View attachment 18730

 

[A Guy]

Sorry about the Cycloid upgrade claim, shouldn't have said it not remembering which tornado it was. (maybe Oelwein? Take it with a grain of salt though, if someone else remembers please inform me.)

You're probably thinking of Charles City:



Which was based off a different - and much more wrong - set of assumptions (assuming the marks are closed ellipses)

 

[buckeye05]

I tried searching for it cause I swore someone posting lofted parking stops from Washington on here but I also couldn't find anything. Unfortunately I might lean on it also being a mismatched memory. Apologies.

Note that I recall it being somewhere around here in the SigTor thread but again, I couldn't find anything.

You know part of the reason I ask is because I do have a vague memory about something like that. It does ring a bell so honestly you could be correct. But obviously we’d need further confirmation to treat it as fact.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I

You know part of the reason I ask is because I do have a vague memory about something like that. It does ring a bell so honestly you could be correct. But obviously we’d need further confirmation to treat it as fact.

l add on here from my time lurking, I do remember someone claiming this in the sigtor thread.

I'll try find this.

 

[jiharris0220]

You know part of the reason I ask is because I do have a vague memory about something like that. It does ring a bell so honestly you could be correct. But obviously we’d need further confirmation to treat it as fact.

Washington absolutely did not come across any parking stops and damaged them, I double checked and skimmed through its damage path in high detail plus looked through ground view Google Maps from back then and no such thing was found or exist.
I think what happened is that this post from @Aaron Rider listing a bunch of tornadoes on which he thinks deserve to be upgraded to EF5 worthy and the Washington IL tornado was on the list (it wasn’t bolded). After the list, he talks about the damage feats of some of them and the fact that the Greenfield parking stop damage feat was noted immediately afterwards, I can see how someone would get confused and accidentally mix up damage feats trying to remember.

Lake Martin EF4 asked me this in the Significant Tornado Thread.



I'm going to limit this somewhat to tornadoes in my lifetime or close to it. I have bolded the tornadoes I feel pretty strongly about and italicized ones about which I have a few comments.

One note: I'm not interested in saying "these were all specifically EF5-warranted tornadoes." They weren't all. What I'm saying is, by the very, very reasonable standards of the Fujita Scale in the late 20th century, these are highest grade tornadoes.

Greenfield, IA - 5/21/2024
Matador, TX - 6/21/2023
Rolling Fork, MS - 3/24/2023
Mayfield-Bremen, KY - 12/10/2021
Monette, AR - 12/10/2021
Bassfield, MS - 4/12/2020
Chapman, KS - 5/25/2016
Holly Springs, MS - 12/23/2015
Cisco, TX - 5/9/2015
Rochelle-Fairdale, IL - 4/9/2015
Alpena, SD - 6/18/2014
Pilger (west), NE - 6/16/2014
Pilger (east), NE - 6/16/2014
Stanton, NE - 6/16/2014
Louisville, MS - 4/28/2014
Vilonia, AR - 4/27/2014
Washington, IL - 11/17/2013
Moore, OK - 5/20/2013
Shawnee, OK - 5/19/2013
Berlin, ND - 7/17/2011
Goldsby, OK - 5/24/2011
Chickasha, OK - 5/24/2011
El Reno-Piedmont, OK - 5/24/2011
Joplin, MO - 5/22/2011
Rainsville, AL - 4/27/2011
Hackleburg-Phil Campbell, AL - 4/27/2011
Tuscaloosa-Birmingham, AL - 4/27/2011
Smithville, MS - 4/27/2011
Philadelphia, MS - 4/27/2011
New Wren, MS - 4/27/2011
Parkersburg, IA - 5/25/2008
Picher, OK - Neosho, MO - 5/10/2008
Elie, Manitoba, CAN - 6/22/2007
Greensburg, KS - 5/4/2007
Westminster, TX - 5/9/2006
Marion, ND - 7/18/2004
Roanoke, IL - 7/13/2004
Harper, KS - 5/12/2004
Van Wert, OH - 11/10/2002
Loyal Valley, TX - 5/11/1999
Bridge Creek, OK - 5/3/1999
Deerfield (Lawrenceburg), TN - 4/16/1998
Martins Mills, TN - 4/16/1998
Birmingham, AL - 4/8/1998
Jarrell, TX - 5/27/1997
Oakfield, WI - 7/18/1996
Kellerville, TX - 6/8/1995
Pampa, TX - 6/8/1995
Chandler, MN - 6/16/1992
Red Rock, OK - 4/26/1991
Winfield, KS - 4/26/1991
Andover, KS - 4/26/1991
Plainfield, IL - 8/28/1990
Stratton, NE - 6/15/1990
Bakersfield Valley, TX - 6/1/1990
Goessel, KS - 3/13/1990
Hesston, KS - 3/13/1990

Greenfield was not necessarily the strongest tornado we've seen recently in terms of damage, but it had enough instances of contextual damage, plus that crazy concrete parking stop damage, to impress me. Rolling Fork is similar.

I agree with posts by buckeye elsewhere suggesting that Matador simply couldn't be rated EF5 in the modern use of the scale. But I also feel very, very strongly that that ain't the tornado's fault that the scale is being used without any reference at all to context.

Mayfield-Bremen is THE perfect tornado for representing all or most of the problems with the current implementation of rating tornadoes. I just think it is crazy to suggest context - including blitheringly obvious context - doesn't matter. Mayfield was NOT an EF5. But it WAS an F5 and it SHOULD have been ... look, you get the point. IF you have a tornado scale with a slot for "highest", Mayfield should be in it.

Monette ... I could be talked one way or the other on this, but as someone just posted elsewhere, the tree damage was incredibly strong. Bassfield's contextual damage was so monstrous that, to me, it's just obvious it was an F5 tornado.

Louisville utterly annihilated a fairly impressive apartment building.

Washington had some debarking, very high end windrowing, etc. Not a high end F5, but probably good enough. Some of it reminds me of Xenia back in the day.

I'll be honest: I don't remember why I had Shawnee 2013 on this list. Anyone who can remind me why is welcome to.

Roanoke and Van Wert are sorta in the same category of "well, they definitely had the LOOK if nothing else." Seriously, if you look at pictures of the damage from both, it just looks .... I hate to be so brief and clcihed, but I'm tired ... it looks nasty. Mud spattered everywhere, trees ravaged, industrial facilities crumpled and destroyed, vehicles rendered into ruined piles of unintelligible metal. By contrast, Bridge Creek does even more than that: Bridge Creek does damage that the eyes can't even comprehend. That's a HIGH END F5. But Roanoke and Van Wert were in that zone where the context just really suggests the highest rating is warranted. In my opinion, anyway.

With Martins Mills, the tornado that preceded the main "Forgotten F5", I have never seen photos, but have read various things suggesting it was extremely violent.

I've never been super familiar with the 1998 Birmingham tornado - I know some have suggested it wasn't an F5 at all.

Recent pictures of Kellerville definitely suggest extraordinary intensity.

I think people forget that corn damage wasn't the only accomplishment of the Plainfield F5.

I have absolutely no clue how Stratton wasn't rated F5.

I unironically believe the following: if you don't think Vilonia was both an F5 and an EF5, then you shouldn't be allowed to discuss tornadoes until you correct your mind.

I may discuss some earlier tornadoes I think were underrated (or even overrated!) but that'll do for now. Although one thing I will say is, I like to think logically about implications: that is, if I rate one tornado this way, shouldn't I rate a very similar tornado the same way? And one example is, Moshannon State Forest 1985. Based on tree damage, kinda hard to rate Bassfield EF5 (or F5), and not Moshannon, eh? Edit: or probably Tionesta for that matter. Well, we all know how crazy 5/31/85 was.

By the way, I have no idea if the Franklin, KS tornado of 2003 was an F5 or not.

I don't pretend to be as educated as some of you, but I do think my list is reasonable. There's a few others I haven't made up my mind about, like Camp Crook or one or both of the Canton, TX tornadoes from 2017.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Washington absolutely did not come across any parking stops and damaged them, I double checked and skimmed through its damage path in high detail plus looked through ground view Google Maps from back then and no such thing was found or exist.
I think what happened is that this post from Aaron listing a bunch of tornadoes on which when he thinks deserve to be upgraded to EF5 worthy and the Washington IL tornado was on the list (it wasn’t bolded). After the list, he talks about the damage feats of some of them and the fact Greenfield parking stop damage feat was noted immediately afterwards, I can see how someone would get confused and accidentally mix up damage feats trying to remember.

Yeah, this probably is the culprit.

 

[eep]

Washington absolutely did not come across any parking stops and damaged them, I double checked and skimmed through its damage path in high detail plus looked through ground view Google Maps from back then and no such thing was found or exist.
I think what happened is that this post from @Aaron Rider listing a bunch of tornadoes on which he thinks deserve to be upgraded to EF5 worthy and the Washington IL tornado was on the list (it wasn’t bolded). After the list, he talks about the damage feats of some of them and the fact Greenfield parking stop damage feat was noted immediately afterwards, I can see how someone would get confused and accidentally mix up damage feats trying to remember.

What's weird is that I recall it being a photo of the hurled stop. Maybe someone mis-IDed Joplin or Greenfield damage and deleted it later? Either way sorry for the accidental misinformation lol.

EDIT: As a last ditch effort, I'll ping @TH2002 and @CheeselandSkies cause I also vaguely remember them in the thread as I recall when it was posted (if it wasn't a false memory). Really doubt I'll get anything though LOL.

 

[TH2002]

What's weird is that I recall it being a photo of the hurled stop. Maybe someone mis-IDed Joplin or Greenfield damage and deleted it later? Either way sorry for the accidental misinformation lol.

EDIT: As a last ditch effort, I'll ping @TH2002 and @CheeselandSkies cause I also vaguely remember them in the thread as I recall when it was posted (if it wasn't a false memory). Really doubt I'll get anything though LOL.

maybe one of these photos will ring a bell?

(These are all from Joplin, which is the only confirmed instance off the top of my head of a tornado actually tossing parking stops a considerable distance, I know Greenfield dislodged some but didn't throw them as far as I know)

Another photo I came across of asphalt scouring in the parking lot of Pizza by Stout:

 

[eep]

maybe one of these photos will ring a bell?

(These are all from Joplin, which is the only confirmed instance off the top of my head of a tornado actually tossing parking stops a considerable distance, I know Greenfield dislodged some but didn't throw them as far as I know)

View attachment 54706
View attachment 54707

Another photo I came across of asphalt scouring in the parking lot of Pizza by Stout:
View attachment 54708

Thought it was caked in mud but I think it might've been the fourth image. Dunno how I would've mixed it up. Joplin was crazy.

 

[TH2002]

Thought it was caked in mud but I think it might've been the fourth image. Dunno how I would've mixed it up. Joplin was crazy.

A few more photos of the parking stops:

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

A few more photos of the parking stops:

Absolute legend.

It's crazy these aren't concrete breakouts and the stops were actually lifted off their anchors. They look like they actually have debris impact marks too. You can potentially see impact marks in the second picture here. Completely different presentation than Greenfield.

Emphasis on the word different. Different doesn't mean "less impressive".

 

[speedbump305]

maybe one of these photos will ring a bell?

(These are all from Joplin, which is the only confirmed instance off the top of my head of a tornado actually tossing parking stops a considerable distance, I know Greenfield dislodged some but didn't throw them as far as I know)

View attachment 54706
View attachment 54707

Another photo I came across of asphalt scouring in the parking lot of Pizza by Stout:
View attachment 54708

It genuinely infuriates me that the EF5 rating for this tornado was disputed.

 

[SouthFLwx]

It genuinely infuriates me that the EF5 rating for this tornado was disputed.

That is what happens when you take only a structural-engineering based approach to surveying tornado damage.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Is Robinson-Sullivan 3/31/23 still considered an egregiously underrated "EF3" or did we retreat on that upon closer analysis? The general consensus seemed to be that the most heavily-damaged residences, containing possible EF4 indicators, were not surveyed as thoroughly as they should have been, if they were surveyed at all.

Would be really interesting to know how that outbreak (along with 12/10-11/21 in particular) would have been rated had it occurred from the 1970s through '90s. Based on the video I've seen, at its peak the Farson/Hedrick/Martinsburg, IA tornado was, if anything, even bigger, meaner-looking, and possibly more intense than its Keota successor that I saw.

Just went back and rewatched some of the videos associated with these tornadoes and I absolutely agree with you. The Hedrick and Keota tornadoes had all the hallmarks, visually, of very high-end, violent tornadoes. Frankly, the videos from those two tornadoes are up there with some of the best tornado footage I’ve ever seen.

Looking back at the damage tracks, we were very fortunate that these two tornadoes occurred where they did because I suspect they were more than capable of producing EF-5 damage at peak intensity. That storm just avoided impacting the sizable city of Ottumwa before producing the first tornado, then Impacted the Iowa City area after the Keota tornado.

 

[slenker]

Is Robinson-Sullivan 3/31/23 still considered an egregiously underrated "EF3" or did we retreat on that upon closer analysis? The general consensus seemed to be that the most heavily-damaged residences, containing possible EF4 indicators, were not surveyed as thoroughly as they should have been, if they were surveyed at all.

Underrated? Sure - I don’t know if it was unfairly underrated or if it was underrated just as a consequence of the scale’s confines, though. The tree damage from Robinson was really impressive. Egregiously underrated? Definitely not.