Grand Poo Bah
Member
I don't really blame Northern Indiana, though. It seems the QRT was mostly responsible for these ratings.
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TH2002
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Late to the party, but figured I’d weigh in on Fairview.
Now i’m pretty cautious about putting weight on vehicle mangling and tossing, because I have seen tornadoes as low as EF2 and even high-end EF1 mangle cars. The difference with Fairview though, is that it goes beyond just standard mangling. What happened to that vehicle falls into (but just barely) a category that I call “vehicle disassembly”, which is when cars are literally ripped apart and significant parts of the vehicle are simply missing. This is one of the things on my personal list of contextual indicators that can clue you in on a high-end violent event. In this case, the entire top half of the car was ripped off, exposing the interior. In terms of vehicle disassembly, Fairview is actually rather low-end compared to instances where cars are completely stripped down to their chassis or literally torn in half. Full-on vehicle disassembly is quite rare and is usually associated with high-end violent events or suspected high-end violent events, and the last time I saw it fully happen “all the way” was near Spiritwood, ND last year. While Fairview was rather marginal in terms of vehicle disassembly, it still is vehicle disassembly, which is a phenomenon that I can’t say I’ve ever really seen in a non-default EF2. So while the disassembly isn’t severe enough to confidently put in violent/high-end violent territory, it’s certainly inconsistent with an EF2 tornado. So to sum it up, I would say meeting in the middle and calling it EF3 would be the right call in a perfect world where vehicle damage is an official damage indicator.
But the problem is, we don’t live in that perfect world, and vehicle damage is not an official indicator yet. The most they could do is run Enderlin type calculations on the vehicle if it was indeed lofted, and at this stage we don’t know the distance the car traveled, the height it reached, or how much it bounced or rolled. The unfortunate reality is that WFOs are not going to just drop everything to start crunching numbers and doing hardcore mathematics every time a car gets thrown. The only practical solution is an official vehicle damage indicator on the scale, which from what I’ve heard may not be a reality until 2030.
Since the tornado did not produce any other damage that was remotely remarkable, and because there currently is no official vehicle DI, the survey team simply had no other choice but to rate it EF2. We can acknowledge that the tornado was obviously stronger than that, but we can’t fault the survey team for playing by the rules and working within the current confines of the EF scale. Anyway that’s my two cents. Rest in peace to the mother and daughter who lost their lives in that car.
Now i’m pretty cautious about putting weight on vehicle mangling and tossing, because I have seen tornadoes as low as EF2 and even high-end EF1 mangle cars. The difference with Fairview though, is that it goes beyond just standard mangling. What happened to that vehicle falls into (but just barely) a category that I call “vehicle disassembly”, which is when cars are literally ripped apart and significant parts of the vehicle are simply missing. This is one of the things on my personal list of contextual indicators that can clue you in on a high-end violent event. In this case, the entire top half of the car was ripped off, exposing the interior. In terms of vehicle disassembly, Fairview is actually rather low-end compared to instances where cars are completely stripped down to their chassis or literally torn in half. Full-on vehicle disassembly is quite rare and is usually associated with high-end violent events or suspected high-end violent events, and the last time I saw it fully happen “all the way” was near Spiritwood, ND last year. While Fairview was rather marginal in terms of vehicle disassembly, it still is vehicle disassembly, which is a phenomenon that I can’t say I’ve ever really seen in a non-default EF2. So while the disassembly isn’t severe enough to confidently put in violent/high-end violent territory, it’s certainly inconsistent with an EF2 tornado. So to sum it up, I would say meeting in the middle and calling it EF3 would be the right call in a perfect world where vehicle damage is an official damage indicator.
But the problem is, we don’t live in that perfect world, and vehicle damage is not an official indicator yet. The most they could do is run Enderlin type calculations on the vehicle if it was indeed lofted, and at this stage we don’t know the distance the car traveled, the height it reached, or how much it bounced or rolled. The unfortunate reality is that WFOs are not going to just drop everything to start crunching numbers and doing hardcore mathematics every time a car gets thrown. The only practical solution is an official vehicle damage indicator on the scale, which from what I’ve heard may not be a reality until 2030.
Since the tornado did not produce any other damage that was remotely remarkable, and because there currently is no official vehicle DI, the survey team simply had no other choice but to rate it EF2. We can acknowledge that the tornado was obviously stronger than that, but we can’t fault the survey team for playing by the rules and working within the current confines of the EF scale. Anyway that’s my two cents. Rest in peace to the mother and daughter who lost their lives in that car.
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tornado examiner
Member
I was nearby the deer park Texas tornado when it happened in 2023. That one Produced some gnarly vehicle damage despite structural damage being relatively minor didn’t it?
Yes, Deer Park is precisely one of the reasons why I no longer consider vehicle mangling to be a reliable EF4+ indicator. The Deer Park tornado was not a violent tornado, and it was only producing EF2 structural damage while it was mangling cars almost beyond recognition.
Another great example actually took place in the Dayton suburb where I grew up; the 2015 Beavercreek, OH EF1 (not to be confused with the nocturnal EF3 wedge that hit Beavercreek in 2019). The 2015 Beavercreek tornado was not a strong tornado, and it wasn’t underrated. The damage it did to buildings was pretty minimal, but it did this to a truck:
I personally walked around and took a look at the structural damage surrounding this truck, and can confirm that none of it was remotely severe. The guy inside was badly hurt but survived.
Anyway, compare that blue truck to the Fairview car. Sure, not nearly as bad, but also not worlds apart either. See why I wouldn’t be comfortable rating Fairview higher than EF3? This is why for me to confidently call vehicle damage “violent” or “high-end”, the vehicle has to be literally ripped apart.
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Kds86z
Member
But Matador for example is…
Oh definitely. Matador was an absolute monster. In fact, I recall at least one missing vehicle was never found, which is a phenomenon you only hear about after a truly high-end violent event. And if you want some examples of genuine vehicle disassembly, look no further. People are acting like the vehicle damage from Fairview was as bad as it gets, and that simply isn’t true. It can get worse…much much worse.
speedbump305
Member
I’d still like NWS Lubbock and Texas Tech to explain how this points to EF3 winds…
Grand Poo Bah
Member
On the Grand Poo Bah scale vehicle disassembly like Matador would be an EF5 indicator. ESPECIALLY if there were multiple and they were near a DOD 10 house, which the missing truck, engine block, and axle in Matador were.
Vehicle Mauling like in Fairview would be EF4, but with a lower bound in the EF3 range, so unique cases like Fairview don't get overrated. I totally agree that the one car by itself isn't enough to warrant EF4, and agree with your EF3 assessment. The only reason I'm so against EF2 is because it's setting a new, very bad precedent.
speedbump305
Member
I need to make an AJS scale not gonna lie.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
My scale would also have upper bounds and lower bounds based on confidence rather than construction quality. One well built slabbed house surrounded by much lower end damage would be rated lower than 10 slabbed moderately built houses. If an entire neighborhood was wiped clean it'd be a "max confidence" DOD 10.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
You can actually see the rust/rot here:
And the joist fire here:
There's way too many issues for me to be comfortable with EF4 for this specific residence.
That wood is in terrible shape. EF4 is out of question for this one.
tornado examiner
Member
Lake village damage either hasn’t been fully surveyed yet.
Or terrible construction once again prevented a violent rating in the Midwest.
Or the track will be split cause the whole path from aroma park and lake village is rated 150mph EF3 for now.
It is of course prelim.
Or terrible construction once again prevented a violent rating in the Midwest.
Or the track will be split cause the whole path from aroma park and lake village is rated 150mph EF3 for now.
It is of course prelim.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
It's got a prelim?
tornado examiner
Member
I certainly hope this is just for the damage in the main part of lake village and doesn’t refer to those two slabbed homes. This thread gonna be absolutely on fire if those slabs were the EF2 damage surveyed.
We’ll wait and see
Ozonelayer
Member
I hope, for the sake of this thread, that it wasnt those homes that were rated EF-2. It says preliminarily so I'm thinking they either are still evaluating them or havent rated them at all yet.
iujkiaweatherman
Member
Image of the supercell that produced the Oakfield, Wisconsin F5 tornado. What do we think it'd be rated today? At least 155, with the Friday Canning Company, with the EXB MBS DI, DoD 8. It's F5 home was also pretty well-built, I think at least. From what I could make out, anchor bolts were present and bent. According to an NWS report, rebar supports being bent at a 60-90 degree angle. I could send a photo, if anyone would like
Grand Poo Bah
Member
I think whoever is running that Twitter account just mispoke. No way they rated Lake View Prelim EF2. I'll wait for an official announcement before getting too tilted.
Kds86z
Member
Oh nice pic @iujkiaweatherman and not sure tbh. Anyone of the experts know on this one? @buckeye05 @TH2002