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Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

SilentShadow87 said:
Well, here it is. I'm planning on making a series of posts explaining the tornadoes that I would have rated differently, but this is my first draft of my list of violent tornadoes during the EF5 drought, between May 21, 2013 and June 20, 2025 (and I also found a lot of EF2s which I think should have been rated EF3). I'm open to feedback, and in fact I'd really like to hear people's opinions on the tornadoes that I'm still undecided on in particular, but feedback on any of them would be much appreciated. Obviously subject to change.

Italicized = I'm still undecided on what rating I would give the tornado.
Asterisk = I consider it to be a very marginal/low-end violent tornado.

List:

El Reno, Oklahoma - May 31, 2013 (EF4)
Belmond, Iowa - June 12, 2013 (EF4)*
Wayne, Nebraska - October 4, 2013 (EF4)
Pierson, Iowa - October 4, 2013 (EF4)*
Washington, Illinois - November 17, 2013 (EF4)
New Minden, Illinois - November 17, 2013 (EF4)

Vilonia, Arkansas - April 27, 2014 (EF5)
Tupelo, Mississippi - April 28, 2014 (EF4)
Louisville, Mississippi - April 28, 2014 (EF4)
Stanton, Nebraska - June 16, 2014 (EF5)
Pilger, Nebraska - June 16, 2014 (EF4)
E Pilger, Nebraska - June 16, 2014 (EF4)
Wakefield, Nebraska - June 16, 2014 (EF4)
Coleridge, Nebraska - June 17, 2014 (EF4)
Alpena, South Dakota - June 18, 2014 (EF4)
Columbia, Mississippi - December 23, 2014 (EF4)

Rochelle, Illinois - April 9, 2015 (EF5)
Cisco, Texas - May 9, 2015 (EF4)
Coal City, Illinois - June 22, 2015 (EF3 or EF4)
Clarksdale, Mississippi - December 23, 2015 (EF4)
Holly Springs, Mississippi - December 23, 2015 (EF4 or EF5)
Rowlett, Texas - December 26, 2015 (EF4)

Katie, Oklahoma - May 9, 2016 (EF4)
Sulphur, Oklahoma - May 9, 2016 (EF3 or EF4) (Possible EF4 based on vehicle damage.)
Connerville, Oklahoma - May 9, 2016 (EF3 or EF4) (Same as Sulphur.)
Chapman, Kansas - May 25, 2016 (EF5)

Perryville, Missouri - February 28, 2017 (EF4)
W Canton, Texas - April 29, 2017 (EF4)
E Canton, Texas - April 29, 2017 (EF4)
Great Bend, Kansas - May 16, 2017 (EF4)*

Laramie, Wyoming - June 6, 2018 (EF4) (Based on ground scouring.)
Camp Crook, South Dakota - June 28, 2018 (EF5)
Douglas, Wyoming - July 28, 2018 (EF4 or EF5)
Alonsa, Manitoba - August 3, 2018 (EF4)

Beauregard, Alabama - March 3, 2019 (EF4)
Greenwood Springs, Mississippi - April 13, 2019 (EF4)
Laverne, Oklahoma - May 23, 2019 (EF4)
Dayton, Ohio - May 27, 2019 (EF4)*
Linwood, Kansas - May 28, 2019 (EF4)

Mount Juliet, Tennessee - March 3, 2020 (EF4) (Mostly based on damage to elementary schools in Mount Juliet. Couldn't find explanation for why official NWS rating was lower bound.)
Cookeville, Tennessee - March 3, 2020 (EF4)
Sartinville, Mississippi - April 12, 2020 (EF4)
Bassfield, Mississippi - April 12, 2020 (EF4 or EF5)
Nixville, South Carolina - April 13, 2020 (EF4)
Hurricane Creek, Mississippi - April 19, 2020 (EF4)
Dalton, Minnesota - July 8, 2020 (EF4)

Boscobel, Wisconsin - August 7, 2021 (EF4)
Monette, Arkansas - December 10, 2021 (EF4)
Mayfield, Kentucky - December 10, 2021 (EF5)
Dresden, Tennessee - December 10, 2021 (EF3 or EF4)
Bowling Green, Kentucky - December 10, 2021 (EF4)
Saloma, Kentucky - December 11, 2021 (EF4)

Winterset, Iowa - March 5, 2022 (EF4)
Black Creek, Georgia - April 5, 2022 (EF4) (Borderline EF5, but the contextual concerns are valid imho.)
Ulmer, Georgia - April 5, 2022 (EF4)
Andover, Kansas - April 29, 2022 (EF4)*
Caviness, Texas - November 4, 2022 (EF4)* (I frankly think the EF4 rating is a bit questionable, but if it had been rated EF3 I'd probably be arguing for an EF4 rating.
VERY borderline.)
Clarksville, Texas - November 4, 2022 (EF4)

Rolling Fork, Mississippi - March 24, 2023 (EF5)
Keota, Iowa - March 31, 2023 (EF4)
Robinson, Illinois - March 31, 2023 (EF4)
Covington, Tennessee - March 31, 2023 (EF3 or EF4)
Bethel Springs, Tennessee - March 31, 2023 (EF3 or EF4)
Matador, Texas - June 21, 2023 (EF5)
Didsbury, Alberta - July 1, 2023 (EF4)

Elkhorn, Nebraska - April 26, 2024 (EF4)
Marietta, Oklahoma - April 27, 2024 (EF4)* (Same as Caviness.)
Hawkley, Texas - May 2, 2024 (EF4)*
Barnsdall, Oklahoma - May 6, 2024 (EF4)
Greenfield, Iowa - May 21, 2024 (EF4)
Charleston, Kentucky - May 26, 2024 (EF3 or EF4)
Whitman, Nebraska - June 25, 2024 (EF3 or EF4)

Bakersfield, Missouri - March 14, 2025 (EF4)
Fremont, Missouri - March 14, 2025 (EF3 or EF4)
Larkin, Arkansas - March 14, 2025 (EF4)
Diaz, Arkansas - March 14, 2025 (EF4)
Tylertown, Mississippi - March 15, 2025 (EF4)
Lake City, Arkansas - April 2, 2025 (EF4)
Marion, Illinois - May 16, 2025 (EF4)*
London, Kentucky - May 16, 2025 (EF4 or EF5) (House damage is low-mid EF4. Extreme tree and vehicle damage seem close to EF5 level).
Grinnell, Kansas - May 18, 2025 (EF4)
Preston, Kansas - May 18, 2025 (EF4)
Enderlin, North Dakota - June 20, 2025 (EF5)
Gary, South Dakota - June 28, 2025 (EF4)

Edit: forgot Lake City.
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RE: Holly Springs

Holly Springs-Ashland, MS EF4 Tornado – December 23, 2015 – Tornado Talk

www.tornadotalk.com www.tornadotalk.com
 
re: Louisville.

Regardless of the construction of the Eiland Plaza apartments, there was at least one anchor bolted slab home that was swept away (Felisha Mitchell's residence).

Still, I would infer that based on available evidence, the apartment buildings were well constructed. Here's why:
1. Sill plating was present, at the very least.
2. If they were poorly constructed I presume we would have seen "slider" type failures of the buildings, but that didn't happen as far as I know.

I would come to a very similar conclusion about Worcester 1953. The homes destroyed there were of recent post-WW2 construction, which were often anchor bolted as seen in Ruskin Heights. Also, subfloors in Worcester either remained in place or were 100% ripped away, with few to no cases of subfloors being knocked off foundations intact.
 
TH2002 said:
I would come to a very similar conclusion about Worcester 1953. The homes destroyed there were of recent post-WW2 construction, which were often anchor bolted as seen in Ruskin Heights. Also, subfloors in Worcester either remained in place or were 100% ripped away, with few to no cases of subfloors being knocked off foundations intact.
Click to expand...
If the Worcester reanalysis were held now instead of in 2005 it likely would've gotten an upgrade for these reasons. As it happened (as I've stated before) it got reanalyzed during the height of La Plata Syndrome and appears to have retroactively become its first victim (chronologically).
 
TH2002 said:
re: Louisville.

Regardless of the construction of the Eiland Plaza apartments, there was at least one anchor bolted slab home that was swept away (Felisha Mitchell's residence).

Still, I would infer that based on available evidence, the apartment buildings were well constructed. Here's why:
1. Sill plating was present, at the very least.
2. If they were poorly constructed I presume we would have seen "slider" type failures of the buildings, but that didn't happen as far as I know.

I would come to a very similar conclusion about Worcester 1953. The homes destroyed there were of recent post-WW2 construction, which were often anchor bolted as seen in Ruskin Heights. Also, subfloors in Worcester either remained in place or were 100% ripped away, with few to no cases of subfloors being knocked off foundations intact.
Click to expand...
With reference to Felisha Mitchell's home.

1762701395591.png

The root-balling of trees is very apparent. I do think the Louisville tornado is perhaps one of the most 'underrated' violent tornadoes in terms of general awareness in the community (this forum seems well informed). The tree damage was nothing short of extreme in the forest SW of town (Bassfield level). General damage had that 'swept clean, rowed, granulated, scoured' look that's pretty hard to get at all lower than EF5. There were probably back to back EF5 tornadoes on the 27th/28th.
 
@SilentShadow87 Interesting list. It seems pretty complete but it's missing the March 25 outbreak in 2021. I assume you would downgrade Newman to EF3? I strongly suspect the Greensboro-Centreville, AL tornado with its 80-mile path was violent at some point, but as far as I've seen there's no clear-cut damage to upgrade it on. Maybe it could be revisited with the increased use/understanding of contextual clues, tree and vehicle damage.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
@SilentShadow87 Interesting list. It seems pretty complete but it's missing the March 25 outbreak in 2021. I assume you would downgrade Newman to EF3? I strongly suspect the Greensboro-Centreville, AL tornado with its 80-mile path was violent at some point, but as far as I've seen there's no clear-cut damage to upgrade it on. Maybe it could be revisited with the increased use/understanding of contextual clues, tree and vehicle damage.
Click to expand...
You're right. Newnan in my mind should have been rated 160 mph EF3 and a few others like Caviness and Marietta were very marginal EF4s. I haven't seen any photos of obvious EF4 damage from Greensboro-Centreville, but I'll take another look at the contextuals.
 
buckeye05 said:
I wish there was solid, verifiable construction information on the Eiland Plaza Apartments. I have never, before or since, seen a tornado fully slab a multi-story brick veneer apartment building like that. The official 185 MPH EF4 rating makes me infer that there was something seriously wrong, like the building was only attached to its foundation via carpentry nails or something (this can happen, as we saw at Chastain Manor in Tuscaloosa). However on the other hand, that’s an assumption, and if there was any degree of reasonable anchoring via bolts, there’d be no way to defend the EF4 rating.

When it comes to unanswered questions about instances of tornado damage, details regarding the construction quality at Eiland Plaza is near the top of the list for me. I’ve been wanting a definitive answer for a very long time.
Click to expand...
TH2002 said:
re: Louisville.

Regardless of the construction of the Eiland Plaza apartments, there was at least one anchor bolted slab home that was swept away (Felisha Mitchell's residence).

Still, I would infer that based on available evidence, the apartment buildings were well constructed. Here's why:
1. Sill plating was present, at the very least.
2. If they were poorly constructed I presume we would have seen "slider" type failures of the buildings, but that didn't happen as far as I know.

I would come to a very similar conclusion about Worcester 1953. The homes destroyed there were of recent post-WW2 construction, which were often anchor bolted as seen in Ruskin Heights. Also, subfloors in Worcester either remained in place or were 100% ripped away, with few to no cases of subfloors being knocked off foundations intact.
Click to expand...
Interesting. I was under the impression that the buildings at Eiland Plaza weren't well-built, but with this in mind I might have to go back and change my rating.

Holly Springs and Bassfield are both close to what I personally think of as the EF4/EF5 threshold. In my opinion it comes down to the contextuals for both of them. The debris embedding and some of the tree damage in Bassfield does have me leaning towards an EF5 rating.
 
SilentShadow87 said:
Interesting. I was under the impression that the buildings at Eiland Plaza weren't well-built, but with this in mind I might have to go back and change my rating.

Holly Springs and Bassfield are both close to what I personally think of as the EF4/EF5 threshold. In my opinion it comes down to the contextuals for both of them. The debris embedding and some of the tree damage in Bassfield does have me leaning towards an EF5 rating.
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Bassfield produced arguably some of the most extreme debarking you’ll ever see from a tornado. Along that stretch of it’s path, I have absolutely no doubt it was well into the EF5 range.
 




Lol you have got to be kidding me.

Here's the solution for all of this: correctly rate the tornadoes post-2013 that were biased low.
 
andyhb said:




Lol you have got to be kidding me.

Here's the solution for all of this: correctly rate the tornadoes post-2013 that were biased low.
Click to expand...

I believe him, honestly. This is specifically for the non-tossed grain cars, and not the 266 mph tossed one.
 
Actually found it below. Kind of a good reminder to always double, triple, and quadruple check whatever take you’re about to put out or you risk making an @ss of yourself lol

Something we’ve all done I’m sure. Hand up, I know I have.
1762986752990.png
 
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Ethan is clearly a smart dude, and has been ahead of the curve when it comes to using mathematics to prove tornado intensity, but this is a new approach that is just now being put into practice, and mistakes are going to be made as this methodology is honed in.
 
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Not really tornadoes, but I want to list my analysis of every C5 hurricane in the Atlantic (in my eyes). This gonna be long, and also WIP for a while:

1979
- David (150kt/918mb)

1980
- Allen (165kt/899mb)

1985
-  NEW! Gloria (140kt/919mb)

1988
- Gilbert (170kt/879-885mb)
- NEW! Helene (140kt/
- NEW! Joan (140kt/

1989
- Hugo (150kt/918mb)

1992
- Andrew (155kt/922mb)

1995
- NEW! Opal (140kt/916mb)

1996
- NEW! Edouard (145kt/

1998
- Mitch

1999
- NEW! Floyd
- NEW! Lenny (140kt

2003
- Isabel (160kt/

2004
- Ivan

2005
- Emily (140kt/929mb)
- Katrina (155kt/902mb)
- Rita (155kt/895mb)
- Wilma (170kt/878mb - second strongest in ATL behind Labor Day 1935 and third strongest in hemisphere)

2007
- Dean
- Felix

2008
- NEW! Gustav

2010
- NEW! Igor

2015
- NEW! Joaquin

2017
- Irma (160kt/
- NEW! Jose
- Maria

2018
- Michael

2019
- Dorian

2020
- NEW! Eta (140kt/915mb)
- NEW! Iota (140kt/917mb)

2021
- NEW! Sam

2022
- Ian

2023
- Lee

2024
- Beryl
- NEW! Kirk
- Milton

2025
- Erin
- Humberto
- Melissa (165kt/889mb)

Honorable mentions that I'm still kinda iffy on:
- Diana 1984
- Luis 1995
- Lorenzo 2019
 
And, the Lowest of the Low, the TCs that peaked below 880 mb in my analysis. Some estimates may be somewhat arbitrary and are subject to change, list still WIP:

Labor Day 1935 (175kt/875mb - supported by 880mb barometer reading outside of the eye that was the lowest it could register, that barometer reading isn't proven but I haven't seen anything to disprove it either)
Irma 1971 (???kt/870mb - determined by 1900hurricane reanalysis, though he did state it as a possibility and not his final estimate so it may be slightly higher)
Nora 1973 (185kt/873mb - could be lower)
June 1975 (???kt/873mb - could be lower)
Rita 1978 (185kt/878mb - potentially reached 185kt twice!)
Tip 1979 (175kt/868mb)
Forrest 1983 (???kt/876mb)
Vanessa 1984 (???kt/879mb - could be lower)
Mike 1990 (185kt/871mb - uncannily similar to Patricia in many aspects)
Gay 1992 (???kt/872mb)
Angela 1995 (???kt/879mb)
Zeb 1998 (???kt/878mb)
Dianmu 2004 (???kt/878mb - could be lower)
Olaf 2005 (180kt/868mb - supported by Schloemer Equation putting out 872mb during/after EWRC)
Wilma 2005 (170kt/878mb)
Monica 2006 (175kt/879mb)
Haiyan 2013 (185kt/878mb)
Nuri 2014 (180kt/875mb - again, uncannily similar to Patricia in many aspects)
Patricia 2015 (185kt/868mb)
Meranti 2016 (175kt/875mb - supported by Itbayat pressure reading of 878mb after EWRC)
Hagibis 2019 (175kt/877mb - as determined by a fairly detailed reanalysis by 1900hurricane)
Gaemi 2024 (145kt/875mb - supported by radar estimates, the W/P relationship on this one appears to have been absolutely fucked)
 
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