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Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

Sawmaster said:
If you seek to justify your opinion, you'll find plenty of things which do just that. Seek the truth instead, whatever it is. not trying to justify it because it needs no justification and the deeper you look the more apparent it will become.
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Just to clarify, that's aimed at the surveyors who are screwing it up, correct?
 
Tomcats Forever! said:
Just to clarify, that's aimed at the surveyors who are screwing it up, correct?
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Some of them yes. The ones who would pass 24" spacing of anchor bolts but fail if one was 25" just because the book says so. Or who give a low rating because a tree survived 100 yards away even though several were lost slightly closer. And their "so called superiors" who refuse to look into this or take steps to rectify it.

To get the truth takes common sense which is clearly lacking in far too many people in the world today.
 
buckeye05 said:
I know a lot of us are sick of minor construction flaws being used to downgrade tornadoes far below their actual intensity, but I found a great example of why construction quality is often more important than the degree of destruction. So check out this building. Retail store, totally destroyed, and essentially flattened to the ground. What kind of damage would you guess this is? High-end EF2? Maybe EF3?
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The answer is neither, and this building wasn't even hit by a tornado. In fact, it wasn't even hit by straight-line winds or a thunderstorm at all. This damage occurred from a dust devil on a sunny day with blue skies, which likely contained EF1 to marginal EF2 winds. This small retail building would be classified as DOD 8, which has a starting lower-bound wind speed of 167 MPH, or low-end EF4. While tornado damage surveyors tend to overdo it, this is a perfect example of how damage that may look impressive, actually isn't sometimes.
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Sorry for digging this up, but this building was not collapsed by a dust devil - it was caused by a 70-100mph katabatic wind event. Such events are straight line winds that are not associated with thunderstorms, but are common in the western states (where I live, the winds are known as the Santa Ana winds, for example).



 
Noting #11 can reach 215 and is average of 180. There's certainly more than a few older surveys which clearly should have gotten a higher rating based on this.
 
I know this has been dead for a while, and I haven't posted on here in a really long time. But this was my contribution to the EF4 V EF5 debate that has gotten louder and louder in recent years. Here's a 25-tweet thread explaining potential issues that I have found or have been told, as well as a re-analysis of past tornadoes except for Joplin. Then ending thoughts.
 


I know its well known at this point, but I think Vilonia really drives home the "No EF5 would be safe today" point of view. Had Vilonia been given an EF5 rating back in 2014, I'm sure nowadays many would be saying things along the lines of how it would still be given an EF5 rating today, the same way tornadoes such as Smithville or Moore are viewed. But clearly that did not happen, and hindsight is 20/20.

Vilonia is textbook EF5 damage, and even rivals some of what we consider our 'higher end' EF/F5s. Contextual damage was nothing short of extreme, too. Hope the town is doing better today, they were already unlucky enough to have been hit by the tornado in 2011 too.
 
UK_EF4 said:


I know its well known at this point, but I think Vilonia really drives home the "No EF5 would be safe today" point of view. Had Vilonia been given an EF5 rating back in 2014, I'm sure nowadays many would be saying things along the lines of how it would still be given an EF5 rating today, the same way tornadoes such as Smithville or Moore are viewed. But clearly that did not happen, and hindsight is 20/20.

Vilonia is textbook EF5 damage, and even rivals some of what we consider our 'higher end' EF/F5s. Contextual damage was nothing short of extreme, too. Hope the town is doing better today, they were already unlucky enough to have been hit by the tornado in 2011 too.
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I think it's almost universally agreed that Vilonia '14 set a terrible precedent for (mis)application of the EF-scale that continues to this day.
 
UK_EF4 said:


I know its well known at this point, but I think Vilonia really drives home the "No EF5 would be safe today" point of view. Had Vilonia been given an EF5 rating back in 2014, I'm sure nowadays many would be saying things along the lines of how it would still be given an EF5 rating today, the same way tornadoes such as Smithville or Moore are viewed. But clearly that did not happen, and hindsight is 20/20.

Vilonia is textbook EF5 damage, and even rivals some of what we consider our 'higher end' EF/F5s. Contextual damage was nothing short of extreme, too. Hope the town is doing better today, they were already unlucky enough to have been hit by the tornado in 2011 too.
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Completely inexcusable work by the NWS in Little Rock. I have legitimately not seen a tornado been more robbed of its rating than the Vilonia tornado. Those damage pictures are literally as extreme as tornado damage gets and is undoubtedly well into the EF5 category.
 
In my opinion ( and in no particular order ) these are what I could consider the most egregiously underrated tornadoes to be.

1: Vilonia
2: Chickasha/Blanchard
3: Goldsby/Washington
4: Chapman KS
5: Rochelle Illinois ( This tornado gets overlooked in my opinion )
6: New Wren
These 6 tornadoes in my opinion should have been rated EF5.

These are the tornadoes that I definitely consider to have reached EF5 intensity, but couldn’t due to construction quality/ other factors.

1: Mayfield-Bremen
2: Bassfield MS
3. Tuscaloosa AL
4: Washington Illinois
5: Rolling Fork MS
6: Greenfield IA
 
IMG_6037.jpegIMG_6044.jpegIMG_6039.jpegIMG_6038.jpegIMG_6040.jpegIMG_6030.jpegIMG_6036.jpegIMG_6035.jpeg
Moving these pics to this thread to discuss. This might be a controversial opinion, but I truly believe if there was an exceptionally well built home in Rolling Fork that was swept completely away, I have absolutely no doubt JAN would have rated it EF5. Honestly, as much as people might not believe it, this actually imo was the closest tornado to ending the EF5 drought. Not just because of how intense the damage was, but due to how detail oriented, thought out, and executed JAN’s survey was. It was a fantastic survey and I applaud them for giving this monster the rating it deserved.
 
AJS said:
View attachment 33312View attachment 33313View attachment 33314View attachment 33315View attachment 33316View attachment 33317View attachment 33318View attachment 33319
Moving these pics to this thread to discuss. This might be a controversial opinion, but I truly believe if there was an exceptionally well built home in Rolling Fork that was swept completely away, I have absolutely no doubt JAN would have rated it EF5. Honestly, as much as people might not believe it, this actually imo was the closest tornado to ending the EF5 drought. Not just because of how intense the damage was, but due to how detail oriented, thought out, and executed JAN’s survey was. It was a fantastic survey and I applaud them for giving this monster the rating it deserved.
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Btw, I do not count Vilonia as an EF4. Until the day that I die, I will forever list that tornado as an EF5 and that’s how it will be remembered in my heart.
 
AJS said:
In my opinion ( and in no particular order ) these are what I could consider the most egregiously underrated tornadoes to be.

1: Vilonia
2: Chickasha/Blanchard
3: Goldsby/Washington
4: Chapman KS
5: Rochelle Illinois ( This tornado gets overlooked in my opinion )
6: New Wren
These 6 tornadoes in my opinion should have been rated EF5.

These are the tornadoes that I definitely consider to have reached EF5 intensity, but couldn’t due to construction quality/ other factors.

1: Mayfield-Bremen
2: Bassfield MS
3. Tuscaloosa AL
4: Washington Illinois
5: Rolling Fork MS
6: Greenfield IA
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My list of what should of been rated EF5 with the likely wind speed that NWS should of used for damage

for should of been rated F5/EF5 (all 1999-2013 official EF5/F5 except for one would go along with this group)
  1. Marion County - Barnes F4+ July 2004 - 210-213 MPH
  2. Chifeng WTS EF4 August 2017 - 205-207 MPH
  3. Mayfield - Bremen EF4+ Dec 2021 - 204-205 MPH
  4. Chickasha - Blanchard - Newcastle EF4+ May 2011- 204-205 MPH
  5. Vilonia - Mayflower EF4+ April 2014 - 204-205 MPH
  6. Rochelle EF4+ April 2015 - 204-205 MPH
  7. Flat Rock EF4+ April 2011 - 204-205 MPH
  8. Ringgold EF4+ April 2011- 204-205 MPH
  9. Wren EF3+ April 2011 - 204-205 MPH
for borderline but more on the EF5 side (should all be rated EF4-EF5) (Parkersburg - New Hartford EF5 May 2008 would be in this group at 200-201 MPH)
  1. Goldsby - Dibble EF4+ May 2011 200 - 202 MPH
  2. Hopewell - Macksville EF3+ May 2007 - 200-202 MPH (at least upgrade to EF4)
  3. Manchester F4 June 2003 - 200-202 MPH
  4. Lincoln County- Franklin County- Coffee County F4+ April 1974 - 200-202 MPH
for borderline but more on the EF4 side (all are 200 MPH)
  1. Tuscaloosa EF4+ April 2011
  2. Bridgeport EF4 April 2011
  3. Bassfield - Collins - Soso EF4 April 2020

for contextual EF5 damage
  1. Bakersfield Valley F4 June 1990 - 198-200 MPH
  2. Cordova EF4 April 2011 - 195-197 MPH
  3. Picher EF4 May 2008 - 200 MPH
  4. Holly Springs-Ashland EF4 Dec 2015 - 194-195 MPH
  5. Chapman EF4+ May 2016 - 200 MPH (almost for borderline)
  6. Harper F4+ May 2004 - 200 MPH (almost for borderline)
  7. Barnesville EF3+ April 2011 - 200 MPH (almost for borderline and at least upgrade to EF4)
  8. Loyal Valley F4+ May 1999 - 195-197 MPH
  9. Franklin - Girard F4+ May 2003 - 195-197 MPH
  10. Kellerville F4+ June 1995 - 165-166 MPH
  11. Henryville EF4+ March 2012 - 200 MPH (almost for borderline)

others to note that should be likely put on these groups
  1. Cisco EF3 May 2015 - 170-171 MPH (at least upgrade to EF4)
  2. Columbus F2 June 1998 - 145-150 MPH? (however base on info that cant be 100% confirmed it is likely needed a 195-197 MPH) (at least upgrade to EF3-EF4)
  3. Greensfield EF4+ May 2024 - 195-197 MPH
  4. Louisville EF4 April 2014 - 200 MPH
  5. Westminster F3 May 2006 195-197 MPH (at least upgrade to EF4)
  6. Washington–Long Point EF4 Nov 2013 - 195-197 MPH
  7. Metador EF3+ June 2023 - 174-175 MPH (at least upgrade to EF4)
here is each years number amount of F5/EF5 to show the EF5 drought is quite artificial
1998 and Before: pretty much i would say 1998 is the last year that a F5 should be downgraded
1999:1-2
2000-2002:0
2003:0-2
2004:1-2
2005:0
2006:0-1
2007:2-3
2008:1-2
2009-2010:0
2011:10-15
2012:0-1
2013:1-2
2014:1-2
2015:1-3
2016:0-1
2017:1
2018-2019:0
2020:0-1
2021:1
2022:0
2023:0-1
2024:0-1

longest drought since 1999 would be 2000-2003 or 2022-2024 as both 2004 and 2021 had one clear F5/EF5

with 2011 having a crazy 10-15 EF5 likely happening here are the days for 2011
April 27:7-11
May 22:1
May 24:2-3

Interestingly i notice 1974 SO likely only have 2-4 Tornadoes that would be rated EF5 today
pretty much the 2 Super outbreak should swap the EF5/F5 amount
 
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