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Severe WX December 31, 2021 - January 1, 2022 Severe Threat

This little cell North of the Jackson Radar just topped 29kft on the last scan looking at echoe tops, but was back down after I posted.
 

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Latest (and still-incomplete) run of the HRRR shows UH streaks across NW AL from cells that develop in central MS.
1641061134250.png
 
Austin Dawg said:
If you look from KGWX you can see them starting to spin
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Wondering if SPC may shift and increase the threat given the discrete development we're seeing. Also curious how much of the cap is in place atm and how much it will limit these storms.
 
TOR in TN.

 
Clancy said:
Wondering if SPC may shift and increase the threat given the discrete development we're seeing. Also curious how much of the cap is in place atm and how much it will limit these storms.
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Could there be too many of them to the point where they start zapping energy from each other so they don't mature into a major super cell?
 
The cell heading into the far NW portion of Franklin Co., AL is hooking a bit.
1641061914790.png
 
Austin Dawg said:
Could there be too many of them to the point where they start zapping energy from each other so they don't mature into a major super cell?
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I'd imagine that could be a potential issue.
 
andyhb said:
They really need to extend that ENH risk further south, thermos are ahead of schedule in most cases and we're seeing secondary surface low development in Arkansas and the Arklatex, which is going to augment already strong wind fields. This could be a serious event about to unfold given the amount of pre-frontal confluence bands over LA/MS right now.
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From what I heard on ABC 33/40 warm air aloft appears to be hampering/lessening severe weather threat today. I guess this could change though.
 
Fresh MD says Tornado Watch likely for N AL, TN into KY.



SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUST AND TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 3. THIS THREAT
WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM INTO MORE OF CENTRAL KY, MIDDLE TN, AND
NORTHERN AL, WHERE A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF LEX SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF BWG,
CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN TN TO ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MEM. NUMEROUS SHALLOW BUT STRONG/ORGANIZED CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LIGHTNING HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE FREQUENT OVER THE LAST HOUR. GENERAL TREND WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LINE IS FOR AN INITIALLY
CELL-IN-LINE STRUCTURE WITH A STRONG, MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFT. THIS
MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE THEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY TRENDS TOWARDS
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD. AS SUCH, A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD FOR TORNADOGENESIS
EXISTS BEFORE THE STORMS THEN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. INITIAL, MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO OCCURRED
SPORADICALLY AHEAD OF THE LINE, WITH A LONGER DURATION OF MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE CONTRIBUTING TO A SLIGHTLY GREATER TORNADO RISK.
THESE STORMS ALSO TREND TOWARDS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE OUTFLOW
OVERTAKES THEM.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE OUTFLOW PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD.
CURRENT MOTION PLACES THE OUTFLOW NEAR THE EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 3
BY 1930Z-2000Z. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A BIT MORE VEERED DOWNSTREAM,
BUT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG. AS SUCH, SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE AND A
DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
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