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Severe WX December 29 & 30, 2021 Severe Threat

Austin Dawg

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The warning was issued by JAN. The polygon is shaped so weird because north of it is MEG's area of repressibility.
Can anybody tell me why the line of storms west of Columbus looks so different on the Columbus radar than it does on the Jackson in Memphis radars?
 
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Southwestern cell just popped a meso marker on GR Level 3, but as far as I can tell the warning only refers to the lead one. Both are within a larger severe thunderstorm warning polygon.
 
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That one is clearly becoming more dominate than the leading cell.

Looks like another little cell (also with a hook) just popped up in its inflow region. These mergers often take a while to sort themselves out, sometimes they cause a would-be dominant cell to peter out, and sometimes they abruptly absorb the other cells and explode in intensity.
 

Tennie

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Looks like another little cell (also with a hook) just popped up in its inflow region. These mergers often take a while to sort themselves out, sometimes they cause a would-be dominant cell to peter out, and sometimes they abruptly absorb the other cells and explode in intensity.

Let's wait and see which of those options this particular cell will choose...
 

Equus

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Very impressive low level shear environment for those NW AL cells, appears to be a small surface low in NE MS there shifting winds to the SSE and greatly increasing low level helicity right along the thermal boundary
Screenshot_20211229-171520-401.png
 
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I don't expect anything quite on that caliber tonight, but the 12/10 beast cell seemed to struggle for a while, rapidly organized as it approached Jonesboro/Bay and put down a series of small tornadoes, then found top gear as it passed near Lake City and produced the first of the two long-track violent monsters.
 

Equus

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This has got my attention, we have a mesolow developing in the line across NE MS and that's riding along the still very obvious thermal boundary backing surface winds even further; that is definitely a volatile low level shear environment IF the cells out ahead can get rooted in the warm sector. That's essentially forming a triple point around Russellville so it's not surprising to see the low level velocities on those cells get cranking big time

sfcb.png
 

Equus

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That said, cells ahead of the line seem to be struggling to get going, so they haven't been able to take advantage of it; either way the line will probably start spitting out tornadoes with a shear environment like that
 
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