Severe WX December 29 & 30, 2021 Severe Threat

[Kory]

Ummm wow? Is this overcooking the potential or has this trended into dangerous situation territory?


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I think we can get some pretty nasty shear as the meso low/LLJ strengthen toward sunset. Placement of highest potential though is still a question mark in my opinion.

 

[Kory]

Tupelo down to 62/59 from the rain cooled airmass. We’re really reinforcing the boundary over NE MS and NW AL areas…

 

[Richardjacks]

Yeah, probably South of Shoals, northwest of Bham...got to watch that area later today.

 

[MichelleH]

This was from Fred on FB about an hour ago...

Fred here, looking over things before heading into the station this morning...
Based on trends with radar and surface observations, as well as the latest short-term high-resolution model trends, we're starting to get an idea of how the smaller scale details will play out today. The rain and storms lifting northeast across north Mississippi this morning will likely move into southern middle Tennessee and northwest Alabama over the next few hours. As they do that, they will lay down a boundary of rain-cooled air. It's looking more and more like this boundary sets up in northeast Mississippi and northwest Alabama. Near and south of that boundary, the higher severe weather risk will set up there because the air will be more unstable. IF this is where everything sets up over the next few hours, there is an increasing potential that some of the heavier rain may try to work over the atmosphere for a good part of southern middle Tennessee. IF that does happen, it would help to lower the risk some for Tennessee, especially for areas north of Highway 64.
We are NOT ready to give an all clear for our Tennessee areas or anything like that, but it is beginning to look more like the *higher* severe weather risk is setting up across northeast Mississippi and north Alabama. Watching the exact placement of that boundary this afternoon will be KEY to everything.

 

[KevinH]

Aaaaand they expanded the ENH further East and added hatched

 

[Bama Ravens]

Ummm wow? Is this overcooking the potential or has this trended into dangerous situation territory?


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I'm no expert, but that seems a bit extreme. A tornado risk certainly exists today, but a 45% chance within 25 miles of a given point? That's like a "high risk" type of thing.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

That was quick:

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2071

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Equus]

I see we have a hatch now and a pretty solid idea of where things will set up with the rain lingering... has gotten far more interesting and potentially threatening indeed

 

[JPWX]

Little insignificant features turning into potential big events at last minute. Where have we seen this before.....

 

[Lori]

I’m hearing of sun peeking out in Central AL, I’m visiting in GA, it’s humid but almost wedgy here…

 

[Gail]

Tiny hatched area!

 

[Clancy]

Tornadoes are the greatest concern but flooding will be a risk with this system as well.

 

[JayF]

Tiny hatched area!

View attachment 11291

I understand your premise here, but that is not a tiny hatched area. Even a spec of a hatched area is not tiny.

 

[Kory]

Still confused about placement of the highest risk. Tupelo is now at 59/57 and unless there is some major WAA coming, the risk placement is a bit off to me. Need it more SE.

 

[Richardjacks]

Looking at HRRR, I think we need some adjustments south...the rain cooled air is shifting south...this time of the year the sun doesn't do much.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

To me, the enhanced is too far north into Tennessee, and i believe the enhanced should be extended to bham

 

[MichelleH]

Sun is out here.

 

[JayF]

To me, the enhanced is too far north into Tennessee, and i believe the enhanced should be extended to bham

I don't think it is too far north into Tennessee. we may see that change but as of right now, I am in agreement with it.

 

[Richardjacks]

HRRR is downplaying the cape a bit for this afternoon...has a weird gap right over Bham, not sure what is causing this, no signs of that actually happening.

 

[cheestaysfly]

Getting more and more nervous here in the Shoals as I am RIGHT in the middle of that enhanced hatched area.