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Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

MNTornadoGuy said:
The UK building got EF3 153 mph which is even lower than its previous rating of EF4 170. I don't understand why it got such a low rating. Also for some reason there is a 2nd DI for the same building near it with an EF3 165 mph rating.
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There were also houses in that area that were rated high-end EF3 that probably warranted no more than a high-end EF2.
 
TH2002 said:
Is this a joke?
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Screenshot_2021-12-27_at_13-03-37_Damage_Assessment_Toolkit.png

Screenshot_2021-12-27_at_13-03-30_Damage_Assessment_Toolkit.png
 
MNTornadoGuy said:
Looks like the church that had an EF4 190 rating in Mayfield got downgraded all the way to EF3 150.
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The drop from 190 to 150 really says a lot about the confidence level that many damage surveyors have in their own calls: not a lot. Such a dramatic drop in wind speed estimate illustrates the element of human subjectivity, and a domino effect of doubt and second-guessing, in which surveyors likely feel the need to get a second opinion from someone who may not be too confident either, resulting in a “how low can you go contest” with the wind speed. There’s definitely a psychological phenomenon behind much of this.

Really makes me think that some of these people don’t know a whole lot more about analyzing tornado damage than the weather nerds who criticize them on social media. 190 to 150 isn’t a small adjustment, so somebody was waaaaay off base, though be it too high or too low, I’m not sure (my gut says the new estimate is too low, though).
 
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buckeye05 said:
The drop from 190 to 150 really says a lot about the confidence level that many damage surveyors have in their calls: not a lot. Such a dramatic drop in wind speed estimate illustrates the element of human subjectivity, a domino effect of doubt and second-guessing, in which surveyors feel the need to get a second opinion from someone who may not be too confident either, resulting in a “how low can you go contest” with the wind speed.

Really makes me think that some of these people don’t know a whole lot more about analyzing tornado damage than the weather nerds who criticize them on social media. 190 to 150 isn’t a small adjustment, so somebody was waaaaay of base, though be it too high or too low, I’m not sure (my gut says the new estimate is too low, though).
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I am really shocked!
 
buckeye05 said:
The drop from 190 to 150 really says a lot about the confidence level that many damage surveyors have in their own calls: not a lot. Such a dramatic drop in wind speed estimate illustrates the element of human subjectivity, and a domino effect of doubt and second-guessing, in which surveyors likely feel the need to get a second opinion from someone who may not be too confident either, resulting in a “how low can you go contest” with the wind speed. There’s definitely a psychological phenomenon behind much of this.

Really makes me think that some of these people don’t know a whole lot more about analyzing tornado damage than the weather nerds who criticize them on social media. 190 to 150 isn’t a small adjustment, so somebody was waaaaay off base, though be it too high or too low, I’m not sure (my gut says the new estimate is too low, though).
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I also think there is an immense amount of paranoia going around. Perhaps paranoia that they are going to get ripped apart by their higher ups about the climatology of EF5 tornadoes so they are giving the remaining DI's as low of a rating as possible to avoid such a confrontation.
 
TH2002 said:
I also think there is an immense amount of paranoia going around. Perhaps paranoia that they are going to get ripped apart by their higher ups about the climatology of EF5 tornadoes so they are giving the remaining DI's as low of a rating as possible to avoid such a confrontation.
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Gotta wonder if they're doing it as a "screw you" to the higher ups at this point.
 
Tomcats Forever! said:
Gotta wonder if they're doing it as a "screw you" to the higher ups at this point.
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It's more like a "screw you" to the entirety of the meteorology community including weather nerds and storm chasers who had pretty much universally deemed it to be an EF5. Now they're saying "Nah, it's just a high end EF4 cause we said so. Y'all know nothin' about tornadoes"
 
TH2002 said:
It's more like a "screw you" to the entirety of the meteorology community including weather nerds and storm chasers who had pretty much universally deemed it to be an EF5. Now they're saying "Nah, it's just a high end EF4 cause we said so. Y'all know nothin' about tornadoes"
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As bad as all this is, I really and truly doubt this is what is actually going on. While ego may play a small role in some of this, it probably isn’t the driving force. I would place my bets on decreased confidence among surveyors, reemergence of La Plata syndrome (or more accurately, Vilonia syndrome), and passing off surveying duties/final calls on to entities outside of the NWS.
 
buckeye05 said:
The drop from 190 to 150 really says a lot about the confidence level that many damage surveyors have in their own calls: not a lot. Such a dramatic drop in wind speed estimate illustrates the element of human subjectivity, and a domino effect of doubt and second-guessing, in which surveyors likely feel the need to get a second opinion from someone who may not be too confident either, resulting in a “how low can you go contest” with the wind speed. There’s definitely a psychological phenomenon behind much of this.

Really makes me think that some of these people don’t know a whole lot more about analyzing tornado damage than the weather nerds who criticize them on social media. 190 to 150 isn’t a small adjustment, so somebody was waaaaay off base, though be it too high or too low, I’m not sure (my gut says the new estimate is too low, though).
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There are quite a few significant drops in estimated wind speeds on DIs. One EF4 DI in Dawson Springs was downgraded to EF3 165 which is a 15 mph drop. The UK building had an EF4 170 "placeholder" DI that was downgraded to EF3 which is a 15-5 mph drop. While these are not as significant as the church they are still notable. If they do use placeholder DIs for potentially violent damage they should probably be EF3 instead of going for a rating way higher than the final one.
 
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