Starting to get into that timeframe now, because of gearing up at the station, that I will be checking in less frequently the next few days. I see the Euro continues the trend toward a more neutral trough axis as we head toward midnight Friday night onward, and there's more subtle curvature in the base. This will always be capped by the fact that it's a trough sliding across the top of a ridge. That means things are being squeezed and you don't have as much cyclonic vorticity advection at the base. However, we've already discussed at length about how that only limits this so much, and is very far away from actually reducing the threat so that it's not appreciable and potentially significant. We're about to get this into most of the mesoscale models. I can see already that most of them are underdoing the warm air and moisture advection, just like they did with the Sunday/Monday system. The same models that, 48-60 hrs out, told me west central and northwest AL wouldn't get out of the 50s on Sunday when we hit 73 at MSL and 76 at TCL are delaying the morning moisture return. Surprise surprise. The Euro maintains the signal for evening discrete activity with that lead subtle disturbance, and is now trending stronger with the stuff after midnight into Saturday morning. The WRF-FV3 now has through 6pm Friday within its range, as did the 6z run of the Baron 3k, and both were developing discrete stuff in north MS/west TN by sunset Friday evening. I'm not ready to sound alarms on the tornado threat publicly until we get this deeper into mesoscale data, but when we look at that mesoscale data, we're going to need to make sure it is properly accounting for the speed of moisture return and warm air advection Friday, and that it does not erroneously decouple the boundary layer Friday overnight.
