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COVID-19 detected in United States (12 Viewers)

bjdeming

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Meanwhile, in Oregon, per https://www.kptv.com/news/some-sher...a8666520-2b9e-11eb-aa68-47bca95d8d31.amp.html , it freaks me out that sheriffs actually have to say this (more about the restrictions here ), especially the week before T-Day:


I'm just drawing the line at making a physical arrest over someone having turkey dinner and there's three households there with seven people. I just draw the line there. . .We're going to evaluate the call . . . If it's just so and so was in, you know, Hoy's Hardware store without a mask, we're probably not going to do anything with that. But if it's we get a call of residents and they're having a party. We'll make contact with them, we'll talk about social distancing, wearing a mask all those important things that truly almost all Oregonians are doing anyways. . . But Yon says it is ultimately the individual's decision on whether they adhere to these health and safety measures.

"To me, it's what is our role in our community?" Yon said. "We are not the Gestapo, that's not what we're about."

I like Oregon, in part, because it's varied both naturally and in people; its image in the rest of the country, of 60s-style liberalism, isn't true in daily life. There are such people, including those who would rat on someone's social get-together, but I had thought these were balanced by many others who are much closer to the mainstream.

But this is just incredible to me, that law enforcement has to take this stand.

And yet, after this year's social unrest, I'm proud that they do.

Whew. Things are just so weird.

Hope it's better than this in the South! And I truly hope 2021 is going to be better.
 

Jacob

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Upper plains state should be approaching their peaks if this wave is going to follow the same pattern. ND/SD should be at/near peak, same with Iowa/Nebraska. Will be interesting to see where they stand this time next week.
 

Jacob

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Dishonest reporting like this is what has frustrated many people like myself throughout this pandemic.


What the headline states is factually true, but there's a fall surge throughout the country, and Florida's increase in cases is actually below the national average. Why don't they mention that Illinois didn't go full open, yet in the same time period their cases have increased by 7x. Or Colorado, which has increased by 10x. Or California, that has increased by 5x. Or New Mexico, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, or any of the other states that increased faster than Florida.

I obviously have different opinions on how best to handle this pandemic than the majority here, but reporting like this only erodes what little confidence is left in the media. Frankly, calling this reporting is generous, it is basically pure propaganda.
 

bjdeming

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Got curious about ventilator supply and found this September Johns Hopkins report (PDF download via Google search): about 120,000 back then. Interestingly, they say that availability of respiratory technicians is more of a limiting factor than ventilator numbers.

And again, just as one information source, daily tracking data via Atlantic's COVID tracker are here.
 

Jacob

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Upper plains state should be approaching their peaks if this wave is going to follow the same pattern. ND/SD should be at/near peak, same with Iowa/Nebraska. Will be interesting to see where they stand this time next week.

Looks like all of the upper midwest states have peaked, with hospitalizations and cases now dropping in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

Next up to peak/start dropping in the next 1-2 weeks: Wyoming, Michigan, Indiana, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Ohio, and Montana.
 
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Evan

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Looks like all of the upper midwest states have peaked, with hospitalizations and cases now dropping in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

Next up to peak/start dropping in the next 1-2 weeks: Wyoming, Michigan, Indiana, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Ohio, and Montana.

I think this is quite premature considering the data collection gaps and reporting issues surrounding the Thanksgiving Holiday -- especially since a number of those states reported large increases on November 27th and are likely to see increases next week as reporting and testing difficulties are smoothed out.

The sudden jump on November 27th was almost assuredly due to testing/data collection delays as for several days prior the number of daily tests dropped suddenly then spiked to a new record (of over 2.1 million tests) on November 27th. Additionally, there was a very sharp drop in test numbers for today -- even more than usual for a Sunday -- and the 7 day average has dropped signicantly even though hospitalizations nationwide are at a record number. That's a discrepancy that can only be explained by data collection and testing delays.

It's definitely possible that there's been progress in some of those states, but I absolutely do think it's premature to say they've peaked until at least a week of post-Thanksgiving reporting has been ingested into the usual reporting sites. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see some rather large spikes nationally in the upcoming week due to delayed testing and reporting getting caught up.

I'd be hesitant to say those states have peaked until we've seen both hospitalizations AND tests per day drop for a week on the state level in the post-Thanksgiving period. Again, you may be correct, but I think it's hard to say the data supports those conclusions yet until the post-holiday period has had time to ingest and correct delayed data. State agencies, labs, doctors' offices, hospitals, etc are all heavily impacted by holiday staffing, scheduling, and reporting. I'd love to be wrong!
 

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I think this is quite premature considering the data collection gaps and reporting issues surrounding the Thanksgiving Holiday -- especially since a number of those states reported large increases on November 27th and are likely to see increases next week as reporting and testing difficulties are smoothed out.

The sudden jump on November 27th was almost assuredly due to testing/data collection delays as for several days prior the number of daily tests dropped suddenly then spiked to a new record (of over 2.1 million tests) on November 27th. Additionally, there was a very sharp drop in test numbers for today -- even more than usual for a Sunday -- and the 7 day average has dropped signicantly even though hospitalizations nationwide are at a record number. That's a discrepancy that can only be explained by data collection and testing delays.

It's definitely possible that there's been progress in some of those states, but I absolutely do think it's premature to say they've peaked until at least a week of post-Thanksgiving reporting has been ingested into the usual reporting sites. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see some rather large spikes nationally in the upcoming week due to delayed testing and reporting getting caught up.

I'd be hesitant to say those states have peaked until we've seen both hospitalizations AND tests per day drop for a week on the state level in the post-Thanksgiving period. Again, you may be correct, but I think it's hard to say the data supports those conclusions yet until the post-holiday period has had time to ingest and correct delayed data. State agencies, labs, doctors' offices, hospitals, etc are all heavily impacted by holiday staffing, scheduling, and reporting. I'd love to be wrong!
Because most of my family lives in Illinois, we did a Zoom Thanksgiving this year. Primarily because my parents are taking care of a sibling that is at the highest of risk categories and because Illinois is just weird. And just like we distanced ourselves during thanksgiving, we are also required to 100% mask if we go into the office. I do hope that it calms down, but I have a feeling that because of Thanksgiving that we will see a spike further than what we already have. I hope not but I feel that it will.
 

Jacob

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I think this is quite premature considering the data collection gaps and reporting issues surrounding the Thanksgiving Holiday -- especially since a number of those states reported large increases on November 27th and are likely to see increases next week as reporting and testing difficulties are smoothed out.

The sudden jump on November 27th was almost assuredly due to testing/data collection delays as for several days prior the number of daily tests dropped suddenly then spiked to a new record (of over 2.1 million tests) on November 27th. Additionally, there was a very sharp drop in test numbers for today -- even more than usual for a Sunday -- and the 7 day average has dropped signicantly even though hospitalizations nationwide are at a record number. That's a discrepancy that can only be explained by data collection and testing delays.

It's definitely possible that there's been progress in some of those states, but I absolutely do think it's premature to say they've peaked until at least a week of post-Thanksgiving reporting has been ingested into the usual reporting sites. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see some rather large spikes nationally in the upcoming week due to delayed testing and reporting getting caught up.

I'd be hesitant to say those states have peaked until we've seen both hospitalizations AND tests per day drop for a week on the state level in the post-Thanksgiving period. Again, you may be correct, but I think it's hard to say the data supports those conclusions yet until the post-holiday period has had time to ingest and correct delayed data. State agencies, labs, doctors' offices, hospitals, etc are all heavily impacted by holiday staffing, scheduling, and reporting. I'd love to be wrong!

I think there's two different things here so I'll seperate my response out.

First, I think the data shows that ND/SD/IA/WI peaked before potential data contamination surrounding the Thanksgiving holidays would've occurred, as I have each of those peaking around 11/15. I'll concede the others may be contaminated due to testing/hospitalization reports this past week, so might need another week to confirm those. The reports coming in the next couple days should be interesting.

The time frame of these states peaking and being in post-peak now fits perfectly with the NE US Wave in the spring, the summer wave in the south, and Europe (both waves 1 and 2). I don't have an explanation of why this pattern seems to be repeating, but it's been basically the same everywhere.

The second point would be not Thanksgiving data issues, but whether or not Thanksgiving will act like a super-spreader and we see a large increase in cases/hospitalizations due to it. That I don't know and really don't have much of a comment on it. It is a very reasonable take to assume that will happen. If it does, from a data perspective, it'll be very interesting to me to see how it affects those areas that should already be at/post peak. I suspect in those areas if it occurs it'll be a quick second peak/second high, followed by a quick fall.
 

Evan

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I think there's two different things here so I'll seperate my response out.

First, I think the data shows that ND/SD/IA/WI peaked before potential data contamination surrounding the Thanksgiving holidays would've occurred, as I have each of those peaking around 11/15. I'll concede the others may be contaminated due to testing/hospitalization reports this past week, so might need another week to confirm those. The reports coming in the next couple days should be interesting.

The time frame of these states peaking and being in post-peak now fits perfectly with the NE US Wave in the spring, the summer wave in the south, and Europe (both waves 1 and 2). I don't have an explanation of why this pattern seems to be repeating, but it's been basically the same everywhere.

The second point would be not Thanksgiving data issues, but whether or not Thanksgiving will act like a super-spreader and we see a large increase in cases/hospitalizations due to it. That I don't know and really don't have much of a comment on it. It is a very reasonable take to assume that will happen. If it does, from a data perspective, it'll be very interesting to me to see how it affects those areas that should already be at/post peak. I suspect in those areas if it occurs it'll be a quick second peak/second high, followed by a quick fall.

I definitely don't think South Dakota has peaked when you consider how heavily influenced the 7 day average of new cases is by the total absence of data on Thanksgiving (nothing was reported for that day) and that hospitalizations have barely budged. In fact, basically 100% of the drop in hospitalizations in South Dakota could be explained by the number of deaths the state has experienced over the past 7 days. I think when it's impossible to decipher whether or not hospitalizations fell due to people dying or not it's a bit premature to say that state has peaked.

The other states are a mixed bag as well. In Wisconsin, testing and new cases dropped at about the same rate. And, hospitalizations have nudged back up over the past few days.

I don't think it's really that worthwhile to dig into each of the four you mentioned to point out why I think it's premature to say they've peaked -- I believe you understand my argument as to why I think that.

Ultimately, we'll know soon enough, so no real use in either one of us wasting more braincells on something neither of us can control. The data should be much clearer by next weekend. Let's all hope those states truly have peaked, but my hunch is that any minute gains they made in the past week or two can easily be explained by the issues surrounding Thanksgiving data collection and testing, and that social distancing, mask-wearing, etc all increase in "hot" regions as cases accelerate as I've previously pointed out.

All that should smooth out in the next week, and unless people really did listen to the advice of public health officials, the impact of Thanksgiving socialization, shopping, etc should also begin to influence numbers in the next 7-10 days. If numbers continue to drop in those states during that time then I completely agree they've peaked and I will be absolutely ecstatic. My suspicion, however, is that any lull is quite temporary in cold-climate states unless and until the population in those places really begins to follow the advice of public health officials.

I'll be as happy as a proverbial lark if the United States busts through the other side of the Thanksgiving holiday and numbers either hold steady or begin to decline. I'll be screaming Hallelujah from the rooftops if three weeks from now all we've done is drop drop drop. But, I'm skeptical until I see it happen, because I remember what happened after Memorial Day and July 4th, and those crowds and get-togethers were largely outdoor affairs in most places.

Unfortunately, I think we're going to continue to experience peaks and lulls throughout the winter depending upon holidays, how the public reacts to recommended mitigation measures in a given period, and what the weather is like until we start to see vaccination efforts payoff and/or a new administration changes the federal government's approach to mitigating COVID.
 

Jacob

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I definitely don't think South Dakota has peaked when you consider how heavily influenced the 7 day average of new cases is by the total absence of data on Thanksgiving (nothing was reported for that day) and that hospitalizations have barely budged. In fact, basically 100% of the drop in hospitalizations in South Dakota could be explained by the number of deaths the state has experienced over the past 7 days. I think when it's impossible to decipher whether or not hospitalizations fell due to people dying or not it's a bit premature to say that state has peaked.

The other states are a mixed bag as well. In Wisconsin, testing and new cases dropped at about the same rate. And, hospitalizations have nudged back up over the past few days.

I don't think it's really that worthwhile to dig into each of the four you mentioned to point out why I think it's premature to say they've peaked -- I believe you understand my argument as to why I think that.

Ultimately, we'll know soon enough, so no real use in either one of us wasting more braincells on something neither of us can control. The data should be much clearer by next weekend. Let's all hope those states truly have peaked, but my hunch is that any minute gains they made in the past week or two can easily be explained by the issues surrounding Thanksgiving data collection and testing, and that social distancing, mask-wearing, etc all increase in "hot" regions as cases accelerate as I've previously pointed out.

All that should smooth out in the next week, and unless people really did listen to the advice of public health officials, the impact of Thanksgiving socialization, shopping, etc should also begin to influence numbers in the next 7-10 days. If numbers continue to drop in those states during that time then I completely agree they've peaked and I will be absolutely ecstatic. My suspicion, however, is that any lull is quite temporary in cold-climate states unless and until the population in those places really begins to follow the advice of public health officials.

I'll be as happy as a proverbial lark if the United States busts through the other side of the Thanksgiving holiday and numbers either hold steady or begin to decline. I'll be screaming Hallelujah from the rooftops if three weeks from now all we've done is drop drop drop. But, I'm skeptical until I see it happen, because I remember what happened after Memorial Day and July 4th, and those crowds and get-togethers were largely outdoor affairs in most places.

Unfortunately, I think we're going to continue to experience peaks and lulls throughout the winter depending upon holidays, how the public reacts to recommended mitigation measures in a given period, and what the weather is like until we start to see vaccination efforts payoff and/or a new administration changes the federal government's approach to mitigating COVID.

You are correct that we could probably split-hairs all day over each individual state, but the only real answer will be what data flows in from them in the next couple weeks.

As for your holiday point, I remember a lot of hype leading up to Memorial Day and 4th of July, but I don't remember either being overly represented in the data that came in from the following weeks. Do you see that differently? Genuine question, I'm looking over cases/hospitalizations and I suppose you could argue that Memorial Day kicked off the southern wave, but I don't see even hardly a blip for 4th of July, as the southern US was already in a high-spread pattern and approaching peak.

I disagree with the last paragraph because other areas haven't seen a peaks/luls pattern, regardless of the amount of restrictions that have been taking place. Similar geographic areas tend to peak at the same time, even if the restrictions are drastically different from one area to the next. I think Thanksgiving/Christmas will end up being mostly noise among the larger pattern.

That doesn't mean I think the US as a whole is about to peak and roll over. There's a heavy seasonality to this virus, and I suspect we'll see regions across the US peak weeks/maybe months apart. This might give a false impression of a peaks/lulls pattern when the US is viewed as a whole.

But again, the last paragraphs I typed above goes back to your statement above, we can discuss it until our fingers are sore, but the only thing that can prove either point is the data that will come in over the next few weeks/months.
 

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Colbert County reported 150 new cases today. I wonder if that is layover from the weekend? That is the most I can recall in a one day time span.
 

Evan

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Evan

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Jacob, unless there is a big backlog pending, Iowa definitely seems to fit with your theory of peaking in certain areas. Just seems odd how quickly tests per day have dropped.
 

Jacob

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Jacob, unless there is a big backlog pending, Iowa definitely seems to fit with your theory of peaking in certain areas. Just seems odd how quickly tests per day have dropped.

I think there definitely has to be a backlog from the 27th-30th. Just as a rough estimate, it would seem that there would be about 10-15k tests backlogged from those days. I suppose that will show up today or one of the next couple days as a big test dump. Before that though, the slight decline in tests in the 10-14 days before Thanksgiving fits with the testing pattern seen when other states peak. I assume that's simply less sick people going to get tested, so tests start to drop? I'm not really sure, but you can see Florida, Alabama, Arizona, etc. show the same pattern in test numbers following their summer peaks.
 
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Evan

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A sizeable dump of backlogged tests today (and deaths), but will be interesting to see where we are this Friday and this weekend. Thus far, it's not yet been as bad as I had feared but time will tell.
 

Jacob

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A sizeable dump of backlogged tests today (and deaths), but will be interesting to see where we are this Friday and this weekend. Thus far, it's not yet been as bad as I had feared but time will tell.

Seeing a lot of the backlogged data fill in in Alabama yesterday/today. We get the occasional data dump here regardless of holidays, so I suspect we will continue to see them the rest of the week.

Increased cases here in AL (relative to the summer peak) reflect the increase in tests since the summer somewhat, but we've also now jumped past our highest hospitalization numbers from July. The increase across the southern states isn't as uniform this time, at least in how quickly the increases are occurring, as it was back in the summer. Alabama is ahead of MS/GA/SC/FL, and more in line with Tennessee. Not really sure the reason there, perhaps some testing/reporting differences between the states.
 

Jacob

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It takes some time for the data to fill in on the % of ER visits that are CLI related (link I posted a page or two back), but a few states that *might* be showing a mid-November peak in ER visits include:

Idaho (not reflected yet in tests/hospitalizations, could be a lag in CLI data)
Montana (showing peak in cases, CLI, and a plateau in hospitalizations)
Nebraska (showing peak in cases, CLI, and hospitalizations)
North Dakota (showing peak in cases, CLI, and hospitalizations)
Wisconsin (showing peak in cases, CLI, and hospitalizations)
Illinois (showing peak in cases, CLI, and hospitalizations)
*all metrics could be affected by Thanksgiving lag as Evan pointed out. Should have a good idea by this time next week on that

Unfortunately that data isn't shown for every state, so I can't compare South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wyoming, Colorado, and a few others where it would be nice to know.

*Note: I want to note that I keep posting about these possible peaks to have a record on here as much as anything. I want to be able to look back in a week, a month, 3 months, etc. and see how I was interpreting the data and where things went from there. I appreciate the conversation from Evan and others, and don't want it to seem like I'm just trying to hammer my point home. That's not the intent, and my theory/idea will be proven right/wrong in time regardless of how many times I post about it.
 

Evan

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It takes some time for the data to fill in on the % of ER visits that are CLI related (link I posted a page or two back), but a few states that *might* be showing a mid-November peak in ER visits include:

Idaho (not reflected yet in tests/hospitalizations, could be a lag in CLI data)
Montana (showing peak in cases, CLI, and a plateau in hospitalizations)
Nebraska (showing peak in cases, CLI, and hospitalizations)
North Dakota (showing peak in cases, CLI, and hospitalizations)
Wisconsin (showing peak in cases, CLI, and hospitalizations)
Illinois (showing peak in cases, CLI, and hospitalizations)
*all metrics could be affected by Thanksgiving lag as Evan pointed out. Should have a good idea by this time next week on that

Unfortunately that data isn't shown for every state, so I can't compare South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wyoming, Colorado, and a few others where it would be nice to know.

*Note: I want to note that I keep posting about these possible peaks to have a record on here as much as anything. I want to be able to look back in a week, a month, 3 months, etc. and see how I was interpreting the data and where things went from there. I appreciate the conversation from Evan and others, and don't want it to seem like I'm just trying to hammer my point home. That's not the intent, and my theory/idea will be proven right/wrong in time regardless of how many times I post about it.

You're good in my book. Love the discussion.
 

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I appreciate the data being posted and the science behind it being discussed. Hopefully, in the next few month things will slow down a little. David Spillers, CEO Huntsville Hospital, was rather bleak today during the Madison County Covid press conference. One of his biggest concerns was the number of staffing out in the hospitals due to exposure or actual sickness. The Madison County Covid Press conferences are held every Wednesday at noon. I find them very imformative since they mostly talk about what is going on in the region (North Alabama). The UK approved use of Phizer's vaccine and will begin vaccinations within days.
 
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