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COVID-19 detected in United States (3 Viewers)


ghost

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NW AL
Almost 92k cases in the US today and well over 1000 deaths.

BUT MUH T-CELL IMMUNITY AND HERD IMMUNITY!!?

Yeah, testing has increased, but so what? We never much dropped below 40-50k cases. We had a lull and nothing more. I fully expect 125k+ cases per day by the end of election week.

Very little chance we get this epidemic control without a cohesive federal policy that the States are willing to accept and adopt. Just as telling, the lack of American leadership on the world stage is unquestionably part of the reason why the pandemic has been able to gain such a global hold over the entire planet.

Without major changes in policy and leadership, the United States is going to end up back in an economic meltdown, having completely wasted the previous months and prior lockdowns. At this point, the national strategy it seems, is simply "don't get sick, loser." Hard to think that lends itself to an eventual victory or positive outcome.
Evan... you must have been fooled by some fake news... Don't you know our fearless leader has ended the Covid pandemic?

 

Jacob

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674
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Moody, AL
Almost 92k cases in the US today and well over 1000 deaths.

BUT MUH T-CELL IMMUNITY AND HERD IMMUNITY!!?

Yeah, testing has increased, but so what? We never much dropped below 40-50k cases. We had a lull and nothing more. I fully expect 125k+ cases per day by the end of election week.

Very little chance we get this epidemic control without a cohesive federal policy that the States are willing to accept and adopt. Just as telling, the lack of American leadership on the world stage is unquestionably part of the reason why the pandemic has been able to gain such a global hold over the entire planet.

Without major changes in policy and leadership, the United States is going to end up back in an economic meltdown, having completely wasted the previous months and prior lockdowns. At this point, the national strategy it seems, is simply "don't get sick, loser." Hard to think that lends itself to an eventual victory or positive outcome.

What type of national strategy do you suggest? Genuine question, as I know me and you are likely worlds apart in how we view this pandemic, but I'm curious what type of national strategy you think could make a significant difference.
 

bjdeming

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2020 Supporter
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290
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Corvallis, Oregon
If there's a high rate of influenza vaccination and an effective vaccine (unlike last year's 35% effectiveness) combined with masks and social distancing then I wonder if we could potentially have an impact on influenza spread for a few years.
Anything is possible Well, almost. Anyway, I remember the big yellow "Quarantine" signs on houses where there was measles. It was everywhere, city and country (where we lived, and got the "German" kind).

Now, at least, that's not common.

Just for the record:

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2019–2020 season was moderate with an estimated 38 million people sick with flu, 18 million visits to a health care provider for flu, 400,000 hospitalizations for flu, and 22,000 flu deaths.

Source

That's "moderate."

And, not to compare apples and oranges here, but per the Atlantic's COVID tracking project for the US at https://covidtracking.com/data , as of October 29:

Total cases: 8,890,551
Total hospitalizations: 470,579
Recoveries: 3,554,336
Deaths: 220,423
Currently hospitalized: 46,095
Currently in ICU: 9,208
Currently on ventilator: 2,403

Total tests: 142,674,796

Hope the day comes in my lifetime when our kids are asking what "flu" is and what it was like to live through the Great Pandemic.
 

gangstonc

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Meridianville
What type of national strategy do you suggest? Genuine question, as I know me and you are likely worlds apart in how we view this pandemic, but I'm curious what type of national strategy you think could make a significant difference.
One thing I would like to see is rigorous contact tracing and mandatory quarantine for those potentially infected.

I know a family that got it and had mild symptoms. They continued going on shopping trips and to restaurants like normal because “it wasn’t that bad.”
 

Evan

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McCalla, AL
What type of national strategy do you suggest? Genuine question, as I know me and you are likely worlds apart in how we view this pandemic, but I'm curious what type of national strategy you think could make a significant difference.

Literally having a cohesive national strategy. We don't have one. The President has repeatedly undermined the CDC, NIH, and FDA as well as numerous other health agencies and individual public health experts.

I know this post is bordering on the political, but it's hard to discuss COVID policy on any scale and completely avoid the political aspect. I ask the mods for patience due to that kind of unavoidable adjacency.

As far as a specific strategy, I think the Germans have done as good of a job as any country, and they're close to us on a descriptive level when it comes to their healthcare system structure and economic makeup. Probably moreso than any other European country.

The Germans have repeatedly focused their efforts on containment, having robust contact-tracing and notifications systems, etc. You don't have to force people into things they want. You have to have a cohesive strategy that convinces people to participate. Likewise, with masks, I think mandates are only needed in extreme cases. Generally speaking, you can rely on private businesses and societal pressure and those are likely much more effective anyway. I mean, who the heck is wearing a mask because they think the police are going to stop them? Absolutely no one. People either do it so they can shop at a business, required to by an employer, think it's the right thing to do, or do it to comply with societal pressure and expectations.

Ultimately, the leadership on COVID in this country has been quite poor simply because of the President's behavior and actions, and the impact of his behavior and actions on state/local officials that are members of his political party. Likewise broad swaths of our society have decided to ignore the pandemic simply because the President has implied or directly said they should. All of those things have had massive negative impacts on the country and our handling of COVID.

Any kind of strategy which helps to get people to take COVID seriously, and follow the advice of public health officials, would have a major impact on the progression of the pandemic.
 

warneagle

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Germany is probably the model, yeah. New Zealand has done a great job but they have the luxury of being an island nation and being able to pretty easily restrict wide-scale travel in a way that most other countries can't.
 

KoD

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Over 107k new confirmed cases of covid-19 yesterday in the US....
 

Mike S

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Pfizer confident they have a vaccine


  • Dr. Albert Bourla, chairman and CEO of Pfizer, hailed the trial results as a “great day for science and humanity.”
  • Pfizer and BioNTech said the case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received a placebo indicated a vaccine efficacy rate of above 90% at seven days after the second dose.
  • It means that protection from Covid-19 is achieved 28 days after the initial vaccination, which consists of a two-dose schedule.


 

Jacob

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674
Location
Moody, AL
Pfizer confident they have a vaccine






I came here to post this. Potentially very good news.

Personally, me nor my family will not consider getting the vaccine until it has been on the market a while and proven safe on a wide-scale, but I certainly hope it is proven to be safe and effective.
 

bjdeming

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Reuters has consistently good coverage of the race to a vaccine, so here's their take this morning at https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...we-in-the-covid-19-vaccine-race-idUSL1N2HV027 :

U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc PFE.N and German partner BioNTech SE BNTX.O22UAy.DE are the first to release data showing that their vaccine worked in a large, late-stage clinical trial.

The next data releases will likely be from U.S. biotech firm Moderna Inc MRNA.O, possibly in November, and from Britain-based AstraZeneca Plc AZN.L with the University of Oxford in November or December. Johnson & Johnson JNJ.N says it is on track to deliver data this year.

What happens in these trials?

The companies are testing their vaccines . . .
 

Evan

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161k new COVID cases today. Then pandemic is raging out of control right before Thanksgiving and Christmas. This is not going to end well.
 

warneagle

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Yeah, we've more than doubled the daily number of new cases in the space of 10 days. Every state in the lower 48 other than Vermont is classified as "uncontrolled spread". Things are as bad as they've ever been.
 

StormStalker

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My uncle was released from the hospital yesterday. Hopefully he is on his way to a full recovery. He avoided having to be put on a vent so that was good. I imagine it will take some time to build his strength back up. I believe he got better after he received the plasma. The Remdisivir and steroids didn't work as well as the doctors had hoped so they went with the plasma over the weekend.
 

Evan

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183,500 cases today. Average deaths and the rate of hospitalizations continue to climb sharply as well. Certain localities or regions are experiencing completely overwhelmed healthcare systems. We're about to see a marked increase in case fatality rate in those areas. A lot of senseless preventable deaths are about to occur.

Sadly, there is very little leadership at the state or federal level in a number of the places that are being hit the hardest right now.

I had made a few extremely aggressive predictions to friends and family back in mid-October as to where I thought the daily case count would be by election day. I shot for a pretty high number and unfortunately it was exceeded. I say all that to say...this is an aggressive prediction, but I see very little in the way of preventing us from hitting 250-275k cases per day by November 30th.

The higher that number is before Thanksgiving the worse that December and January are going to be. I have to hope that increasing population immunity will start to eventually slow the growth rate because it's increasing so rapidly it should start to struggle to find uninfected hosts in the hardest hit areas. With that said, I won't be shocked if we get close to 450-500k cases per day by January 1st absent community immunity pushing down growth rates in densely populated areas.

I think we are entering the most dangerous phase of the pandemic right now. This situation is pretty close to being out-of-control. We need a miracle, folks. And we're so darn close to having workable vaccination programs!!! So incredibly frustrating.
 
Last edited:

Jacob

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674
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Moody, AL
183,500 cases today. Average deaths and the rate of hospitalizations continue to climb sharply as well. Certain localities or regions are experiencing completely overwhelmed healthcare systems. We're about to see a marked increase in case fatality rate in those areas. A lot of senseless preventable deaths are about to occur.

Sadly, there is very little leadership at the state or federal level in a number of the places that are being hit the hardest right now.

I had made a few extremely aggressive predictions to friends and family back in mid-October as to where I thought the daily case count would be by election day. I shot for a pretty high number and unfortunately it was exceeded. I say all that to say...this is an aggressive prediction, but I see very little in the way of preventing us from hitting 250-275k cases per day by November 30th.

The higher that number is before Thanksgiving the worse that December and January are going to be. I have to hope that increasing population immunity will start to eventually slow the growth rate because it's increasing so rapidly it should start to struggle to find uninfected hosts in the hardest hit areas. With that said, I won't be shocked if we get close to 450-500k cases per day by January 1st absent community immunity pushing down growth rates in densely populated areas.

I think we are entering the most dangerous phase of the pandemic right now. This situation is pretty close to being out-of-control. We need a miracle, folks. And we're so darn close to having workable vaccination programs!!! So incredibly frustrating.

For better or worse, we'll probably have a 2-3 week idea of where things are heading based on what is going on in Europe. Some mixed signals coming out of there right now.

For me it's hard to guess numbers going forward based on testing. If we were still testing at the rate we were in the summer, reported cases would be 30-45% lower than they are now. With testing at current levels, I could see the 250k-275k number being an area we see for a while, as new areas flare while heavier hit areas start to see less community spread. If testing levels continue to increase, that number will obviously be higher.

If you look back in the thread, you see where I pushed the idea that after 45-60 days of rapidly increasing spread in an area, it seems to hit a wall and start to fall. It won't be useful US-wide to view this, because of the strong seasonality of the spread and with the changing weather, but down at the state level it'll be interesting to see if this pattern continues. Belgium/Netherlands have had a sharp fall since November 1st, but the testing is so much different from country to country I'm not sure if that is a legitimate fall yet.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
A good way to look at the current state of each state is the % of ER visits that are coded as CLI. The CDC releases this data, and you can sort it by state (they don't have all 50 states though). https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#ed-visits

You can see an increase in the southern states over the last month, but you can really see the sharp increase in the northern states.

Also of note, ignore then trend of the most recent 3-5 days, it takes a few days for data to trickle in and it almost always shows a drop in the most recent few days.
 

JayF

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A good way to look at the current state of each state is the % of ER visits that are coded as CLI. The CDC releases this data, and you can sort it by state (they don't have all 50 states though). https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#ed-visits

You can see an increase in the southern states over the last month, but you can really see the sharp increase in the northern states.

Also of note, ignore then trend of the most recent 3-5 days, it takes a few days for data to trickle in and it almost always shows a drop in the most recent few days.
I like that chart. I think it is telling to a certain extent. My question about it is does it include those who go to the ER with possible symptoms because they use the ER like a primary care physician? I, unfortunately, know people that do that.
 
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