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Severe WX April 4th-6th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

Hoping this will track a bit north and split the difference between Cordele and Vienna.
 
New MCD for north Alabama and middle Tennessee, 40% chance of a watch:

mcd0424.gif



Just got home from the doctor and called my mom and told her she was right on the bottom edge of that discussion area and told her it might be one of those days like when I was a kid we watched big storms pop up overhead and then move into Alabama.
 
There may be some broad rotation developing on that cell north of Warner Robins. Not impressive on reflectivity but one to watch for the future. It's probably right over the Macon airport right now, but if it keeps moving east it'll be moving into mostly unpopulated areas of Twiggs County.
 
With the really marginal shear present (mesoanalysis suggesting just 100-150 m2s2 in much of the main risk area) it may come down to mesoscale features to produce tornadoes; strong mesocyclones may struggle to get going, though large hail is probably gonna be an issue. Those storms just have the look of big hail droppers with major instability and steep midlevel lapse rates.
 
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