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Severe WX April 4th-6th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

With the really marginal shear present (mesoanalysis suggesting just 100-150 m2s2 in much of the main risk area) it may come down to mesoscale features to produce tornadoes; strong mesocyclones may struggle to get going, though large hail is probably gonna be an issue. Those storms just have the look of big hail droppers with major instability and steep midlevel lapse rates.
That and a lot of the warm sector is really junky right now, especially west of I-75. It's going to be hard for anything to really become dominant in there. Might want to watch the cell near Oconee though, it's somewhat isolated. There's still some very broad rotation in the cell over Warner Robins too, but it doesn't look like it's in any hurry to get more organized.
 
81/65 here, windy and hazy but full sun, cold front is quickly popping off cells just to the west now
 
Our day two in Savannah has ended (mainly due to Brittany's sixth sense and our experience). It felt hot and humid walking those streets.
 
For anyone who wasn't watching the cam, here are some screenshots I took and posted on FB. Looked like it might've been on the ground. Youtube chat claimed it was spotter confirmed as it was happening.

 
New Tornado Watch for primarily Eastern TN.

 
Suddenly thunderstorm! Cold front cells blowing up. Heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind

IMG_20220406_160056321_HDR.jpg
 
Consecutive runs of the HRRR show cells initiating along the cold front. How well they hold together is a bit up in the air (literally) but cells that form in that area will be the primary problem-storms for N AL and N GA.
 
Suddenly thunderstorm! Cold front cells blowing up. Heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind

IMG_20220406_160056321_HDR.jpg

My son called a few minutes ago to ask what things looked like. He and his friend were at Smith Lake Park and they could see it from there. He's on his way home.
 
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