Severe WX April 4th-6th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[buckeye05]

Anyone else feel a little weird about the EF3 rating in Allendale? It looks like it was based on some mobile homes that were destroyed, but the damage doesn't look particularly exceptional. Usually, mobile home damage caps out around high-end EF2 unless context clearly supports a stronger event (well tied down, little debris left, metal frame twisted or mangled, debarking nearby, ect). The Allendale damage looks pretty average, and I'm not sure what sets this above EF2.

 

[Equus]

I'm used to seeing mobile home damage max out at 110-115, the slider technically allows low EF3 for absolute upper bound but I'm not sure what would make that especially upper bound. Unless there's something contextual not being shown, I'd expect that to be low end EF2 since the frame isn't mangled. I'm glad to see ratings not get stuck at the lower bound for all the 4/5 tornadoes for once but some do appear a bit generous lol

 

[eric11]

I'm used to seeing mobile home damage max out at 110-115, the slider technically allows low EF3 for absolute upper bound but I'm not sure what would make that especially upper bound. Unless there's something contextual not being shown, I'd expect that to be low end EF2 since the frame isn't mangled. I'm glad to see ratings not get stuck at the lower bound for all the 4/5 tornadoes for once but some do appear a bit generous lol

Maybe a little bit too early to make that statement cuz Pembroke still holds 165mph+.But I'm not surprised if it ends up at 170mph.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Anyone else feel a little weird about the EF3 rating in Allendale? It looks like it was based on some mobile homes that were destroyed, but the damage doesn't look particularly exceptional. Usually, mobile home damage caps out around high-end EF2 unless context clearly supports a stronger event (well tied down, little debris left, metal frame twisted or mangled, debarking nearby, ect). The Allendale damage looks pretty average, and I'm not sure what sets this above EF2.

It looks like EF2 tornado damage with with a windspeed of 125 mph on the EF-SCALE. EF3 does seem quite generous but I will not complain as it seems like a number of tornadoes have been lowballed throughout the years.

 

[Brice Wood]

Maybe a little bit too early to make that statement cuz Pembroke still holds 165mph+.But I'm not surprised if it ends up at 170mph.

They have been taking their time doing surveying this tornado, I’m glad they’re doing this.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Has anyone located the justification for EF3 in Allendale yet?

 

[Equus]

In keeping with the multiple rating changes lately, BMX has upgraded the Wildwood Lane tornado in Elmore county to an unusual 134mph; lots of review going into the tornadoes in BMX territory, always good to see that much effort and detail put in

 

[UK_EF4]

In keeping with the multiple rating changes lately, BMX has upgraded the Wildwood Lane tornado in Elmore county to an unusual 134mph; lots of review going into the tornadoes in BMX territory, always good to see that much effort and detail put in

I have noticed a couple of unusual windspeed ratings recently; 134mph, 153mph. These may just be the actual windspeeds of the DIs (they most likely are, haven't checked) but is there a small chance some offices are beginning to use new DIs from this apparent updated system?

 

[South AL Wx]

In keeping with the multiple rating changes lately, BMX has upgraded the Wildwood Lane tornado in Elmore county to an unusual 134mph; lots of review going into the tornadoes in BMX territory, always good to see that much effort and detail put in

That tornado moved about 3 miles N/NW of our house. Too close for comfort! It sounds like an aerial survey helped with that rating. It was initially rated an EF-1 with 100 mph winds, then increased to an EF-2 with 125 mph winds, and finally the wind speed was raised to 134 mph.

One of the aerial images supplied from ALEA:

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

Pembroke now upgraded to an 185 mph EF4 on DAT. Second EF4 of the year also.

 

[andyhb]

Here’s the PNS statement on the Pembroke upgrade.

IEM :: PNS from NWS CHS

PNS issued by NWS CHS at 15 Apr 2022 14:35 UTC

mesonet.agron.iastate.edu

 

[OHWX97]

Pembroke now upgraded to an 185 mph EF4 on DAT.

Unsurprisingly, the 185mph rating was given to the slabbed homes on Park Place.

 

[DetectiveWX]

And I think the 1st and most violent to strike the coastal area and the second violent S GA twister since 1953.

 

[warneagle]

And I think the 1st and most violent to strike the coastal area and the second violent S GA twister since 1953.

There was an EF4 in McIntosh County on 11 May 2008, so it's the third in south Georgia (along with the aforementioned 30 April 1953 F4 that hit Warner Robins) and the second to hit the coastal region.

 

[OHWX97]

Another home on Park Place given a high-end EF4 rating.


Very impressive damage in the Hendrix Park area. Rated EF3.

 

[buckeye05]

I had a feeling they’d make the right call, and I’m glad they did. This is why its a good idea to wait until the rating is being finalized before going into criticism mode. There were hints all along that they wouldn’t keep it at EF3.

 

[UK_EF4]

I think this is a good example of context being used to 'downgrade'. Well built houses slabbed, some with no debris on foundation, however not massively extreme contextual damage which would suggest higher. I think this is a very good survey, and should be the new standard of surveying for as many offices as possible imo.

 

[buckeye05]

I think this is a good example of context being used to 'downgrade'. Well built houses slabbed, some with no debris on foundation, however not massively extreme contextual damage which would suggest higher. I think this is a very good survey, and should be the new standard of surveying for as many offices as possible imo.

Yup. This is how it should be done. It’s obvious that they were very objective and thorough with their analysis.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Pembroke now upgraded to an 185 mph EF4 on DAT. Second EF4 of the year also.

That is what I thought mid to high-end EF4.

 

[TH2002]

Pembroke now upgraded to an 185 mph EF4 on DAT. Second EF4 of the year also.

I've seen some people say they should have gone EF5 but since I haven't seen any solid contextual evidence of EF5 level winds such as total debarking of large trees or significant ground scouring, mid to high EF4 is probably the right call. Probably very similar in intensity to the 2008 Darien, GA EF4 tbh

I still stick to my previous point about the endless abuse of the lower bound value and "preliminary" ratings by some WFO's (*cough cough* Fort Worth and Austin) but it's good to know that some still have their head on straight, Arabi being another example of a thorough and properly executed survey.