Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

[Lake Martin EF4]

Started this as although the SPC has "PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" the Euro is showing what seems to be a very intense bout of severe weather on this date.

 

[JPWX]

00z Euro. Yep that 983mb low pressure would certainly bring a threat combined with widespread dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s.

 

[atrainguy]

If this verifies, where will this event be taking place? I'm still not great at reading these maps and translating them to the actual storm locations.

 

[Penitentes]

This morning's SPC extended morning outlook has the clues. Emphasis mine.

...Days 7-8/Mon-Tue...

Severe potential could once again increase early next week across
parts of the Arklatex into the Mid/Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity.
Another large-scale upper trough is expected to develop eastward
across the western U.S. on Monday before moving into the central
U.S. on Tuesday. However, guidance is vastly different in the timing
of this system and how far north or south the trough will be
located. While severe potential will likely accompany this system
and probabilities will likely be needed in later outlooks,
confidence in where the greatest threat will occur is low at this
time.

 

[JBishopwx]

D7 CIPS

 

[Timhsv]

Just Wow if it confirms

 

[Clancy]

Hoo boy.

 

[andyhb]

12z GEFS is pretty incredible for this timeframe. There is a very high ceiling on this period if we get troughs ejecting coherently.

 

[Clancy]

CSU-MLP already showing probs for D7-8.

 

[Timhsv]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

12z GEFS is pretty incredible for this timeframe. There is a very high ceiling on this period if we get troughs ejecting coherently.

Appreciate having Andy's input more often here and on American WX but am officially putting up the @Fred Gossage bat signal.

 

[The Nino]

Appreciate having Andy's input more often here and on American WX but am officially putting up the @Fred Gossage bat signal.

where is ole Fred? I haven't seen him around here in quite a while

 

[JBishopwx]

where is ole Fred? I haven't seen him around here in quite a while

They have been busy getting ready moved to the new studios for Tennessee Valley Weather.

 

[Timhsv]

This is really impressive this far out

This

 

[cincywx]

This is really impressive this far out

This

wow!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The new EURO has a less favorable trough ejection.

The consistency is not there yet for the more favorable ejection. However, should it occur there does not appear to be a shortage of impressive instability.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like we are having more Significant severe events now that we are moving into April. Doesn't bode well for not having deadly storms again.

Hopefully April plays around like most of the other events that busted.

 

[The Nino]

This is really impressive this far out

This

 

[ColdFront]

The new EURO has a less favorable trough ejection.

The consistency is not there yet for the more favorable ejection. However, should it occur there does not appear to be a shortage of impressive instability.

let the drinking begin

 

[ColdFront]

Appreciate having Andy's input more often here and on American WX but am officially putting up the @Fred Gossage bat signal.

@Richardjacks as well