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Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

Schoeppeya said:
At least to this point the OWS cells seem to be struggling to fully mature.
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The only possible reason why, at least I can see, is the extremely deep moisture impinging on the storms' abilities to consolidate their updrafts effectively. The sounding near Little Rock posted earlier in the thread just before initiation in Texas showed a 70+ F dewpoint that extended up well past 700 millibars. Unfortunately, these storms to the west of the OWS look like they have established themselves well, however.
 
I do wonder -- if the OWS cells are truly struggling from some strange fly in the ointment, will these cells run into the same issues and begin to weaken? I suppose we can only hope. The fact that they've already established themselves and they aren't well into the main risk area yet is really spooky. Considering the absolute insane parameters out there, I wouldn't be surprised to see them produce more than one violent tornado if they maintain themselves well. At this point, I feel like the possibility of them weakening is very low.
 
Not to distract from what's currently going on, but 18Z HRRR looks very concerning for AL/GA Sunday afternoon, depicting a mixed-mode event. Instability will be sufficient and so will kinematics. If the presentation remains consistent, it would definitely increase my level of concern for a more substantial tornado risk across Alabama and Georgia.
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slenker said:
I do wonder -- if the OWS cells are truly struggling from some strange fly in the ointment, will these cells run into the same issues and begin to weaken? I suppose we can only hope. The fact that they've already established themselves and they aren't well into the main risk area yet is really spooky. Considering the absolute insane parameters out there, I wouldn't be surprised to see them produce more than one violent tornado if they maintain themselves well. At this point, I feel like the possibility of them weakening is very low.
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There is no “strange fly in the ointment” here.

The OWS has a very dry mid level inversion and weak forcing. Cams have been on off about OWS initiation as well.
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I WOULD say the subpar LLLR in central Arkansas are hampering the maturing cells there. But it doesn't seem to bother the TX cells too much *shrug*

Let It Go Idk GIF


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ColdFront said:
On Arkansas: My bet is you’ll get additional storms go up as the line encroaches eastward, and any cells already mature once they are in proximity to that line may produce.
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The overall storm motion vector is slow towards the east.

Any supercells that form just ahead of the line will not be immediately absorbed like we usually see happen.

Obviously that’s assuming they form in the first place.
 
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