Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[wx_guy]

Okay so 18z GFS has started coming out on NOMADS (probably not on sites you look at, because it literally just came out from NOAA), so I'm gonna run a 6-hour forecast just for tonight with my model. Hopefully won't take long.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hawkins tornado is really impressive, a strong tornado maybe occuring, it's already confirmed with a debris signature.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Brad Arnold looks to be in good position to intercept that Hawkins/Holly Lake Ranch storm

 

[UncleJuJu98]

CC debris signature just got deeper on that tornado. A PDS probably should be issued

 

[TornadoFan]

Yeesh.

 

[SmokeEater]

Bunch of mobile homes just got hit south of Holly Lake Ranch, TX.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Ryan hall is about to possibly get this tornado on stream. Brad arnold is about 10 minutes away.

 

[jiharris0220]

Thought I should show this real quick.

 

[wx_guy]

New SVR actually looking better than Hot Springs cell.

 

[Maxis_s]

I think this mesocyclone has a developing strong tornado just to the west of the current tornado, which is probably a weaker and more erratic one which has the CC drop right now.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

TDS up to 6,900' north of Hawkins.

 

[Clancy]

Wow. A lot of small communities in there, including what looks to be mobile homes.

 

[Kds86z]

The fact that Arkansas storms will be maturing at/into evening has me worried..

 

[Schoeppeya]

At least to this point the OWS cells seem to be struggling to fully mature.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's a very very strong couplet. That could produce a wedge if it translates to the ground. I hope Brad arnold is able to intercept this, he's near gilmer texas

 

[CheeselandSkies]

TX/SE OK cells definitely have a more easterly component of motion than the central AR cells at the moment.

 

[Maxis_s]

Strong tornado likely imminent on the west side of that mesocyclone. PDS just got issued for it too.

 

[jiharris0220]

That's a very very strong couplet. That could produce a wedge if it translates to the ground. I hope Brad arnold is able to intercept this, he's near gilmer texas View attachment 39128

The tornado is already on the ground.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Brad arnold is in the path of the oncoming tornado.

PDS warning now

 

[Clancy]

TORP now.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
446 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

TXC063-315-343-449-459-499-042230-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0061.000000T0000Z-250404T2230Z/
Marion TX-Wood TX-Upshur TX-Morris TX-Titus TX-Camp TX-
446 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
MARION...SOUTHEASTERN WOOD...UPSHUR...SOUTHERN MORRIS...SOUTHEASTERN
TITUS AND CAMP COUNTIES...

At 446 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Rosewood, or 10 miles west of Gilmer, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Rosewood around 450 PM CDT.
Cason around 520 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Roeder, Rocky Mound, Harvard, Lafayette, Perryville, Center Point,
Holly Springs, Bettie, Midway, and Grice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 9538 3316 9494 3294 9465 3288 9466
3288 9461 3256 9514 3257 9515 3254 9517
3255 9518 3254 9519 3257 9521 3256 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 223DEG 38KT 3275 9512

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN