Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[SmokeEater]

Every statement coming out of LZK sounds more ominous. Low level shear is about as good as it gets for tornadoes, and this.

The warm front is quickly deforming from a west-east orientation to a southwest to northeast orientation, more or less aligned with the storm motion. This could enhance the low-level environment for tornadoes for storms that ride along in close proximity to the warm front today.

 

[Kds86z]

@AJS SPC has expanded tornado hatch due to greater certainty down there..

 

[wx_guy]

StormNet's updated 3 hour risk shows > 50% odds in the next 3 hours:

 

[Schoeppeya]

Sig Tor values are already very high for the southern half of arkansas

 

[Aaron Rider]

Not sure which thread is appropriate for this, but here's some good news about the NOAA cuts.

From the appropriations chairman, no less...

 

[Kds86z]

From the appropriations chairman, no less...

Ugh thank God

 

[TornadoFan]

Is the warm front still moving rapidly to the north?

 

[Clancy]

Is the warm front still moving rapidly to the north?

Yep.

 

[TornadoFan]

Yep.
View attachment 39038

 

[Ozonelayer]

Was the warm front forecasted to blast north this fast?

 

[ColdFront]

Was the warm front forecasted to blast north this fast?

Yes it was. It was basically just stalled and sitting down there

 

[Parker Copeland]

Yes it was. It was basically just stalled and sitting down there

Oh well thats fantastic, so moisture should not be an issue today?

 

[ColdFront]

Oh well thats fantastic, so moisture should not be an issue today?

lol no.. not even close. It wouldn’t shock me to see mid-70s dews in parts of the OWS. Moisture is in plenty of supply. You may actually run into an issue where the moist layer is too deep, like @CheeselandSkies was discussing.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Oh well thats fantastic, so moisture should not be an issue today?

I really don't think so. Might be too much moisture from what I've seen.

 

[Schoeppeya]

Looks like some storms are trying to initiate in the warm sector in both the memphis area and in far NE TX

 

[Kds86z]

 

[NWTNWX]

Im in far NW Tennessee and the DP is already 72.

 

[Parker Copeland]

And the WOFS has began its first run and it wants a supercell bash in AR

 

[Parker Copeland]

Ouch, that is just ouch. Today could def be an issue and a half if failmodes don't show, This was in Eastern/North Eastern Arkansas, forgot to add that

 

[Keldeo]

WF just past me in Searcy and now have clear sky... not good