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Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

UncleJuJu98 said:
I wouldn't be surprised if tommorow ends up being potentially out third high risk of the year.
Click to expand...
I'm putting it off the table. 500mb jet translation speed is very slow, I believe under 20 knots unless Andrew Shearer's math is wrong. That's a highly essential component to the RIV (Risk Impact Value) formula, so unless everything else is incredible to make up for it, I don't know if we'll see it.
In case you haven't read on the RIV/OMEGA Project by Broyles, you should.
 
So I have the look at Friday in now. I'll probably run a new model later, but here's the take from my model on Friday's threat. Remember it's 2km resolution, so it has 125% more grid cells than the HRRR.


The threat looks minimal (if my model verifies) until around 5 PM CDT. The threat algorithm isn't picking up much, but the supercells popping off look gnarly.


1743720579187.png

Okay, here we go *sadface* By 6 PM, those supercells from the 5 PM frame are tornadic quite possibly, with some very extreme parameters involved.

1743720662500.png



At 7 PM, that same cell that was High at 6 PM is High again, and all hell is breaking lose officially. That cell is explicitly being forecast to be high-end tornadic, with UH approaching 600.

1743720758622.png


At 8 PM. Geez, do I even need to say anything? Arkansas is getting demolished.

1743720861928.png


Thankfully, after 9PM or so, it dies down very quickly overnight. But for a few hours, it's very intense. I'd say North-Central and North-East Arkansas needs to prepare for a major situation tomorrow evening. Let's see what the 0z models, including the HRRR have to say.
 
wx_guy said:
So I have the look at Friday in now. I'll probably run a new model later, but here's the take from my model on Friday's threat. Remember it's 2km resolution, so it has 125% more grid cells than the HRRR.


The threat looks minimal (if my model verifies) until around 5 PM CDT. The threat algorithm isn't picking up much, but the supercells popping off look gnarly.


View attachment 38941

Okay, here we go *sadface* By 6 PM, those supercells from the 5 PM frame are tornadic quite possibly, with some very extreme parameters involved.

View attachment 38942



At 7 PM, that same cell that was High at 6 PM is High again, and all hell is breaking lose officially. That cell is explicitly being forecast to be high-end tornadic, with UH approaching 600.

View attachment 38943


At 8 PM. Geez, do I even need to say anything? Arkansas is getting demolished.

View attachment 38944


Thankfully, after 9PM or so, it dies down very quickly overnight. But for a few hours, it's very intense. I'd say North-Central and North-East Arkansas needs to prepare for a major situation tomorrow evening. Let's see what the 0z models, including the HRRR have to say.
Click to expand...
Dang @wx_guy thank you though man!
 
wx_guy said:
So I have the look at Friday in now. I'll probably run a new model later, but here's the take from my model on Friday's threat. Remember it's 2km resolution, so it has 125% more grid cells than the HRRR.


The threat looks minimal (if my model verifies) until around 5 PM CDT. The threat algorithm isn't picking up much, but the supercells popping off look gnarly.


View attachment 38941

Okay, here we go *sadface* By 6 PM, those supercells from the 5 PM frame are tornadic quite possibly, with some very extreme parameters involved.

View attachment 38942



At 7 PM, that same cell that was High at 6 PM is High again, and all hell is breaking lose officially. That cell is explicitly being forecast to be high-end tornadic, with UH approaching 600.

View attachment 38943


At 8 PM. Geez, do I even need to say anything? Arkansas is getting demolished.

View attachment 38944


Thankfully, after 9PM or so, it dies down very quickly overnight. But for a few hours, it's very intense. I'd say North-Central and North-East Arkansas needs to prepare for a major situation tomorrow evening. Let's see what the 0z models, including the HRRR have to say.
Click to expand...
Even with the warm front to the south they still produce tornadoes? I'm a bit skeptical honestly. We'll have to see though.
 
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