Severe WX April 29-May 2nd, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[SouthFLwx]

Sorry to disrupt the current convo, but there is a small moderate risk area with 15# tor probs for the event today now.

 

[A Guy]

I wish more people would understand that as we spend too much time and energy arguing semantics when we should be spending that time and energy on achieving a greater understanding of tornadoes so we can better deal with them.

Phil, that is close to what I and some others here are getting at. To me the current application of the EF scale and DoD system has been great at understanding the intricacies and shortcomings of American home construction, but less good at advancing the understanding of tornadoes.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[xJownage]

I'm expecting pretty quick upscale growth today. There's a 1-2 hour window of dryline before the cold front crashes through and bows it all out. QLCS tors are a risk, but otherwise, I'm not expecting a big event for chasers.

 

[JBishopwx]

Also, a D4 enhanced/30% for parts of Mississippi on Thursday. Not sure if they want to create a new thread or extend this one.

 

[tornado examiner]

I guess NWS Wichita is now calling QRT? there're some damage points remain as EF3+ on DAT.Plus there're nearly 966 structures damaged or destroyed in Andover alone, it may take a long long time to evaluate all these damage points.
btw it seems that calling QRT has now become a growing trend when it comes to EF4/EF4+ tornado.
here's a closer look of some anchoring on DAT
View attachment 13747View attachment 13748View attachment 13749View attachment 13750

that definitely is some rather impressive and study anchoring no doubt. worthy of an EF4 rating at least imo...i saw video of lamp posts embedded into the parking lot at the ymca.

 

[MichelleH]

Also, a D4 enhanced/30% for parts of Mississippi on Thursday. Not sure if they want to create a new thread or extend this one.

Pretty sure there's already a thread for that.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Watch out in the eastern marginal risk area today.

 

[pohnpei]

It then asks more questions - how accurately does a 3-second wind gust characterise damage causing wind? If there is a 200 mph wind for 2 seconds and zero for 1 will the resultant damage be closer to high-end EF-2 (133 mph 3-sec average) or high end EF-4 (200 mph max)? Surely there must be a paper on this somewhere, it's a fundamental issue that must have been considered at some point.

In that Smithville video in the April 27 thread the video maker remarked on the very narrow (10-15 m wide) core, noting that the damage may have been created in as little time as a second. He presumably assumed the core is roughly circular (I can think of reasons it may not be). Something that provides food for thought is that Fujita original based the F scale on wind run rather than wind speed - the numbers are similar but the conception different.

This is exactly the point I hesitate about the scale. There were so many security camera videos proved that just a host of tornados don't even take 3 seconds to pass through one place (Literally those fast moving narrow tornados) and they caused damage. We don't really need 3 seconds to cause damage. For those wedge tornados, many of them had a narrow core and Extremeplanet said this in his articles(like Joplin) a lot.
So this is similar to using 12h sustained winds for Hurricanes. It may sounds ridiculous in the first place but you would found they are basically same types of definition actually.
IMHO, biggest pressure deficit is a much better way to define the intensity of tornados than winds.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Good move with the moderate risk upgrade.

 

[tornado examiner]

i still dont understand universal time zone things...21z and all that...i dont know how it would begin to translate to my time

 

[Taylor Campbell]

i still dont understand universal time zone things...21z and all that...i dont know how it would begin to translate to my time

Use this website for help.

READY Tools - Time Conversion Table

www.ready.noaa.gov

 

[Sawmaster]

i still dont understand universal time zone things...21z and all that...i dont know how it would begin to translate to my time

With Windows you can have more than one 'clock' set up on the lower right of the taskbar. I set a second clock to display UTC which makes the translation easier.

Phil

 

[Brice Wood]

Also, a D4 enhanced/30% for parts of Mississippi on Thursday. Not sure if they want to create a new thread or extend this one.

Severe WX - May 4th-May 6th, 2022 Threat

Hyper active severe weather period continues for May.

talkweather.com

This is for the next severe weather event that you mentioned above

 

[tornado examiner]

i think with the black creek tornado they were thinking. yes this is obviously EF4 damage but how far into the EF4 rating should we go?

with Andover they're thinking. yes this is at least high end EF3...but should we make an upgrade to EF4?

 

[tornado examiner]

well it appears they may be downgrading the andover tornado......to....155 mph? that...better be a mistake. cause just no...

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

Looks like the EF3+ tag was removed so it’s now just EF3. Some of the EF3 165 DIs were downgraded to 155 mph.

 

[OHWX97]

I'm expecting pretty quick upscale growth today. There's a 1-2 hour window of dryline before the cold front crashes through and bows it all out. QLCS tors are a risk, but otherwise, I'm not expecting a big event for chasers.

I agree. Most, if not all the mesoscale models are on board with the idea of rapid upscale growth today. Even during that small window, any supercells will likely be high-precipitation, and possibly quite messy. Still likely going to see a lot of nasty severe storms today, but hopefully this all will limit the threat for significant tornadoes.

 

[tornado examiner]

uuuuugggghhhhhhhhhhh...theres still 165mph di's too lmao.

 

[xJownage]

I agree. Most, if not all the mesoscale models are on board with the idea of rapid upscale growth today. Even during that small window, any supercells will likely be high-precipitation, and possibly quite messy. Still likely going to see a lot of nasty severe storms today, but hopefully this all will limit the threat for significant tornadoes.

It's not even worth the chase honestly. SPC issued 15% which means there's going to be a ton of convergence, and given the location of initiation there's going to be basically only one target. Chaser convergence is going to be awful.

Closer to the SFC low in S KS actually might be a better play. Quite a bit of risk you get elevated cells only, but if you get something SB the mode will probably be better with less chaser convergence.

The DL isn't going to initiate. If the DL would initiate it'd be a good chase day. It seems like the old days of plains dryline setups are just gone for now.