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Severe WX April 25-27, 2023 (Southern States)

The storms near and south of Wichita Falls look like they're building south, they might impact northern DFW in a few hours at that rate. Might temper the threat for areas north of Dallas - Fort Worth later on, but still unsure.
We are getting some spotty passing showers right now as well, so hoping the combination of these two things might help lower the threat and keep the air a bit more stable. I gotta make it out to a doc appointment soon...hopefully I can be in and out before anything crazy to put my car back in the garage!
 
We still have a few hours until the main event, but it's been nonstop rain in DFW since practically the middle of the night. Lots of flooding going on.



South of I-20 has been much more spotty with showers. HRRR runs keep showing the bulk of the activity in this area, including one stubborn cell on a few of the recent runs that seems to ride what it might be interpreting as the front near Burleson, Mansfield, Cedar Hill, and Lancaster.

Screen Shot 2023-04-26 at 1.18.19 PM.pngScreen Shot 2023-04-26 at 1.18.53 PM.png
16z vs 13z
 


Latest update trims the risk from the immediate DFW Metro and focuses the higher probabilities on the Waco/Killeen/Ft.Hood area.
 
If you look closely at the Ft Hood radar, you can see where the Southern winds are running into strong westerly winds just north of here. I know it's supposed to be more volatile to our north around Dallas, but I think this might be a spawning area for storms. That much turn in the atmosphere cannot be a good
 
Florida update: Might see some hail from the storm to my northwest near Sanford. Some of the videos coming out of Melbourne are wild, looks like heavy snow in people’s yards from the accumulating hail.
 
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