Severe WX April 25-27, 2023 (Southern States)

[JPWX]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/ here's another good link.

 

[JPWX]

And here's one more. https://www.weather.gov/jan/statewidegraphics

 

[JBishopwx]

CIPS/CSU/SPC Comparison: https://www.weather.gov/lsx/svrcomp

 

[atrainguy]

Not sure if this should go here or the 2023 thread, but FWIW...

 

[TH2002]

View attachment 20123

Check out these supercells firing off in Mississippi Thursday evening on the 12z NAM 3km

Virtually the same area as Rolling Fork... of course, there's also the possibility that cells could intensify right in the North Mississippi Radar Hole™. Either way...

 

[ColdFront]

For the ABC 33/40 area, Spann doesn’t see a tornado threat materializing at all Thursday.
Which is good, couldn’t happen on a better day.

Showers Tomorrow; A Few Strong Storms Thursday : The Alabama Weather Blog

www.alabamawx.com

 

[MichelleH]

For the ABC 33/40 area, Spann doesn’t see a tornado threat materializing at all Thursday.
Which is good, couldn’t happen on a better day.

Showers Tomorrow; A Few Strong Storms Thursday : The Alabama Weather Blog

www.alabamawx.com

He also always says "when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected."

 

[Austin Dawg]

They're calling for the possibility of some severe weather here tomorrow and I'm pretty sure if we have any... It will be for hail. Hail storms in Central Texas are no joke. I have seen some hail storms around Austin and San Antonio that are very destructive.

 

[rushdude]

Dan Henry on Fox 4 predicting isolated tornado threat for late tomorrow afternoon into the evening.
Future radar on there showing that the line starts to come together around 6 PM CST.

 

[TornadoFan]

TOG in Dickens, TX.

 

[JBishopwx]

.THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds, very large hail, and a few
tornadoes are expected over much of northern Texas Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered severe storms producing
very large hail and damaging winds may also occur in the Florida
Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low, seen on water-vapor imagery this morning
across southwest Colorado will shift southeast through the day
today. A 50 knot mid-level jet west of this low will round the base
of the trough during the morning hours and emerge over the southern
Plains this afternoon, as the initially positively tilted wave
becomes more neutrally tilted.

A complicated surface pattern will be in place this afternoon. A
weak surface low seen in surface observations near the TX/NM border
this morning, will slowly drift east through the day. Most guidance
shows the surface low bifurcate as the primary surface low moves
south toward Mexico and a small portion travels east along the warm
front during the evening. This warm front is expected to be
somewhere near the Red River this afternoon/evening with a
sharpening dryline extending south across central Texas.

...Central Texas and Vicinity...
A forward-propagating MCS is expected to develop in the Texas
Panhandle early this morning and move east-southeast through the
morning hours. South of this MCS, significant surface heating is
expected, with very strong instability (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
developing by mid afternoon. Broad ascent ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough, combined with this surface heating, should result
in minimal inhibition by 19-20Z. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the dryline around this time, and should quickly
evolve into supercells given around 45 to 50 knots of effective
shear. Weak low-level shear, very strong instability, and persistent
increasing westerly flow between the LCL and EL will all support
very large to potentially giant hail, especially during the
afternoon period. During the afternoon, the tornado threat will
primarily be focused near the warm front or potentially a remnant
MCS outflow boundary from the previous night's convection where
greater low-level vorticity should be present.

However, during the evening period, especially 23-02Z, the low-level
jet will strengthen and hodographs will elongate. The tornado threat
should increase significantly during this period, with the potential
for a strong tornado or two. During this same period, significant
upscale growth is expected with one or more clusters developing and
likely becoming a forward-propagating MCS into east-central Texas.
During the transition from intense supercells to forward-propagating
linear segments, a significant (65+ knot) wind threat may
materialize.

...Florida...
An EML off the Mexican Plateau, observed on the 12Z BRO and CRP
RAOBs has traversed the Gulf of Mexico with the early evidence of
its arrival at the 00Z TBW RAOB. These steep lapse rates will set
the stage for a potentially significant severe-weather setup across
Florida today. The 00Z TBW RAOB shows a 500mb temperature of -11.5C
which is expected to cool to -15C by 12Z and to -13C at MFL. These
anomalously cool temperatures aloft will aid in significant
destabilization with MLCAPE forecast 2500 to 3000 J/kg by late
morning. This buoyancy, combined with 40 to 50 knots of effective
shear, will support splitting supercells capable or large to
potentially very large hail during the afternoon to early evening
hours.

 

[rushdude]

View attachment 20141
View attachment 20142

Well, crap. I'm in both 10% risk and hatched area.
Also, the local CBS station here (CBS11) puts the timeline at 4:40-ish PM and moving out of the Metroplex around 7 or so.

I know I'll be flipping on the Weather Channel in the morning to see what the TOR:CON values and then start preparing early

 

[JBishopwx]

Thursday:

 

[CheeselandSkies]

First thing I did when I saw the 10 hatch was check the signature line to see if it was Broyles (it's not!).

 

[Gail]

I like these state specific graphics a lot too

Index of /public/state/images

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Second Enhanced zone for 30% hatched hail added...over the FL peninsula. That's something you don't see too often.

 

[JPWX]

Second Enhanced zone for 30% hatched hail added...over the FL peninsula. That's something you don't see too often.

Was thinking that same thing when I saw it

 

[Bevo]

Biggest question with the Texas mode is: where will the warm front end up setting up...

 

[WhirlingWx]

Biggest question with the Texas mode is: where will the warm front end up setting up...

Definitely agree. Even north of the warm front, however, there could be big hail. I think DFW is in a pretty tough spot today, whether it be tornadoes or hail.

Consider me also impressed by the Florida hail risk. Could see a billion dollar hailstorm (or multiple) somewhere in the country today.

 

[Bevo]

One of the local mets is thinking south DFW could see the strongest storms (and the latest HRRR run would support this), but honestly the entire metro should be watching. 2-3"+ hail is no joke, and if models are to be believed, the conveyor belt of storms is going to cause some big flooding issues on our flood-prone streets.
But again...today is one of those days where all the small unpredictable mesoscale details will make a big difference.