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Severe WX April 19-22nd, 2023

This one could turn into a relatively large threat area and potentially significant for some areas. Seems like the low pressure isn't in best of positions though lol upper level low and surface low aren't vertically stacked not sure how detrimental that'll be but something worth noting I think (if that's even a bad thing lol)
 
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I feel like we reached our zenith for severe weather events for the first half (or most probable all) of 2023 back on 3/31.


However, it will be interesting to see how this one evolves. Looks like the CIPS guidance has this in the vicinity of the 12/10/2021 outbreak. The Euro MUCAPE for Friday has decent cape in that area, with the higher amounts centered south and south west.

A ton of uncertainty on this one.
 
ColdFront said:
I feel like we reached our zenith for severe weather events for the first half (or most probable all) of 2023 back on 3/31.


However, it will be interesting to see how this one evolves. Looks like the CIPS guidance has this in the vicinity of the 12/10/2021 outbreak. The Euro MUCAPE for Friday has decent cape in that area, with the higher amounts centered south and south west.

A ton of uncertainty on this one.
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It’s. Still early
 
CIPS 1+ and 5+ analogs for the time frame.
PRALLC01_gefsF168.pngPRALLC05_gefsF168 (1).png
 
Well so much for the eastern trough expectation on cutting off the severe weather risks mid-month.... LOL!
 
Austin Dawg said:
It would be just like mother nature to crank severe weather back up the end of this month and keep it going in May. I already had a suspicion that things would be busy in the traditional Tornado Ally in May.
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I think the southeast severe threat (4/22) will probably drop off considerably after this threat. Starting to get into the usual timeframe of pretty meager shear and higher instability unless you get a very deep low that scoots through.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I think the southeast severe threat (4/22) will probably drop off considerably after this threat. Starting to get into the usual timeframe of pretty meager shear and higher instability unless you get a very deep low that scoots through.
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I like to give it mid May before I call it off for my area midsouth … than after that it’s wait till fall severe wx time
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
I like to give it mid May before I call it off for my area midsouth … than after that it’s wait till fall severe wx time
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Yeah. In fact, North MS was in a High Risk of severe weather on May 1st, 2010 when Nashville got flooded. Then the Mid-South was in a Moderate to High Risk on May 25th, 2011.
 
I see that another forecaster at the Storm Prediction Center has put out a low confidence Day 4+ severe weather risk area.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
I see that another forecaster at the Storm Prediction Center has put out a low confidence Day 4+ severe weather risk area.
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I think severe weather will occur in that region, especially AR by the end of this week, but that threat centered on Thursday versus Friday is questionable.
 
Wasn't expected anything too wild Wednesday but in walks Broyles with a large D3 hatched area already...
 
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