Severe WX April 19-22nd, 2023

[Lake Martin EF4]

As requested by @ashtonlemleywx. Another decent outbreak shot here.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Lmao of course the main threat looks like it'll be over my area

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This one could turn into a relatively large threat area and potentially significant for some areas. Seems like the low pressure isn't in best of positions though lol upper level low and surface low aren't vertically stacked not sure how detrimental that'll be but something worth noting I think (if that's even a bad thing lol)

 

[ColdFront]

I feel like we reached our zenith for severe weather events for the first half (or most probable all) of 2023 back on 3/31.


However, it will be interesting to see how this one evolves. Looks like the CIPS guidance has this in the vicinity of the 12/10/2021 outbreak. The Euro MUCAPE for Friday has decent cape in that area, with the higher amounts centered south and south west.

A ton of uncertainty on this one.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I feel like we reached our zenith for severe weather events for the first half (or most probable all) of 2023 back on 3/31.


However, it will be interesting to see how this one evolves. Looks like the CIPS guidance has this in the vicinity of the 12/10/2021 outbreak. The Euro MUCAPE for Friday has decent cape in that area, with the higher amounts centered south and south west.

A ton of uncertainty on this one.

It’s. Still early

 

[Clancy]

CIPS 1+ and 5+ analogs for the time frame.

 

[ColdFront]

It’s. Still early

Well yeah, thus the “interesting to see how this one will evolve”

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

Well so much for the eastern trough expectation on cutting off the severe weather risks mid-month.... LOL!

 

[Austin Dawg]

It would be just like mother nature to crank severe weather back up the end of this month and keep it going in May. I already had a suspicion that things would be busy in the traditional Tornado Ally in May.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

It’s early to make certain call for
Now , but if the winds can become little more veered . Could be a decent chase day coming

 

[UncleJuJu98]

It would be just like mother nature to crank severe weather back up the end of this month and keep it going in May. I already had a suspicion that things would be busy in the traditional Tornado Ally in May.

I think the southeast severe threat (4/22) will probably drop off considerably after this threat. Starting to get into the usual timeframe of pretty meager shear and higher instability unless you get a very deep low that scoots through.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I think the southeast severe threat (4/22) will probably drop off considerably after this threat. Starting to get into the usual timeframe of pretty meager shear and higher instability unless you get a very deep low that scoots through.

I like to give it mid May before I call it off for my area midsouth … than after that it’s wait till fall severe wx time

 

[JPWX]

I like to give it mid May before I call it off for my area midsouth … than after that it’s wait till fall severe wx time

Yeah. In fact, North MS was in a High Risk of severe weather on May 1st, 2010 when Nashville got flooded. Then the Mid-South was in a Moderate to High Risk on May 25th, 2011.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I see that another forecaster at the Storm Prediction Center has put out a low confidence Day 4+ severe weather risk area.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I see that another forecaster at the Storm Prediction Center has put out a low confidence Day 4+ severe weather risk area.

I think severe weather will occur in that region, especially AR by the end of this week, but that threat centered on Thursday versus Friday is questionable.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There's also a more significant look to the tornado side on the GFS solution.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Wasn't expected anything too wild Wednesday but in walks Broyles with a large D3 hatched area already...

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

@Lake Martin EF4 can you update the thread title to include the 19th?

 

[JBishopwx]