Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

[xJownage]

Yeah, temps are still way too cool still here in Central AL. For us to see much of anything we're going to have to really start seeing the sun break through and we've only got about 4 or 5 hours of good daylight left for that to happen and temps to jump up.

It's really as soon as the warm front gets that far north. The airmass is already moving in. That warm front looks to continue moving to the north and possibly get you into the upper 70s/low 80s. Regardless of if you get sunlight or not, the heating could still very well come in due to the heavy flow coming out of the gulf.

 

[Equus]

MCS seems to be trying to break up into a more discrete cluster. Interesting to see if that trend continues

 

[Tyler Penland]

Please ignore the trollers guys. Giving them attention just attracts more.

 

[brianc33710]

*sigh* You need to read more and post less.

Yeah. The warm front isn't that far away. While T-town is still 69, the DP is 64. At 1, they were 69/60. So the WF is marching Nward!

 

[Evan]

Yeah, temps are still way too cool still here in Central AL. For us to see much of anything we're going to have to really start seeing the sun break through and we've only got about 4 or 5 hours of good daylight left for that to happen and temps to jump up.

Not trying to be rude, but you don't seem to understand the concept of a warm front or how they work. You've got 70 dewpoints as far north as Montgomery already. The warm front is progressing as expected.

Please explain why we need 4-5 hours for temperatures and dewpoints to rise when there is a warm front surging through Central Alabama. This setup has never been reliant on sunlight to increase surface temps and instability.

 

[Jonathan Burleson]

It's really as soon as the warm front gets that far north. The airmass is already moving in. That warm front looks to continue moving to the north and possibly get you into the upper 70s/low 80s. Regardless of if you get sunlight or not, the heating could still very well come in due to the heavy flow coming out of the gulf.

I respectfully, but totally and completely disagree with what you just said. With this kind of dynamic forcing, we don't have to have sunshine. Furthermore, calling something a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency before it even happens? Really? Otherwise, the dewpoint is up to 60 in Winfield. That information is via the Winfield City Schools STEM system weather station. This is far from over. It hasn't even gotten started good yet.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
215 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020

MESOSCALE UPDATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AT A NEUTRAL TILT AND WAS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. BROAD FLAT RIDGING WAS PRESENT TO OUR EAST OVER
THE CAROLINAS.

THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH ARCING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURRING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE LOW 80S SOUTH WITH
DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH 50 KT WINDS NOW AS
LOW AS 925 MB PER THE 18Z SOUNDING. THE DYNAMICS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES MEASURED JUST OVER 60 KTS AND 0-1 KM
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES COMPUTED REMAINING AROUND 400
M2/S2.

THERMODYNAMICALLY, SURFACE DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE SPARCE NOW THAT THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER (EML) HAS STREAMED INTO THE AREA ALOFT. THIS IS
ALLOWING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY VALUES TO INCREASE. THIS WARM
AND DRY LAYER WILL HELP ACT AS A CAP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD THROUGH TIME.

THE RISK FOR TORNADOES, INCLUDING STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES,
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AS THE CAP ERODES WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS FALL
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE OVER THE
AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE FORCING ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AND A LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES AND THE
RISK FOR HAIL WILL BE PRESENT AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MESOSCALE UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE AND GATHER ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND INFORMATION.

 

[xJownage]

I respectfully, but totally and completely disagree with what you just said. With this kind of dynamic forcing, we don't have to have sunshine. Furthermore, calling something a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency before it even happens? Really? Otherwise, the dewpoint is up to 60 in Winfield. That information is via the Winfield City Schools STEM system weather station. This is far from over. It hasn't even gotten started good yet.

I think you may have quoted the wrong post...considering what I said agrees with literally everything you responded with.

 

[Kory]

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
215 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020

MESOSCALE UPDATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AT A NEUTRAL TILT AND WAS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. BROAD FLAT RIDGING WAS PRESENT TO OUR EAST OVER
THE CAROLINAS.

THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH ARCING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURRING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE LOW 80S SOUTH WITH
DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH 50 KT WINDS NOW AS
LOW AS 925 MB PER THE 18Z SOUNDING. THE DYNAMICS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES MEASURED JUST OVER 60 KTS AND 0-1 KM
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES COMPUTED REMAINING AROUND 400
M2/S2.

THERMODYNAMICALLY, SURFACE DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE SPARCE NOW THAT THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER (EML) HAS STREAMED INTO THE AREA ALOFT. THIS IS
ALLOWING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY VALUES TO INCREASE. THIS WARM
AND DRY LAYER WILL HELP ACT AS A CAP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD THROUGH TIME.

THE RISK FOR TORNADOES, INCLUDING STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES,
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AS THE CAP ERODES WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS FALL
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLE OVER THE
AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE FORCING ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AND A LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES AND THE
RISK FOR HAIL WILL BE PRESENT AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MESOSCALE UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE AND GATHER ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND INFORMATION.

Bolded the important part many of us have been saying til we are blue in the face.

 

[Jonathan Burleson]

I think you may have quoted the wrong post...considering what I said agrees with literally everything you responded with.

My apologies...I definitely quoted the wrong post.

 

[akt1985]

I noticed on the observations for central Alabama that the winds at Birmingham and Gadsden are out of the east ahead of the warm front while everyone else has south to southeast winds. This isn't a wedge trying to form?

 

[brianc33710]

Okay, with the warming, the sky has cleared in SW MS. Montgomery is now partly cloudy.

 

[brianc33710]

I noticed on the observations for central Alabama that the winds at Birmingham and Gadsden are out of the east ahead of the warm front while everyone else has south to southeast winds. This isn't a wedge trying to form?

But the winds in ATL are SE.

 

[South AL Wx]

Update on timing from BMX:

 

[NorthBamaWX]

Monroe La

 

[Jetstream]

Another rounds of showers just went through, temp still in the mid 60's and thankfully so far no sunshine .

 

[Mike S]

The off topic discussions and bickering stops now. Thanks.

 

[Kory]

Another rounds of showers just went through, temp still in the mid 60's and thankfully so far no sunshine .

The clearing line is just to our south (if you’re in Tuscaloosa). Low 80s in Meridian.

 

[Bevo]

Late to the discourse chatter, but the main thing to take to heart is that this is a substantial threat, we've seen the signs for several days now, and it should be treated as such until it's cleared out completely. There are differences as to smaller details (whens, wheres, to what extent, etc.) but this system has already done damage and changed lives back west. And it's nowhere close to being done.

Wondering if I should give my brother at Ft. Rucker a call...

 

[xJownage]

Another rounds of showers just went through, temp still in the mid 60's and thankfully so far no sunshine .

The sunshine won't matter, as soon as that warm front gets north of you (it's already close) the temps are going to skyrocket.