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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

Statistics show this is a , "Screw the models and the colorful maps". The Dynamics are obviously there for a severe weather outbreak. We need to see the "junk" that occurs overnight, morning, and early afternoon. At the end of the day if you see morning into afternoon Run. Models are meaningless right now imo. Old school meteorology is the route to take for tommorow.
 
brianc33710 said:
Got it! Demopolis is 49, but Bham is still just 39. There's a ton of advection needed by tomorrow afternoon for everything to come together. I don't think that it can happen, which would be a good thing.
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I just don't think that will be a problem. The gulf of Mexico has a lot to serve us tomorrow, the low level moisture will rush in like a tidal wave.
 
MSUKentucky said:
Statistics show this is a , "Screw the models and the colorful maps". The Dynamics are obviously there for a severe weather outbreak. We need to see the "junk" that occurs overnight, morning, and early afternoon. At the end of the day if you see morning into afternoon Run. Models are meaningless right now imo. Old school meteorology is the route to take for tommorow.
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If you see sun*
It didn't show my emoji
 
Yeesh 3z HRRR looks a lot more threatening than last hour's run. Gonna be a night of HRRR bouncing back and forth looks like
 
Richardjacks said:
I just don't think that will be a problem. The gulf of Mexico has a lot to serve us tomorrow, the low level moisture will rush in like a tidal wave.
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You would know better than me, as you have forecasted weather here for well over a decade. But leading up to 08 April 98 & 27 Apr 11 the weather was conducive for an outbreak well in advance.
 
If the trends on the 03z run hold yeah that's... not ideal for anyone. This has potential for significant tornadoes along the boundary to the north even if most of the warm sector stays capped.

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MSUKentucky said:
First hope everybody is doing great and safe and have a Happy Easter. I'm a meteorology buff and always read this forum. Some of the brightest folks are literally on this very forum.
This will be a very interesting system in my opinion. Could be extreme, could be a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, but I personally think again imo you will see a more northern trend in terms of the tornadic threats. I've noticed lately models have been too farth south with the main threats. Also I feel more towards the actual low you will such much more instability than what models are showing. In my opinion I feel like Mid Central Tennessee will be the hotspot.
In present tense right now it's a craps game what is going to unfold for tommorow. But from what I see in terms of the models, historical aspects, etc I feel that's what's going to play out.
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Mississippi State?
 
Watch the upstream region tonight, so far storms in Texas have been struggling a bit; if the MCS is not as widespread or strong as expected (or faster) that could spread the risk area north.

The line in Oklahoma is doing pretty well but honestly I'm losing faith in the CAMs handling everything perfectly with this event so radar and observations may tell the story far better through the overnight hours
 
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The storms in south/central Texas have not maintained themselves...but the line across east central Oklahoma is doing so. Not sure if that was suppose to be the mechanism for the MCS across the risk area early tomorrow.
 
southmdwatcher said:
The storms in south/central Texas have not maintained themselves...but the line across east central Oklahoma is doing so. Not sure if that was suppose to be the mechanism for the MCS across the risk area early tomorrow.
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The current run of the HRRR has seen two areas of storm development in the future with storms migrating from the Texas region. Storms moving NE from south to central Texas then proceeding into Louisiana and Arkansas. This has been forecasted for several days now. But I hadn't noticed Oklahoma until recently. Those storms cooked up nicely earlier this evening. The HRRR has Oklahoma sizzling a bit during the early hours of the day and then growing into a line later in the day is the complex forming in Oklahoma going almost due east into Arkansas and north then east Texas.

If you look at the HRRR in the Dew Points you can see exactly how the low (?) in Oklahoma starts interacting with the original dry line that was going to move W->E, but then it comes rapidly E-SE. All the moisture just gets vacuumed out eastward.
 
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gangstonc said:
Best to give your scientific reasoning. At this point, the models and climatology disagree with you.
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Agreed. Posting bold claims like this without any explanation besides "I just don't think so" is irresponsible and ill-informed. Yeah, storm mode could be sloppy, but anyone who knows even a little bit about Dixie severe events, know that a less-than favorable storm mode can still yield an outbreak of strong tornadoes. The potential is definitely there, and we don't know enough at this point to confidently say which direction things will go. Period. I'd love to hear some detailed scientific reasoning for this user's claim, but something tells me he probably doesn't have much else to say... :rolleyes:
 
Yeah, it's the HRRR, but the 04Z run is even more nasty looking than the last two. Whole line of intense supercells from the Shoals to near New Orleans.
 
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