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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

Extraordinarily impressive supercell. Far NE Mexico/TX border area has seen some monsters the last few days.
 
Richardjacks said:
hmmm ...anyone noticing the 800mb cap showing up south Alabama and back to the west in Louisiana in the morning on the hrrr??
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And the CAMS are starting to not hardly show any helicity tracks across much of Central/South Alabama? Trend? Just saying
 
Timhsv said:
And the CAMS are starting to not hardly show any helicity tracks across much of Central/South Alabama? Trend? Just saying
Click to expand...
There was a twitter thread about CAMs not showing UH tracks and somebody mentioned that storm updraft tilt can prevent major UH tracks from showing up. Not quite sure how much that applies here.
 
HRRR seems to confirm what other models (especially the WRF runs) have been trying to imply, in that the highest threat area might be riding a distinct thermal boundary up my way, following the early precip round... while CAMs really aren't aggressive on warm sector convection I would not count it out as parameters/obs sometimes > models this close to the event
 
You can see that on the 00z run, big ol plume of 70 dews and a decent temperature gradient right where the strongest cells break out... wouldn't give tons of credence to the HRRR if it was alone in its thinking but this has been a really steady suggestion by numerous models. Also showing backed winds in this area... pretty consistent hints this could be the place to watch here unless the warm sector REALLY takes off. Few days ago there was a very slight suggestion of a mesolow forming in NE MS near the heavier convection; here's hoping that doesn't happen to back winds further
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I will say at this point I'll be very surprised if we get a high risk on the first day one outlook given convective mode, early precip, and warm sector uncertainties. Would've probably been upgraded immediately a few years ago, but highs require supreme confidence nowadays. If models don't downtrend (one can argue at least the CAMs are already trying to, BUT we're in the window now where obs begin to overtake modeling, and regardless of models the shear and thermodynamic profiles are still nuts) still could certainly see an upgrade on the 13z or 1630z outlook.
 
Reed is truly an interesting guy.
He makes me scratch my head sometimes, but Dr. Timmer sure does love meteorology and is passionate about the subject!
 
I do not expect a high risk at midnight. If we do get one, it will be the lunch update. This event is reminding me of April 28, 2014
 
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Maybe even 20z, honestly. 4/28/14 wasn't upgraded until then. Really wanna see some D1 obs before panicking.
 
First hope everybody is doing great and safe and have a Happy Easter. I'm a meteorology buff and always read this forum. Some of the brightest folks are literally on this very forum.
This will be a very interesting system in my opinion. Could be extreme, could be a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, but I personally think again imo you will see a more northern trend in terms of the tornadic threats. I've noticed lately models have been too farth south with the main threats. Also I feel more towards the actual low you will such much more instability than what models are showing. In my opinion I feel like Mid Central Tennessee will be the hotspot.
In present tense right now it's a craps game what is going to unfold for tommorow. But from what I see in terms of the models, historical aspects, etc I feel that's what's going to play out.
 
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