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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

It doesn't surprise me to see that the threat for Central AL is starting to become less certain. Seems like the models usually come out swinging a few days in advance of a system and then pull back the reigns big time within 24 hours of the main event. That's why it's best not to pay much attention to all of the "pretty colors" maps.
 
Really hope the HRRR is overdoing it as it has sometimes. Do not like the look of that open threatening warm sector and the end of the world starting in Mississippi.
 
Equus said:
Really hope the HRRR is overdoing it as it has sometimes. Do not like the look of that open threatening warm sector and the end of the world starting in Mississippi.
Click to expand...
Plus you're seeing the 1st wave, warm sector development all the way back into C LA, and developing supercells on the cold front. That would be a true worst case scenario.
 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
840 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
South Central Texas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 840 PM
until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely

SUMMARY...A few intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to
track eastward across the watch area through the late evening and
overnight hours. Storms will be capable of very large hail and
tornadoes, along with locally damaging wind gusts.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Hondo TX to 45 miles
north of Victoria TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 100...WW 101...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.

...Hart
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Screen Shot 2020-04-11 at 20.46.15.png

New tornado watch up for SW Texas and parts of central Texas. Includes both San Antonio and Austin metros. :(
 
From American WX:
WWUS40 KWNS 120135
WWP2

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020

WT 0102
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES : 50%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 70%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2.
 
9f40b4db590a7d38e50bb4b20d9e93ee-png.jpg

This might be why they went such high probabilities on that watch. That lone supercell coming out of Mexico looks very impressive on radar. It's coming out of a pocket of 3500 CAPE into a highly sheared environment, and for the next couple hours at least should be all by itself.
 
brianc33710 said:
Yeah, but its not even either. Notice how Greenville has increased to 58, while Monroeville is just 38. Is this due to a lag in the observation updates? There shouldn't be a 20 deg difference, since even the BMX NWS has Demopolis at 50.
Click to expand...

We went up 20 degrees in about 6 or 7 hours here in Austin. Tornado Watch issued for now thru 4 a,m.
 
That one supercell might carry those watch probs alone the way it looks. Incredible BWER on that a little earlier
 
I'm more surprised it's verifying the HRRR's aggressive SigTor readings.
The 4z run has the cell area in Mexico above a 10 STP, 7s in the Del Rio area at 7z. That blob of high STP values begins to move eastward at the 10z to more central Texas region, but it loses a little intensity doing so (to 4s and 5s). If we took the HRRR into account, I would say the Del Rio area looks the most intense as of right now, but the 4 and 5 STPs aren't "nothing".
 
Aaand that's going to either hit KDFX or sideswipe it from the look of things. Talk about getting a low level scan...
 
I really hope somebody is on that storm and streaming it. I'd love to see the structure.
 
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