gangstonc
Member
That is an aggressive solution. Warm front very far north with big storms on it. Pretty clear warm sector ripe for action.
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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
Kory
Member
We should have a pretty good handle on the synoptics of this now that the system is over (and has been for a couple days now) the RAOB network. When it was over the Pacific, we saw wild swings in the models due to lack of aircraft data. That shouldn't be much of an issue now.
What makes this tricky is the nature of getting like pieces of energy ahead of the main trough axis that can drive convection/mess up wind fields. That is what is kicking off the MCS overnight that will move into North Louisiana tomorrow. The nature of the upper level flow doesn't favor back building and with the more extended CAMs (convective allowing model), it has shown pretty good resurgence of moisture behind the midday complex of rain.
brianc33710
Member
Birm
Birmingham sits at 34. Pell City has the highest dewpoint in Cen AL w/ 43.
gangstonc
Member
Amazing changes expected.
- Moderator
- #445
No
ONeal_Pierce
Member
Looks like the DPs are already working up from the gulf.
Casie
Member
Is that a rain shaft or a wedge on Cory Ecton's feed? www.livestormchasing.com
James stormspotter
Member
Is there going to be a high risk
Casie
Member
Yep, it's let up a bit now. At first glance I was like "WHOA!" though, lol
GTWXAlum
Member
Too early to say, I'd say likely not on the first outlook for tomorrow (the 6z one), but depending how things evolve overnight into Sunday morning a high risk is *possible* on the 13z or later updates. Especially if the warm sector looks like it will be relatively uncontaminated with junk convection.
Also, hi everybody! Its been awhile
Bevo
Member
I've seen on and off blips of tornado-warned activity in that area. That blob of storms is headed into Breckenridge right now.
Out of the three, I'd say the tail one going over Albany now appears to be the strongest. Looks like it'll take about an hour to cross the square svr thunder warned area.
brianc33710
Member
Yeah, but its not even either. Notice how Greenville has increased to 58, while Monroeville is just 38. Is this due to a lag in the observation updates? There shouldn't be a 20 deg difference, since even the BMX NWS has Demopolis at 50.
gangstonc
Member
I think it’s probable a lag in update. DP has risen 7 degrees here in the last few hours.
Equus
Member
I like watching the surface obs map on the southeast SPC mesoanalyis sector to look at large scale trends... dews right on the Gulf Coast nearing 60 already
brianc33710
Member
I thought that the models updated every 6 hours. The last SPC update was at 12:35 CDT, 7.5 hrs ago.
brianc33710
Member
The BMX sites will update momentarily.
The SPC forecasts are not models. They issue 2 day 2 outlooks a day. The next outlook for Sunday will be the day 1 outlook issued around midnight CDT.
Not wasting anytime...
Bevo
Member
The Day 1 update REALLY extended northward. Wow!
SPC did not implement the eastward extension of the tornado watch yet.
The north cells of the Breckenridge blob have dissipated, but the southern cell REALLY is being stubborn...
Split right-mover SE of San Angelo way down south.
Bow-like line of cells moving SE in the crease of the panhandle/OK NW of Wichita Falls is producing golf ball hail and 70 mph winds.
SPC did not implement the eastward extension of the tornado watch yet.
The north cells of the Breckenridge blob have dissipated, but the southern cell REALLY is being stubborn...
Split right-mover SE of San Angelo way down south.
Bow-like line of cells moving SE in the crease of the panhandle/OK NW of Wichita Falls is producing golf ball hail and 70 mph winds.