Equus
Member
To be fair, it looks like the EF2+ preliminary rating is from NWS New Orleans; I don't know if JAN has said much at all yet
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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
Shakespeare2016
Member
I wonder if they may be calling a QRT team or Tim Marshall.
J-Rab
Member
I’m in west Hattiesburg area (Sumrall actually) and there are definitely EF5 indicators around here. There are neighborhoods that it didn’t miss by much that have $10-$20M dollar homes in Lake Serene and Canebreak. There are a lot of rural farming families that have huge, newer brick homes scattered all around.
Having said that, you could be right about the path of the first strong tornado. Bassfield/Seminary/Soso/Pachuta (and all in between) is about as rural as it gets. Particularly Bassfield. There could be some well constructed homes on farms that it hit (like I mentioned above), but I’d wager most of the homes are older and probably not good DI’s.
It was on the ground for a pretty good distance, so perhaps it got a few good DI’s along the way. I hope it did because from what I could tell, that thing deserves at least an EF4 rating and perhaps an EF5. It was super intense.
This is definitely higher than EF2 damage. Wouldn't be shocked if we actually ended up with two EF4s out of that lead supercell, since I'm pretty sure it cycled before forming again near Bassfield.
warneagle
Member
Yeah I think you can justify EF4 for Bassfield. The contextual damage seems to support that.
Equus
Member
The truly unfortunate thing about getting high end DIs is that it usually requires massive suffering, death, and destruction to do so; still, I definitely hope that after all the destruction that was wrought regardless, there's something in the damage path that would lead to a rating indicative of its true level of violence. I have little doubt that there was absolutely EF5 potential somewhere along its track, though probably over forest somewhere. The TDS height + VROT for the Bassfield tornado is indicative of an extremely violent tornado and on the chart that goes around comparing such radar based factors to previous ratings, it's worlds above EF3 or below. Wish I could find the source for that.
brianc33710
Member
I haven't kept up with everything today. But did the SPC ever expand the moderate risk N & E? Much of the damage and casualties seemed to have taken part in what was the enhanced area.
Oooooh I had no idea. I thought Bassfield was in the JAN area of responsibility. My bad.
Equus
Member
Well apparently LIX has rated the deadly segment in Walthall County with slabbed homes and fatalities EF2, so we're off to a frustrating start even without JAN's path segments
You have got to be kidding me. That is absolutely ridiculous.
Equus
Member
Now that COULD be the initial tornado before the massive violent wedge. We'll see...
J-Rab
Member
That 2013 tornado, though in fairly close proximity to yesterday’s big one, hit completely different types of neighborhoods. The 2013 EF4 hit the newer, growing part of Hattiesburg when it was at peak intensity. There are some very new, very nice neighborhoods that it went through.
Yesterday’s storm, from what I can tell, missed pretty much every newer neighborhood and hit mostly older homes in very rural areas that have little wealth. To me, that makes it all the more tragic.
But people worried about good DI’s are right to be concerned. Plotting it out last night, I couldn’t really find much at all that might suffice. That’s going off of a map and memory though, so I could be wrong. I rarely ever get out that way.
I hope you’re right.
Equus
Member
The number of tornadoes and paths from those two cells is probably going to make the posted ratings confusing until we get maps
Kory
Member
Considering NWS New Orleans went high end EF3 with the NOLA tornado in 2017 and the damage wasn’t even close to that, I’m honestly shocked.
We must be misunderstanding something here..
Shakespeare2016
Member
It is listed as an EF2+ so I am wondering if New Orleans may be calling in a QRT team.
Equus
Member
I'm very confused, I'm hoping the preliminary rating is either for the initial tornado before the big one OR the worst of the damage is across the county line; could also be a very early preliminary rating but if so you'd think they'd prelim it at EF3
It's prelim, relax people.
And yes Walthall County is LIX's responsibility, Bassfield is in Jefferson Davis County, which is JAN's responsibility.
And yes Walthall County is LIX's responsibility, Bassfield is in Jefferson Davis County, which is JAN's responsibility.