Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

[Equus]

Instability trends are certainly scary. Can't see any mitigating factor that doesn't still hit someone somewhere with a strong tornado...

I know people keep wanting to throw in 4/27 comparisons (as will happen for the next 30 years) but honestly it does remind me of the mesoscale setup, morning convection perhaps setting up a volatile boundary-laden corridor for warm sector cells to go nuts on way too close to home; hopefully that won't pan out but absolutely can't be ruled out

 

[TornadoFan]

Latest SREF Significant Tornado Ingredients. Big area of 90.

 

[warneagle]

As if the severe wasn't enough, there's also a Day 3 moderate risk of excessive rainfall...

 

[Weatherphreak]

I watched Brandon Spinner's stream from WAFF this morning and he was showing all the different ingredients going into this system. The Euro had the CAPE struggling to get above 200 in most of North Alabama. The GFS was a little better but had the best CAPE with what I'd imagine would the squall line around midnight. Everything else looked to be in place.

 

[Isaac Williams]

As if the severe wasn't enough, there's also a Day 3 moderate risk of excessive rainfall...

yeah - our mountain areas here in NC will be primed for flooding with the daytime rain we're expecting here.

 

[Kory]

I watched Brandon Spinner's stream from WAFF this morning and he was showing all the different ingredients going into this system. The Euro had the CAPE struggling to get above 200 in most of North Alabama. The GFS was a little better but had the best CAPE with what I'd imagine would the squall line around midnight. Everything else looked to be in place.

And he’s incorrect in saying that.

 

[bwalk]

This is the NAM STP for 10pm Sunday night. (info is a couple of runs old). This is an in-the-dark nighttime disaster for central to N. Alabama if it were to verify.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This is the NAM STP for 10pm Sunday night. (info is a couple of runs old). This is an in-the-dark nighttime disaster if it were to verify.

View attachment 2727

Wow. All I can say

 

[xJownage]

Multiple supercells in the warm sector, but I'm seeing some red flags that the squall that's supposed to come in behind the first wave might be just as dangerous.

This sounding is from N MS at 00z, behind the first wave of supercells and in front of the predicted squall. The shear looks more than good enough to support at least semi-discrete supercells coming out of the line, and this sounding is even more explosive than some of the ones in E MS/W AL. Is anybody else seeing the potential for two rounds of tornadic supercells with this system?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Multiple supercells in the warm sector, but I'm seeing some red flags that the squall that's supposed to come in behind the first wave might be just as dangerous.

This sounding is from N MS at 00z, behind the first wave of supercells and in front of the predicted squall. The shear looks more than good enough to support at least semi-discrete supercells coming out of the line, and this sounding is even more explosive than some of the ones in E MS/W AL. Is anybody else seeing the potential for two rounds of tornadic supercells with this system?

Yes, absolutely.

 

[Richardjacks]

Finally got a look at the 12z cams, that round near bham around 3pm looks just crazy

Yes, absolutely.

Yes, that is what is so concerning to me, there is more than one opportunity for this system to reach its full potential. I could see some areas with likely more than one, and possibly even more than two threats...and all of those look equally dangerous.

 

[Richardjacks]

Another thing is the SRH and how much of values are loaded in the lowest levels...a nuance that can make tornadoes reach full potential strength and longevity.

 

[Justin Hindman]

My thought's on the risk area. I really think we could get a big High Risk area. Excuse the messiness, only had paint to work off of from the office.

 

[xJownage]

I would think it'd end up slightly further north extent with that secondary line looking to be on the north side of the risk area.

 

[Parysa]

Scott Martin's latest update at ABC 33/40 shows this for Sunday night at 10pm.

 

[xJownage]

Yeah, the heavy STP that far north is really scary if discrete supercells are the mode in that area. I have a very close friend who lives with her family in the Nashville area and I would hate to see a repeat.

 

[Brice]

Each time I look at the SPC outlook I gain more confidence of a High Risk area, by the time day one comes around there might be a 45% chance of a tornado within a 25 mile radius, that's concerning

 

[NWMSGuy]

Looks like the highest values of the STP engulf most of Northwest Ms before moving East on the 18z.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Looks like the highest values of the STP engulf most of Northwest Ms before moving East on the 18z.

I hope that this is not the case too many people I love are in this are. I have already been texting them today to make plans for this. Last time everyone was at work. I am really afraid what might happen if any tornadoes hit a town directly in Mississippi or Alabama since everyone will be at home.

 

[JayF]

I hope that this is not the case too many people I love are in this are. I have already been texting them today to make plans for this. Last time everyone was at work. I am really afraid what might happen if any tornadoes hit a town directly in Mississippi or Alabama since everyone will be at home.

Honestly at the time frame of the storms to move through, most people would have been home regardless. But we are going to have to watch this closely and those that have reach make sure people are aware this is coming.