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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

xJownage said:
To be fair, the NAM 3km loves squalls on seemingly every big event. Every other model is hitting Dixie hard and the NAM just throws messy convection and a giant squall line despite the high parameters.
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That was a key point of some of the responses...especially Jason Davis a forecaster from NWS Birmingham.
 
Austin Dawg said:
I hope that this is not the case too many people I love are in this are. I have already been texting them today to make plans for this. Last time everyone was at work. I am really afraid what might happen if any tornadoes hit a town directly in Mississippi or Alabama since everyone will be at home.
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That's what i'm concerned about.
 
Something that probably won’t be answered till Sunday but 4/27/11 tornadoes were very visible and not so much rain wrapped. If this pans out and produces multiple violent tornadoes I wonder if they’ll be as visible? Obviously doesn’t matter but just wondering if it’d be worth trying to chase any of these storms.
 
JayF said:
Honestly at the time frame of the storms to move through, most people would have been home regardless. But we are going to have to watch this closely and those that have reach make sure people are aware this is coming.
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I would think that everyone being close to home is a good thing. Also, I don't think that we will have an issue where a morning round of storms will knock power out for 100000s of people. That created a nightmare 9 years ago. And, I doubt that everyone has already forgotten about that superoutbreak. This is not an April 1974 to April 2011 gap.

The only issue is that the weather is cool and dry right now. Leading up to 27 April 2011 the weather was unseasonably warm for days. This could good and bad. This could mean that there's less time for the weather to warm to the level needed for the worst storms. But, this weather could deceive those not aware of the forecast that severe storms are on the way.
 
There's definitely time for a wrench to be thrown in things, happened with 5/20 and many other events, but definitely time to start planning just in case nothing tempers it. If most models are still screaming death at, say, 24 hours out, and then D1 obs starts matching or outdoing the advection being modeled, then I can start bracing for panic mode. Excessive anxiety doesn't do anyone any favors... very aware of that first hand
 
Kory said:
That was a key point of some of the responses...especially Jason Davis a forecaster from NWS Birmingham.
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This Twitter thread over on Tony Lyza's account has some pertinent information regarding the convective NAM's current handling of this situation:



(Click the timestamp to see the full thread.)
 
The extent of rain wrapping in general over the outbreak area can probably be anticipated by keeping an eye on hodos, not fully remembering the exact details but I think stronger upper level speed shear would lead to less precip falling near the updraft base... Don't quote me on that though
 
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Tennie said:
This Twitter thread over on Tony Lyza's account has some pertinent information regarding the convective NAM's current handling of this situation:



(Click the timestamp to see the full thread.)
Click to expand...

It’s also interesting to see some of the people who clearly have less knowledge of Dixie Alley (not a knock on them) assert a little band of convection like that will inhibit advection of an unstable airmass from a very close Gulf of Mexico. Even used the Illinois example. Only thing is Illinois doesn’t have a large water body adjacent to it...one with well above average water temperatures. Dixie does...
 
xJownage said:
To be fair, the NAM 3km loves squalls on seemingly every big event. Every other model is hitting Dixie hard and the NAM just throws messy convection and a giant squall line despite the high parameters.
Click to expand...
The morning convection spared millions more of those living in the midwest and upper south from the discreet supercells that developed across the southeast on 27 April 2011. There have been several times that the SPC goes High and a squall line comes in to "save the day" from the long-track strong-violent tornadoes. Last April or so over Texas & plains had 27 April 2011 parameters but turned out to be a bit of a "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency." Yes, there was an outbreak that caused death and destruction, but the strongest tornadoes were "only" EF-3s.
 
brianc33710 said:
The morning convection spared millions more of those living in the midwest and upper south from the discreet supercells that developed across the southeast on 27 April 2011. There have been several times that the SPC goes High and a squall line comes in to "save the day" from the long-track strong-violent tornadoes. Last April or so over Texas & plains had 27 April 2011 parameters but turned out to be a bit of a "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency." Yes, there was an outbreak that caused death and destruction, but the strongest tornadoes were "only" EF-3s.
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I believe you're referring to 5/20, and if that's the case it wasn't the early day convection that saved anybody, but the unexpectedly stout cap that killed every storm that tried to fire in the warm sector. Morning convection isn't necessarily something that will stop an event when you have such an unstable airmass still, as even with the morning convection the models are still showing a very unstable airmass moving into the region quickly. The northern extent of the higher-end tornado threat depends on how far north that air gets.
 
brianc33710 said:
The morning convection spared millions more of those living in the midwest and upper south from the discreet supercells that developed across the southeast on 27 April 2011. There have been several times that the SPC goes High and a squall line comes in to "save the day" from the long-track strong-violent tornadoes. Last April or so over Texas & plains had 27 April 2011 parameters but turned out to be a bit of a "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency." Yes, there was an outbreak that caused death and destruction, but the strongest tornadoes were "only" EF-3s.
Click to expand...

It's quite rare for the ingredients for a super outbreak to even come together at all, and even rarer still when the high ceiling gets approached or met. Any number of things can happen that could cause the situation to basically become much less dire than the worst-case scenario. Still, it's best to watch out and be prepared, even on the seemingly low-ceiling events (such as 3/2-3/3 this year), let alone the high-ceiling ones.
 
But to reiterate, this is nothing like 4/27/11....
 
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