Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

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andyhb

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That area of damage is from near the intersection of Cedar Valley Road and FM 2843. The sign belongs to the Victory Baptist Church.
 
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andyhb

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Well the 00z HRRR is certainly concerning across the Mid South tomorrow. Depiction is mixed mode (but with a number of supercells), but the parameter space across much of the region supports significant tornadoes with very impressive mid level lapse rates, plenty of moisture, and strong low level shear. We'll have to see how tonights convection from Texas behaves since it seems there's a pretty mature MCS ongoing right now with a cold pool, but the timing of the mid-level shortwave trough rounding the base of the parent upper low is pretty ideal.
 
Brice Wood

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andyhb said:
Well the 00z HRRR is certainly concerning across the Mid South tomorrow. Depiction is mixed mode (but with a number of supercells), but the parameter space across much of the region supports significant tornadoes with very impressive mid level lapse rates, plenty of moisture, and strong low level shear. We'll have to see how tonights convection from Texas behaves since it seems there's a pretty mature MCS ongoing right now with a cold pool, but the timing of the mid-level shortwave trough rounding the base of the parent upper low is pretty ideal.
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Should they extend the moderate risk north?
 
JPWX

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andyhb said:
Well the 00z HRRR is certainly concerning across the Mid South tomorrow. Depiction is mixed mode (but with a number of supercells), but the parameter space across much of the region supports significant tornadoes with very impressive mid level lapse rates, plenty of moisture, and strong low level shear. We'll have to see how tonights convection from Texas behaves since it seems there's a pretty mature MCS ongoing right now with a cold pool, but the timing of the mid-level shortwave trough rounding the base of the parent upper low is pretty ideal.
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Looks to me like the MCS looses steam once it gets into Mississippi based on the 00z run.
 
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andyhb

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Brice Wood said:
Should they extend the moderate risk north?
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I don't think so, I'd be worried about expanding the current risk in the south and potentially – depending on convective evolution through tomorrow morning and what the morning observations/models look like – adding a high risk.
 
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TH2002

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Velocity is next to useless in a radar hole like this, but on L2 reflectivity looks like it could be trying to drop something near Belmond
Screenshot_20220412-184651_wX.jpg
 
warneagle

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Pulled this from the area out ahead of the big supercell the HRRR generates in MS tomorrow. Supercells in this type of environment would be no bueno.

1649814756469.png
 
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JWard87

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TH2002 said:
Velocity is next to useless in a radar hole like this, but on L2 reflectivity looks like it could be trying to drop something near Belmond
View attachment 13427
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Hard to tell, but you can see a mild couplet in your upper-right screen cap. There needs to be a warning on it in case— even if there’s nothing down ATM.
 
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