Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[warneagle]

Good thing that cell is moving away from this area. Not sure I've ever seen a VTP that high before.

 

[andyhb]

That area of damage is from near the intersection of Cedar Valley Road and FM 2843. The sign belongs to the Victory Baptist Church.

 

[TH2002]

Looks like a new cell immediately N of Fort Dodge that's trying to spin

 

[OHWX97]

Quite the awful radar hole in northern Iowa.

 

[Austin Dawg]

I don't know if you are interested in this but these are the tops of the storms about 60 miles NorthEast near Temple.

 

[Equus]

Very impressive day, Iowa doing Iowa things with a scary Texas surprise. Now we see how that translates into tomorrow...

 

[atrainguy]

 

[atrainguy]

Screenshot from Ryan Hall Yall's stream of the tornado illuminated by lightning on Vince Waelti's livestream.

 

[atrainguy]

Sorry for spamming, but here's railcam in Big Sandy, TX, which is under a tornado warning and just had sirens going off, in case wants to watch this storm. Lots of lightning.

 

[Timbo64]

Sorry for spamming, but here's railcam in Big Sandy, TX, which is under a tornado warning and just had sirens going off, in case wants to watch this storm. Lots of lightning.

A Virtual Railfan or a RailStream webcam located in a severe warned area is never spamming, IMHO!
A lot of people don't know about these RR webcams.

 

[Jpgood97]

TDS south of Woodbine, Iowa


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Evan]

Radar holes never cease to enrage me considering the insane amount of money this country has wasted on absolutely foolish or inconsequential things.

 

[andyhb]

Well the 00z HRRR is certainly concerning across the Mid South tomorrow. Depiction is mixed mode (but with a number of supercells), but the parameter space across much of the region supports significant tornadoes with very impressive mid level lapse rates, plenty of moisture, and strong low level shear. We'll have to see how tonights convection from Texas behaves since it seems there's a pretty mature MCS ongoing right now with a cold pool, but the timing of the mid-level shortwave trough rounding the base of the parent upper low is pretty ideal.

 

[172556]

Radar holes never cease to enrage me considering the insane amount of money this country has wasted on absolutely foolish or inconsequential things.

Same. I live in one.

 

[Brice Wood]

Well the 00z HRRR is certainly concerning across the Mid South tomorrow. Depiction is mixed mode (but with a number of supercells), but the parameter space across much of the region supports significant tornadoes with very impressive mid level lapse rates, plenty of moisture, and strong low level shear. We'll have to see how tonights convection from Texas behaves since it seems there's a pretty mature MCS ongoing right now with a cold pool, but the timing of the mid-level shortwave trough rounding the base of the parent upper low is pretty ideal.

Should they extend the moderate risk north?

 

[JPWX]

Well the 00z HRRR is certainly concerning across the Mid South tomorrow. Depiction is mixed mode (but with a number of supercells), but the parameter space across much of the region supports significant tornadoes with very impressive mid level lapse rates, plenty of moisture, and strong low level shear. We'll have to see how tonights convection from Texas behaves since it seems there's a pretty mature MCS ongoing right now with a cold pool, but the timing of the mid-level shortwave trough rounding the base of the parent upper low is pretty ideal.

Looks to me like the MCS looses steam once it gets into Mississippi based on the 00z run.

 

[andyhb]

Should they extend the moderate risk north?

I don't think so, I'd be worried about expanding the current risk in the south and potentially – depending on convective evolution through tomorrow morning and what the morning observations/models look like – adding a high risk.

 

[TH2002]

Velocity is next to useless in a radar hole like this, but on L2 reflectivity looks like it could be trying to drop something near Belmond

 

[warneagle]

Pulled this from the area out ahead of the big supercell the HRRR generates in MS tomorrow. Supercells in this type of environment would be no bueno.

 

[JWard87]

Velocity is next to useless in a radar hole like this, but on L2 reflectivity looks like it could be trying to drop something near Belmond
View attachment 13427

Hard to tell, but you can see a mild couplet in your upper-right screen cap. There needs to be a warning on it in case— even if there’s nothing down ATM.