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Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

tennessee storm chaser said:
Agree 100 percent , very large 30 perxent
Now expanded east also on day 4. Lapse rates nearly off the chart , with cape increasing over the midsouth Tennessee valley regions s
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Thinking as now. Day 4 , if HIGH risk is warranted , think east Arkansas nw Mississippi/ into sw Tennessee as of now. With rather large moderate stretching just outside the high area .
 
Still at the fringes of the NAM's range but taken at face value that's already an ugly setup for most of Arkansas and western Tennessee by 18z on Wednesday. The site doesn't want to let me post images for whatever reason, but I pulled a sounding from the Little Rock area (still south of the most extreme modeled parameters) that showed 2500 J/kg CAPE and 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH.
 
One thing that could constrain Wednesday (and even more so Thursday) is the fact that, owing to high-latitude blocking, there will be some interference from the subtropics that could contaminate the warm sector, or at least limit the longitudinal extent of the best instability axis. If this event were more solely influenced by the polar jet, the subtropical influence would be less of a problem, but in this case prefrontal convection due to the subtropical jet and a leading impulse on Wednesday morning could limit the ceiling of the “main event” later in the day. On the past several EPS runs the main trough also looks more and more occluded/sheared-out vs. earlier during the main part of the event on Wednesday. Most big outbreaks feature a pronounced ML ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands, but in this case high-latitude blocking over AK increases the subtropical influence.
 
Enhanced expanded south and north on Tuesday, VERY large hatched sig area. Based on the SPC's discussion, seems it could be for large hail but would not be surprised to see a smaller hatched sig for tornadoes and wind somewhere once we hit Day 2.


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Casuarina Head said:
One thing that could constrain Wednesday (and even more so Thursday) is the fact that, owing to high-latitude blocking, there will be some interference from the subtropics that could contaminate the warm sector, or at least limit the longitudinal extent of the best instability axis. If this event were more solely influenced by the polar jet, the subtropical influence would be less of a problem, but in this case prefrontal convection due to the subtropical jet and a leading impulse on Wednesday morning could limit the ceiling of the “main event” later in the day. On the past several EPS runs the main trough also looks more and more occluded/sheared-out vs. earlier during the main part of the event on Wednesday. Most big outbreaks feature a pronounced ML ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands, but in this case high-latitude blocking over AK increases the subtropical influence.
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I seen many big outbreaks here south /midsouth with negative nao… still
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Wednesday is one of those odd scenarios for the lower Mississippi Valley/mid-South where it seems like the main surface low/triple point is too far away for a significant event in the region.
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Not with strong height falls, triple point action will be further north … areas along region pine bluff Arkansas up towards Paducah Kentucky look concerning. Day 4 Wednesday
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Wednesday is one of those odd scenarios for the lower Mississippi Valley/mid-South where it seems like the main surface low/triple point is too far away for a significant event in the region.
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Depends on your definition for Mid-south, judging off Euro/NAM there is somewhat a sig tor threat extending into parts of Central MS/south AR, though I do think the main event will be further north.
 
Not to say this will be similar, but I get the idea that Wed. will remind us of Mayfield or Super Tuesday. In my area, looks like we'll escape the brunt of the system.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Well, NAM just got a little interesting over MBY for Wednesday, although frontal timing is still a little too fast to match up with peak heating, and winds are rather unidirectional.
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I'm glad somebody else noticed this. I was hoping it was just me and maybe something was wrong with my connection to the NAM because all I see are PDS when I look up and down that system from North to South. I'm gonna wait till we get a little bit closer to the event before I start pushing the panic button.
 
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