Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat (4 Viewers)

Equus

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Ironically looks like the touchdowns tonight were south and west of the radar, as opposed to the extremely strong (but broad) spin noted in N Tuscaloosa/S Walker; QLCS events are decidedly not fun to warn for
 

Timhsv

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I still think there are potential problems with messy convection because of widespread initiation, the potential for a rapid blowup of convection in Louisiana and central/south Mississippi as the stuff in the Delta to the Memphis area is trying to form that may cause issues with the low-level jet, and also the caveat we've had all along... deep-layer shear possibly not being strong enough to organize convection until after things get messy. If the deep-layer shear magnitude is not strong enough to favor supercells before the convection initiates or while it's still very isolated at the beginning of the event, then convection will end up being very messy with unorganized, short-lived updrafts... and that may open the door for this to turn into a big, rainy grunge-fest so that even the prefrontal QLCS underperforms. I'm not really to turn my back on the thing, but I am HIGHLY unconvinced in something higher-end happening later today, even with just one or two storms.
You were dead on Fred. I was too aggressive with deep layer shear being more prominent. I noticed the liner aspect when I woke up around 2:30 PM yesterday and saw as such.
 
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xJownage

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I mean, looking back at the setup on Tuesday morning, we were looking at a semi-discrete mode with what appeared to be two rounds of potential tornadoes in both the warm sector and the MCS on the cold front. Everybody was sleeping on it due to the hype of the IA setup, but by the time it got picked up, it was already downtrending.

In hindsight, that forecast with prefrontal semi-discretes and a QLCS on the cold front was never all that realistic in my opinion.
 

Equus

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As always, the inevitable weakening QLCS tornado spam in central AL did happen - so far we got an eighteen mile long (!) EF1 and an EF0 that pretty much followed in the damage path of a stronger tornado from 2/3 with yet more surveying to go; it has been a highly prolific early season...

Screenshot_20220415-021431-943.png
 

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