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BMX going with a SVR instead of a TOR. That's an awfully strong circulation to drop the TOR. Guess they'll go with a SVR unless we get a TDS.
You were dead on Fred. I was too aggressive with deep layer shear being more prominent. I noticed the liner aspect when I woke up around 2:30 PM yesterday and saw as such.I still think there are potential problems with messy convection because of widespread initiation, the potential for a rapid blowup of convection in Louisiana and central/south Mississippi as the stuff in the Delta to the Memphis area is trying to form that may cause issues with the low-level jet, and also the caveat we've had all along... deep-layer shear possibly not being strong enough to organize convection until after things get messy. If the deep-layer shear magnitude is not strong enough to favor supercells before the convection initiates or while it's still very isolated at the beginning of the event, then convection will end up being very messy with unorganized, short-lived updrafts... and that may open the door for this to turn into a big, rainy grunge-fest so that even the prefrontal QLCS underperforms. I'm not really to turn my back on the thing, but I am HIGHLY unconvinced in something higher-end happening later today, even with just one or two storms.
Tornado emergency near Hardy, AR, spotters reporting large tornado